Breakout Candidates: Leo Carlsson, C and Cutter Gauthier, LW
Carlsson finished the season with 29 points in the last 31 games with increasing ice time and, in my opinion, has the highest ceiling. He has future 1C written all over him and enters the season on a contract year. Linemate Cutter Gauthier, also in a contract year, likewise had a strong finish, and possesses 30-goal, 200-shot potential for good value in deeper leagues. Gauthier possesses the potential for a bigger jump in fantasy value because he shoots far more often and should see increased minutes on the power play with Zegras now in Philadelphia.
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On the flip side, the Ducks will run an offense by committee and McTavish is currently higher than Carlsson on the depth chart. Should Quenneville leave Troy Terry’s line intact, there will be a fight for minutes on a nightly basis. Carlsson and Gauthier are great options in keeper leagues but in redraft leagues may provide only close to point-per-game value in the very best-case scenario.
Buy Low Candidate: Olen Zellweger, D
Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger are both promising potential top-four defensemen stuck behind LaCombe. Both should see more regular playing time this coming season, but the better fantasy bet is Zellweger, who will likely quarterback PP2. Neither are rumored to be on the trade block but a trade for Zellweger might benefit his fantasy value because the acquiring team will see him as a future PP1 QB. Zellweger provided five PPP last season while averaging 2:01 PP TOI/GP, trailing LaCombe’s 2:43.
Riser: Lukas Dostal, G
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The acquisition of Petr Mrazek or should not cast any doubt on Dostal’s status as the Ducks’ No. 1 option. With the long-gestating John Gibson trade finally consummated, I can see the Ducks totally overusing Dostal like Nashville does with Juuse Saros. He has excellent raw talent and an improving team should also lead to a slightly improved record. Dostal is an ideal high-volume saves goalie in fantasy, finishing sixth in shots against (1,625) and seventh in saves (1,467) last season, with the potential to go on some amazing hot streaks (.945 SP in October).
Faller: Alex Killorn, C/LW/RW
Not that Killorn has been really fantasy-relevant since taking a retirement cheque to move to Orange County, but I think his numbers will really dip. The additions of Kreider and Granlund means less ice time to go around, and Killorn’s low points ceiling and low shot volume keeps his fantasy value barely above streaming status.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.