The St. Louis Blues take on the Winnipeg Jets in Game 7 of this best-of-7 series in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs Sunday. Puck drop from Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba, is set for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Blues vs. Jets odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Series: Tied 3-3, with the home team winning every game

After looking like a shell of themselves in Winnipeg in Game 5, the Blues demoralized the Jets and chased likely Vezina Trophy-winning G Connor Hellebuyck for the third straight road game in a 5-2 finish in Game 6 Friday. From a stats perspective, the Blues really didn’t dominate the way the score says. The Jets won 59% of the faceoffs, went 2-for-6 on the power play (the Blues were 0-for-6), the Jets outhit them 40-36, and the shots were close at 27-23 St. Louis. The difference was the Blues’ toughness, the blue line and their fourth line.

The Blues’ fourth line, affectionately known as the “WTF” line for the last names of RW Nathan Walker, LW Alexei Toropchenko and C Radek Faksa, scored 5 points in Game 6. Walker and Toropchenko each had a goal, blue-liners Philip Broberg and Cam Fowler also had a goal, and captain C Brayden Schenn had the fifth score. G Jordan Binnington made some acrobatic saves while his counterpart shrunk in net yet again on the road.

The Jets were missing C Mark Scheifele, but got RW Nikolaj Ehlers back, and he looked good with 3 shots on goal. Scheifele’s absence was noticeable as the team got nothing at 5-on-5. LW Kyle Connor and C Cole Perfetti both scored on the power play.

It really comes down to Hellebuyck, though, who was chased after 5 goals beat him on 23 shots in 2 periods. He is last in a lot of categories among goalies at 5-on-5. He has given up 18 goals at 5-on-5, which is 3 more than anyone else in the league. Yes, they’ve played 6 games in this series, but Hellebuyck has seen 30 minutes less of action than his counterpart due to being yanked 3 times. Hellebuyck’s SV% at 5-on-5 is a paltry .814. He has stopped 16 of 26 high-danger chances at 5-on-5, which is an NHL-worst .615 SV%. Now he has been a different player at home, but in Game 7, all bets are off because the heat is on.

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Blues at Jets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:34 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blues +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Jets -185 (bet $185 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blues +1.5 (-175) | Jets -1.5 (+145)Over/Under (O/U): 5 (O: -120 | U: +100)Blues at Jets projected goalies

Jordan Binnington (28-22-5, 2.69 GAA, .900 SV%, 3 SO in regular season) vs. Connor Hellebuyck (47-12-3, 2.01 GAA, .925 SV%, 8 SO in regular season)

Binner stopped 21 of 23 shots in Game 6. He has allowed 11 goals on 108 shots at 5-on-5 in this series, which is about middle of the pack. It’s his work on high-danger chances that makes the difference. He has saved 26 of 34 high-danger chances at 5-on-5, and he’s 12-for-14 on those in the last 2 games. All the talk is about the run he inspired this team to get on in 2019 when he was an unflappable rookie. And he has been the backbone of this squad.

I outlined Hellebuyck’s trials and tribulations already, but look. He’s going to win the Vezina Trophy for the third time, and he’s going to be in heavy consideration for the Hart Trophy. He has been OK at home in this series, stopping 51 of 58. That’s still an .879 SV%, and when you factor in his disastrous games in The Lou, he has an .815 SV% these playoffs. If the defense can suffocate in front of him one more time, he will settle in.

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Blues at Jets picks and predictionsPrediction

Blues 4, Jets 2

Scheifele is a game-time decision for this one, and that is a big factor here. But both of these teams are banged up. The Blues have been without 26-goal-scoring winger Dylan Holloway all series, and they lost another cog with D Tyler Tucker going out with a knee injury. I look for Scheifele to go, and I look for a heated game. So much heat that it gets the best of Winnipeg, who have been emotional all series in the media.

The Blues have been playing with their backs against the wall for 2 1/2 months, and they seem to thrive on it. I look for them to punch Winnipeg in the mouth en route to punching their ticket to face Dallas.

I’m taking the BLUES (+150). This has already gone up from +135 Sunday morning.

Blues D Cam Fowler is tied for fourth in the NHL in points these playoffs and has a point in every game. Take CAM FOWLER OVER 0.5 POINTS (+105). I actually can’t believe it’s still at plus-money.

This series has gone Over every game except Game 2. Hellebuyck has given us no reason to expect a 2-1, 3-1 type of game. I could see a 3-2 final, but I’m expecting an empty-netter to find its way in with the desperation of a team keeping its season alive.

I’ll take the OVER 5 (-120).

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