Discuss the future of Lukas Reichel: from exciting prospect to trade rumors, what’s next for this promising player?
Remember when Lukas Reichel was an exciting prospect? Remember when people whispered and murmured that Reichel could be a linemate for Connor Bedard? Well, now people are whispering and murmuring about trading Reichel in hopes of a “scenery change.” The truth is—and this is coming from an ex-Reichel defender—that ship has sailed.
Or has it? Trust me, it’s sailed.
Lukas Reichel stat card
Lukas Reichel, Is There Hope?
I’ve always believed in the adage, “never give up on young players.” I’ve defended Lukas Reichel’s growth in the past. But maybe it’s time to lay down my sword. Is it really worth dying on a hill defending a player who hasn’t cracked 10 goals despite two 65+ game seasons?
There once was rhetoric regarding European players needing time to adjust to North American ice. For Reichel, his dominance in the AHL showed that it wouldn’t be an issue. His 2022-23 season in Rockford (51 points in 55 games) certainly set expectations for his performance in the NHL. So, what is it?
Lukas Reichel’s 2024-25 All Three Zones stat card.
Lukas Reichel is one of the most proficient players in the NHL with offensive zone entries. When people talk about those “flashes of talent,” this is usually what they’re referring to. Looking at the above chart, Reichel scored high in his z-score for zone entries, meaning he performed better than the average forward. The problem was what he did once he got into the offensive zone.
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The heat map below from Hockey Viz shows Reichel’s inability to generate offense from the middle of the ice. The blue indicates where the least amount of shots originated from, and red indicates heavy shooting. The Blackhawks were a better team without Reichel—they had a 2.12 expected goals rate. With Reichel, that rate dropped to 1.90 xGF/60. His linemates do factor in this—he spent most of his time with Craig Smith and Pat Maroon. But even then, you want to see Reichel generate chances from the middle of the ice. That’s what’s concerning.
Some might look at his linemates and say, “If only he played with Connor Bedard.” They tried that, and it didn’t look good. The two played 88:58 minutes together and had a 35 Corsi and a 24.10% expected goals share. Bedard without Reichel had a 43 Corsi and a 42.75 xG%.
Reichel’s in a tough spot. His skillset isn’t really suited for a bottom-six role. Teams don’t build a fourth line. Teams can certainly build a third scoring line, but from the sounds of Jeff Blashill, they want that line to be a shutdown line. Is Reichel a shutdown player? Hardly, his toolset suits an offensive-minded forward, not a shutdown third-liner.
If Reichel wants to succeed in the NHL, he needs to prove that he’s a middle-six scorer. On the Blackhawks, he needs to prove he’s a second-line winger.
The Verdict
I feel that Reichel’s time is coming to an end in Chicago. If he does show signs of growth, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Davidson trades him. Reichel, after all, is a Stan Bowman pick. If Reichel is to stay in Chicago, he must be a second-line winger. I believe that’s his ceiling, and the Hawks certainly have a need there.
If he is a middle-six wing, meaning he’ll have to play the role of a third-line winger, it’s not on this team.
The hard truth that some fans, myself included, don’t want to hear is that Reichel needs a new start elsewhere. When he’s 23, in his third year in the NHL, and already looking at the outside in for training camp (on the fourth line), there’s a lot to read there.
Or, who knows? I could totally be wrong. And that’d be okay.
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