Pittsburgh Penguins’ Sidney Crosby (87) skates past Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, March 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
What if? The parallel between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers is thick with similarities, with the exception of an extraordinary divergence at a monumental inflection point.
Marian Hossa’s backhander fluttered just wide in Game 6 of the 2008 Stanley Cup Final, and the Detroit Red Wings held on to win the game and hoist the Stanley Cup. The young Penguins, led by generational talent Sidney Crosby, were painfully close to winning their first Cup (as a team).
In 2009, they earned another bite at the apple. In Game 6 of the ’09 Final, defenseman Rob Scuderi made a late game-saving shot block that was more of a kick save in the crease that forced Game 7. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury made a Cup-winning save in the final seconds, and the Penguins reversed their fate.
Crosby established himself. Forever, the Penguins’ core were champions. The organization made decisions with that fact, prolonging relationships until they won more Cups; desperation was not a factor for several years.
It took seven years to get back there, but when they did, there was something to draw upon, and they completed the dynasty. Crosby stuck around. Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury stuck around, too.
What if Scuderi didn’t block the shot in Game 6 or Fleury didn’t make the diving save on Nicklas Lidstrom, and the Penguins lost a second consecutive Cup Final?
How would the team and organization have dealt with the heartbreak? Would former GM Ray Shero have considered some of the enormous trade offers he was rumored to have received for Malkin?
Would Crosby have been happy enough to sign a 12-year contract in 2012 at the heavily discounted rate of $8.7 million per season?
There are also rumors that Shero had offers for Letang that he liked much more so than did the ownership.
The potential fallout from losing two straight Stanley Cup Finals despite an extraordinary core led by two future Hall of Fame centers is what Edmonton is currently dealing with.
As Edmonton center and the game’s best player, Connor McDavid, holes up somewhere in Ontario to quietly recoup both mentally and physically from the long 2024-25 season, there is legitimate doubt about a third chance. Beyond soft goaltending and inadequate depth, spoken in little more than a whisper around the league, is the persistent question of whether Edmonton can recapture enough fire through another 82-game regular season and playoff slog to get back to a third-straight shot at the Stanley Cup after having their hearts ripped out by the Florida Panthers twice in a row.
McDavid is eligible to sign a new contract, which would begin in the 2026-27 season, but has not yet done so. Edmonton GM Stan Bowman is paralyzed by the juxtaposition of being the best of the West but not being good enough to win the Cup … twice.
How would the Penguins and you be different had the young Crosby suffered the same fate?
Extrapolating Penguins Trade Talk
Penguins general manager admitted to the Cam and Strick podcast that teams have called about reacquiring their 2026 draft picks.
Read More: Trades? Dubas Says Teams Calling to Reacquire Picks; Talks Origin Story
There are only three teams to which that could apply: the San Jose Sharks (third-rounder), the Winnipeg Jets (second-rounder), and the St. Louis Blues (second-rounder).
In order to sign a restricted free agent, a team must be able to surrender its original draft pick as compensation; teams may not acquire picks from other teams to forfeit in an offer sheet transaction.
Given the current NHL restricted free agent compensation levels, an RFA who signs an offer sheet for less than just under $4.7 million would net his original team a second-round pick.
Last summer, Dubas aided the St. Louis Blues when he flipped their 2025 second-round pick back to them for a 2026 second-rounder and a 2025 third-rounder. St. Louis used the reacquired pick to sign Edmonton RFA Filip Broberg to an offer sheet, which Edmonton could not match.
Now, with not much deductive reasoning, we can figure out why those teams called Dubas to reacquire their picks. Duh.
And, with help from our friends at Puckpedia.com, we can see there are only seven skaters still eligible for an offer sheet.
From the bottom up, Donovan Sebrango (OTT), Rasmus Kupari (Winnipeg), Alexander Holtz (Vegas), Connor Zary (Calgary), Luke Evangelista (Nashville), Mason McTavish (Anaheim), and Marco Rossi (Minnesota).
We can further whittle down the list as the first names would not earn a contract worth a second-round pick (between $2.3 million and $4.68 million), and quite frankly, the first two names wouldn’t merit an offer worth a third-rounder (between $1.5 million and $2.3 million), either.
Offers above $4.68 million vault compensation from a second-rounder to a first and third-round pick.
So, we can probably take San Jose off the list. Would they give up a shot at Gavin McKenna or Keaton Verhoeff for McTavish or Rossi? Absolutely not.
Following our less-than Sir Arthur Conan Doyle deductive powers, Minnesota, Anaheim, Calgary, and Nashville can afford to match any offers.
But would Nashville or Calgary choose to match overly generous offers for Evangalista or Zary?
Evangelista, 23, had 32 points (10-22-32) in 68 games. He’s another one of Nashville’s softer, playmaking forwards, a list that included Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino, and Tommy Novak (all of whom passed through the Penguins last season. Tomasino and Novak remain).
Evangelista has some offensive talent and possibly yet untapped potential.
Would Calgary buck up and pay Zary, 23, close to $4.5 million? He had a mere 27 points last season, including 13 goals while playing a lot of right wing beside Nazem Kadri. The gritty forward has some offensive pop but hasn’t yet had his breakout season.
Would Winnipeg, which has between $3.9 and $5 million in salary cap space available, use most of it, hoping to sacrifice a late second-rounder as they add some youth into an aging lineup?
Zary would certainly fit with St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong’s desire for speedy, gritty forwards.
Or would either Winnipeg or St. Louis merely like their second-rounder back from the Penguins in order to exert some pressure on Minnesota or Anaheim, forcing either to the table for Rossi or McTavish, respectively?
If a team matches an offer sheet, the team cannot trade that player for one year. So, there would be some peril for Anaheim or Minnesota if an interested party that is willing and able to extend an offer sheet came calling.
While $4.68 million might be less than Rossi or McTavish want, deals can be uniquely structured, and it might be worthwhile to sign the deal, thus getting a raise on their current offers.
As Dubas noted, if any of those teams want to pay a fair price for their picks, he’s listening.
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