It is time for the bettor’s favourite when it comes to point estimation. What do we say, take the over…Today, we present you the 2025-26 Ottawa Senator Shane Pinto‘s point projection. Pinto isn’t necessarily anticipated to post huge numbers offensively. That is part of what makes his projection so fun. So, let’s get into it.
Senators Centre Shane Pinto’s 2025-26 Point Projection
When it comes to picking someone who plays a depth role, and does so well, his season point projections, it can be difficult. You don’t really know how much offensive ice time you can expect. For example, he led Ottawa by a fair margin in 2024-25, with an 18.2% shift start in defensive zone. Second in that category lagged behind at 14.9%, it was Ridly Greig. The two have an excellent chance of being on the ice together a fair bit this season, too. They helped, along with Michael Amadio, to form the well-beloved GAP-line of 2024-25.
There is some question, given the opportunities for Claude Giroux and Fabian Zetterlund, as to whether or not Amadio would even have a spot on that line. Conversely, they did play so well together last season. It might be a foregone conclusion that they do end up on the ice together quite a bit.
The takeaway is, as good as the GAP line was for the Sens, they didn’t necessarily score at a high rate. You know, not enough to have a huge quantity of 5v5 points for the players. Therefore, if Pinto is shuffled around the lineup with more offensive players, like Giroux or whoever from the top six really, it could provide a boost to his offence.
Looking At the Comps
Another way to analyze Pinto’s potential scoring, is to check out a few comparable-type players from around the league. Anthony Cirelli and Blake Coleman are guys that get more defensive assignments than offensive ones, and not necessarily top power play minutes. In 5v5 situations in 2024-25, Cirelli had 36 points, Coleman had 26 points, and Pinto 23. All total, Pinto had 37 points in 70 games while Cirelli was at 59 in 80, and Coleman 39 in 82. In other words, Pinto was on pace with his peers from around the league. Given a similar ice time and zone distribution as last year, it could be difficult to tangibly increase his point output. We even think of a player like Sam Bennett, who had 51 points in 76 games. That is despite a much higher rate of offensive zone starts, Pinto was at 9.6%, whereas Bennett was 15.3%.
Expect a Boost of Confidence from Team USA Invite
Fundamentally, Pinto is a very complete player and that truly is his role on the Ottawa Senators. In the event of injuries, he could easily slot onto the top power play unit. It is similar to the reason he could make the Team USA Olympic roster. Furthermore, he’s the type of player that could find even greater success playing with better players. He’s one of the best at what he does. For the Sens, that is killing penalties. That is why a lot of elite players can be left off a team Canada roster, as an example. There’s only so many players with a spot reserved on the power play, so only so many scorers are required to fill out the roster.
Pinto’s role on the Ottawa Senators is dependent on the injuries in the lineup. For instance, the Joshua Norris injury caused Pinto to have an excellent rookie campaign, hitting the 20-goal mark.
The difficult thing for Pinto maximizing his offensive output, from a personal ceiling discussion perspective, is that he plays on the third line. There could be arguments for him not playing there, but he is a very complete player. Just his presence that low in the lineup is a flex. You’re welcome Ottawa Senator fans. Let’s go!
Narrowing In On Individual Stats
Pinto has some very favourable offensive stats, even though he is primarily used in a defensive role for the Ottawa Senators. In 210 career NHL games, he has 51 goals in an average time on ice of 16:39, and a career shooting percentage of 12.4. You can easily see him increasing his rate of scoring heading into the 2025-26 season at this stage of his career trajectory.
Over his career, if you went with an 82-game average for his stats, he would be at 160 shots. If he shoots a little more, and as a result, has more confidence, and raises that shooting percentage a bit, we can get an idea of how many goals we can expect. Conversely, as we have covered so many players throughout our point projections, you begin to realize there is only so many goals and assists to go around.
We do think he will play in more offensive situations overall, than he did playing 70 games last year, totaling 78 minutes on the power play. Therefore, we can expect a rise in his assist amount. From 16 a season ago, he should be able to get close to 25 this time around. Remember, his career points, when averaged out over 82 games, is still just 42. Even a fair-sized increase, isn’t a lot of total points.
Now for Shane Pinto’s Point Projection
Having a player of Pinto’s calibre play more on the penalty kill than the power play is truly a sign of depth for your team. That is a position of strength for the Ottawa Senators as they head into the 2025-26 campaign. We think he can challenge his career high of 21 goals, with as many as 22 to 27. Also, even though we are guessing an increase in assists, he will still primarily be seen as a shooter. Therefore, it will be likely he has nearly as many, if not more, goals than assists. Look for him to land somewhere between 44 and 54 points in 2025-26. As a note, the 54 would have been his pace, in his 2023-24, 41-game campaign.
So, there you have it, another Sens point projection. We can’t wait for the season to get started. So, stick around, we might have another point projection or two to cover. But also, there will be plenty of roster news and updates on prospects at training camps ramp up.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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