It is an issue for many is mere semantics, but for Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas means defining the core of his strategy. What exactly is tanking, and should the Penguins do it?

“Tank for McKenna” is the slogan that the Penguins fanbase and others will adopt this season. Wins will be met as losses, and losses as wins, as fans operate under the assumption that losing gives them the best chance to land the latest phenom who could instantly turn a franchise’s rebuild into a quick contendership.

As a starting point, 93.7 The Fan host Jason Mackey and I debated this very topic Monday evening. In fact, Mackey’s contention that the Penguins should tank that spurred this column. You can hear our debate here.

Now, remember this key detail: Finishing with the worst record in the NHL only gives a team an 18.5% chance at drafting first overall. That means even losing the most games gives a team an 81.5% chance of NOT getting the first pick.

Edit: As some readers pointed out, there is a small chance of teams from outside the top 11 winning the lottery. The worst team does indeed have an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery, but a 25% chance of getting the top pick. PHN doesn’t feel that the statistical difference changes the column.

As a cautionary tale, the 10th and 14th place teams won the 2025 NHL Draft lottery. Are you picking up what I’m putting down?

Before jumping for joy each time the Penguins lose in the 2025-26 NHL season, we must lay out the full breadth and consequences in explicit detail. Not only does losing merely give a team a paltry two in 10 chance to win the lottery, but the consequences to the players and culture can be quite harsh and long-lasting.

How is a player such as Ville Koivunen or Owen Pickering supposed to grow into a “Pittsburgh Penguin” with full pride and their best game if they go into games not believing they can win or that their best doesn’t matter?

It’s a real question. Many organizations before them have earned the stench of losing. The Penguins have been extremely lucky to have been gifted by the hockey gods a pair of legends named Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby. In fact, the Penguins had just a 6% chance of getting Crosby because the NHL allowed all 30 teams into the 2005 Draft lottery on the basis of the canceled season, necessary to force the players’ union into accepting a salary cap.

Also, the NHL had long tired of teams tanking for the top pick — see also the 1983 Penguins, who waived their starting goalie for the unspeakable crime of getting on a hot streak. The NHL introduced the draft lottery in 1995.

So, tank, lose, stink, and get rewarded, right?

No. That tightrope between providing hope and limiting the team’s chances to be successful this season is a very fine and wobbly stretch of cable, if it can be navigated at all. Yet, Dubas must appear to be trying to build a winner because that weight of losing changes attitudes and cultures.

The Buffalo Sabres weren’t always a downtrodden laughing stock. The Detroit Red Wings were once the kings of the universe, and late-round draft picks blossomed into stars, in part because the culture and atmosphere brought out their very best. It’s not a coincidence that the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs have been able to plug into their lineup young players who quickly reach their potential. Being surrounded by some measure of talent and direction helps enormously.

Those are the very reasons that Crosby had a mutual negotiating partner for a two-year extension last summer; the team understands he creates culture, which provides a stepping stone to growth, and that absence would be a boulder upon the back of prospects getting their first taste of the NHL.

That’s also a strong argument to keep Bryan Rust.

The inverse is an unhappy place. What happens when the unending pain of losing and hopelessness crushes the locker room? That stink sticks to players. It affects them beyond the next game or week, or month. Bad habits emerge, and motivations change.

In bad situations, young players with promise become faded prospects.

If losing meant getting Gavin McKenna, this would be a different discussion. Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson, and Kris Letang would have been given handshakes and suitcases following last season. But not even the most fever-pitched gamblers would push all of their chips into the middle of the table and risk disaster for an 18.5% chance.

Dubas cannot cast the growing pool of prospects that may very well be 20 or 25 deep into the wilderness with only Crosby to lead the way and no guardrails.

Semantics? Perhaps. The narrow path Dubas must walk is maximizing his chances to call McKenna’s name while minimizing his chances to suffer greatly if he doesn’t. Call it whatever you like.