The Stanley Cup race just shifted. With Aleksander Barkov likely sidelined for the season, the Florida Panthers face a massive void down the middle. His absence reshapes the championship landscape, opening doors for contenders like the Vegas Golden Knights, who should arguably be the favorites to win it all now (based on the new odds, they’re in the top three).
We’ll break down what Barkov’s injury means not just for the Panthers and Golden Knights, but for the rest of the Stanley Cup hopefuls.
Losing Barkov Cuts Panthers’ Chances of a “Three-peat”
Barkov’s value to Florida is difficult to overstate. A three-time Selke Trophy winner as the league’s top two-way forward, he blends shutdown defense with top-line production. Over Barkov’s career, he’s averaged nearly a point per game while consistently ranking among the NHL’s leaders in takeaways and faceoff wins. Last season, he posted a 56.7% expected goals share (xGF%) at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick. His elite numbers highlight his ability to tilt the ice in Florida’s favor.
Related: Barkov Injury Could Attract Panthers to Big Trade with Penguins
Without him, the Panthers’ structure weakens at both ends. His on-ice scoring chance share was nearly 7% higher than when he was off, underscoring how he drives possession and limits opponent opportunities. Losing that presence effectively forces Florida to redistribute minutes to players less suited to handle top matchups, leaving their defensive spine exposed.
Brad Marchand with a very insightful answer when asked about the Panthers handling the absence of Aleksander Barkov:
“He’s the best two-way player in the game. You can’t replace that. But, collectively as a group, you just try to all pick up a little piece of that and try a… pic.twitter.com/MxlyxRPETN
— Katie Engleson (@KatieEngleson) September 27, 2025
The bookmakers’ implied probabilities reflect this downturn. The Panthers’ Cup chances now sit around 7.7%, down sharply from 11-12% before the injury. For a team fresh off a Final appearance, that’s a dramatic shift, and one that alters the postseason outlook for rivals, with a notable one being the last team to eliminate them in the playoffs.
Are the Golden Knights Now the Team to Beat?
The Golden Knights are uniquely positioned in this conversation. They’re not an Eastern team that directly benefits from Florida’s weakened conference path, but they are also one of the few title contenders to improve in the offseason. They acquired superstar forward Mitch Marner while still boasting a roster designed for playoff hockey: a relentless and structured forecheck with battle-tested depth across all four lines.
The Golden Knights’ offseason made them one of the most improved NHL teams. They already finished 2024–25 with one of the league’s stingiest defenses (just 214 goals against, third fewest) while their underlying numbers (xGF% and high-danger shares) sit in the upper tier, suggesting a defensive structure that reliably limits opponents’ chances. That formula won them the 2023 Stanley Cup and remains their biggest asset.
Noah Hanifin of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates with Nicolas Roy after scoring a goal during the second period of Game Two of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Dallas Stars (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Barkov’s absence pushes the Golden Knights forward, even just a little. Because they reside in the West, the direct gains are smaller. The East’s gauntlet suddenly looks less intimidating, meaning Vegas could ultimately face an even more confident opponent from that side in a Cup Final rematch scenario. The Golden Knights’ implied probability climbed to 10.5% from 9.5% before news of Barkov’s injury. This puts them as the likeliest Stanley Cup winner from the West.
The Eastern Contenders Benefit Most
But for now, the East holds the biggest winners. The Carolina Hurricanes’ implied Cup probability has climbed to as high as 12.5%, reflecting both their already-elite profile and a clearer path. The Canes led the NHL last season with a 57.3% Corsi for rate (Natural Stat Trick), controlling play at a level unmatched by any other contender. Without the Panthers’ shutdown center controlling the lanes (and speculation of acquiring Kirill Kaprizov), their puck-possession machine becomes even harder to stop.
The next team to benefit is the Panthers’ state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Now roughly at 11.1% to win it all, they look re-energized as well. With Andrei Vasilevskiy healthy and their core intact, the Lightning could thrive in postseason chaos. Barkov’s absence removes a formidable obstacle, potentially opening the door to yet another deep run.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, hovering around 4.8%, benefit differently. Their offensive firepower, led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander, faces one less elite defensive pivot to smother them. Also, the Edmonton Oilers have surprisingly not seen much in terms of their odds’ movement. One would think that the Stanley Cup runner-ups in the last two seasons would gain the most. Alas, the Oilers lost plenty of key contributors during the offseason, and are theoretically worse.
It’s no surprise that the three Eastern contenders have seen their odds shift, as they were also the teams the Panthers beat to return to the Stanley Cup Final this past season.
All told, the race for the Cup has become more unpredictable. Vegas must keep pace with Western challengers while watching the East recalibrate in real time. If Barkov is lost for the year, the balance of power shifts just enough to inject new drama into the 2026 playoff picture, one where the Golden Knights remain central players, but hardly alone.
