A little while ago, we wrote that we didn’t think that the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ Auston Matthews and William Nylander should play on the same line now that Mitch Marner has been traded. Our reasoning seemed straightforward: both Matthews and Nylander are “shoot-first” guys. Why stack two natural goal scorers together when you could spread the offence around?
We backed up our point by noting that over the last two seasons, Matthews led the team with 142 goals while Nylander was second with 125. That looked like enough evidence to us.
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But then one of our regular contributors, Windshear, pushed back. He suggested that our take on Nylander wasn’t quite right. Sure, Nylander scored 45 goals last season, but Windshear reminded us that in each of the previous four seasons, Nylander had more assists than goals. That raised a fair question: Do we have Nylander pegged wrong?
Looking Closer at the Numbers
Upon further investigation, Windshear was absolutely right. In fact, if you look at Nylander’s career totals, the evidence leans more toward playmaker than pure shooter. In the regular season, Nylander has 612 career points: 262 goals (43%) and 350 assists (57%). In the playoffs, his ratio is almost the same: 32 goals (45%) and 39 assists (55%) in 67 games.
Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander (John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
So while the highlight reels often show Nylander’s quick release, the bigger body of work suggests he’s every bit as much a setup guy.
The Shooting Story for Nylander
Another piece of the puzzle is how often Nylander shoots the puck. Early in his career, he averaged just over nine shots per 60 minutes. From 2021 through 2023, that number jumped to 11.2 shots per 60. That increase lines up with his climb into the upper tier of NHL scoring.
But here’s the kicker: last season, when he scored a career-high 45 goals, his shot rate actually dropped back down to 9.49 per 60. The difference? His shooting percentage skyrocketed to 17.8%, well above the 12.7–13.7% range he had posted in the four years preceding it.
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In other words, he wasn’t firing the puck more than usual—he was finishing at a much higher rate. That tells us last season’s goal total was less about him becoming more selfish with the puck and more about his efficiency when he did shoot.
Comparing Nylander to Matthews
To see the contrast, we lined Nylander up against Matthews. Matthews has 727 career points: 401 goals (55%) and 326 assists (45%). Over his career, Matthews has averaged 12.15 shots per 60 minutes, consistently higher than Nylander. Like Nylander, Matthews had a three-year stretch during which his shot rate increased (13.33 shots per 60 minutes). But last season, it dipped to 11.47—his lowest since his second year in the league, when he missed 20 games with a shoulder injury.
May 16, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) shoots and scores against the Florida Panthers during the third period in game six of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
The takeaway? Matthews is the truer “shoot-first” player of the two. He generates more shots, scores a higher proportion of his points through goals, and has been that way from the start of his career.
So, Were We Wrong About Nylander?
The numbers make it clear that Nylander is not a shoot-first player in the same mold as Matthews. His career split of 43/57 goals to assists proves he’s just as likely, if not more likely, to set up a linemate as he is to take the shot himself.
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That doesn’t mean his shot isn’t deadly—it is. When Nylander decides to rip it, he can beat goalies clean. But the bigger picture says he’s a dual threat. He creates offence in multiple ways, and that balance is what makes him so dangerous.
Thanks, Windshear, for Helping Us All Understand Nylander Better
It’s easy to watch Nylander and remember the goals, especially after a 45-goal season. However, the statistics tell a more comprehensive story. He’s not only a scorer—he’s a playmaker. If Matthews and Nylander do end up together this season, maybe it won’t be the redundancy we feared. Instead, it could be a balance of one of the league’s best pure shooters (Matthews) alongside one of its most underrated dual threats (Nylander).
Hockey debates are better when fans like Windshear push back and force us to examine the issues more closely. In this case, we learned something. Nylander isn’t just “shoot-first.” He’s more complex than that, and the Maple Leafs are better for it.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
