No sooner had Connor McDavid signed the biggest bargain contract in the National Hockey League of this century than Toronto sports commentators started to speculate about McDavid leaving Edmonton.

At The Athletic, reporter Chris Johnston said one important part of the deal was the two-year term. “While McDavid ensured there will be an appropriate amount of urgency in Edmonton for the coming seasons, he left himself an escape hatch if anything goes sideways. You’d have to think the Oilers will need clarity on his long-term plans come summer 2027 and might be forced to consider a trade at that point if he’s not of a mind to sign an extension. Let’s view this as two more guaranteed cracks at the Stanley Cup for him in Edmonton, with the potential for a third swing in 2027-28 listed as ‘TBD.’”

On the Real Kyper & Bourne radio show, former NHLer Nick Kypreos’ main two points were that McDavid did not get a raise and that he can leave soon enough.

“He wins scoring titles…. Carries a team on his back in playoffs three consecutive seasons, and the man can’t get a raise,” Kypreos said.

Commentator Sam McKee told Kypreos he was saddened that McDavid decided to sign for two more years in Edmonton. “I got to speak up for my Toronto people here. Like I’m depressed, depressed because I was really starting to believe… I really did think there that we were at this point that he wasn’t going to sign in all season. We were going to get to do this. I’m a little bit upset about it, to be honest.”

But Kypreos countered that the term of McDavid’s new contract is just two years.

“Buddy, it’s only 24 months. 24 months… He didn’t sign for four or five years or the max at eight. He signed two and all two did is put the world on alert. We are on the clock. ‘There better be a Stanley Cup within two years, or I am out of here.’”

Kypreos continued: “Certainly this deal should not make Edmonton Oilers fans feel any better than… I know it’s kicking the can down the road. It’s just kicking it down the road. So okay, that’s fine. It’s better than him walking after this year to give him two more years. But there’s still a pretty clear message here that me staying here the rest of my career is not a foregone conclusion…. He turned down the biggest contract in NHL history.”

ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, an US-based commentator, also wondered about the term of the new deal, talking with Jeff Marek on The Sheet podcast.

“The basis of this negotiation is Connor McDavid doing a full forensic study of the Edmonton Oilers championship window. And Bowman went to his house, and Jeff Jackson went to his house. There’s been a full on sell job by the Edmonton Oilers to convince McDavid to not only stay, but stay for a while. Ultimately, he settled on, ‘I’ll give you two years.’ Like, I feel bad for Draisaitl, he’s there for eight. Connor just said, but I think the window is two.”

My take

1. McDavid just signed the biggest hometown discount of the century and this is the reaction? Fascinating.

2. McDavid is now signed up with the Oilers for the next three years. One obvious reason that McDavid himself has made clear for signing short term is to give the Oilers more cap space.

“I said I was committed to winning here, and I meant it…,” McDavid told reporters today. “It’s about winning. That’s always what I’ve preached. This deal gives both sides what they’re looking for.”

Essentially, McDavid is sacrificing his own pay so there’s more money to bring in other players and retain current players. This makes a huge amount of sense in the short term because the Oilers face a major cap crunch in the this season, with Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard’s new contracts kicking in.

If McDavid had signed for a raise at even as much as $15 or $16 million per year the Oilers would have been dedicating more of their salary cap to its four highest paid players than any team that’s ever won a Cup during the salary cap era, 2006-2025.

The difficult equation was simple: a raise for McDavid would diminish the team’s Stanley Cup hopes.

But with McDavid signing for two more years at his current $12.5 million per year, all that changes. Edmonton’s chances of bringing in the right players to win the Cup in the next three years just shot up dramatically.

3. McDavid will now earn a similar cap percentage as did Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews when they won their final two Cups in Chicago, about the same percentage as Sidney Crosby took home when he won his final two Cups in Pittsburgh.

McDavid will earn 12.0 per cent of the cap in 2026-27 and 11.0 per cent of the cap in 2027-28. Kane earned 10.6 per cent of the cap in the first year of his Cup-friendly deal, Crosby earned 13.53 per cent, and Toews earned 10.61 per cent. Both Kane and Toews were coming out of their Entry Level Contracts when they signed, while Crosby signed a 13-year deal and was coming off a major injury.

4. Who knows what McDavid will be thinking in two years when his contract negotiations heat up again? Not even McDavid himself knows.

There is indeed a chance that McDavid will move on from Edmonton down the road. But if that happens, it won’t be the Oilers deciding to trade McDavid, who has a No Movement Clause. It will be McDavid deciding to leave. He will call the shots, not anyone else.

As for the Oilers now being “on the clock,” as Kypreos suggests, well, the Oilers have been on the clock with McDavid since he came here. Star players have the power to demand and get trades in this era of the NHL.

There’s always been an urgency around Edmonton winning. That urgency grows as McDavid has come close to winning a Cup but hasn’t got there yet.

But with Alexsander Barkov’s injury, Edmonton is as well-placed to win the Cup in the next three years as any NHL team. If Stan Bowman does his job and keeps bringing in talent, as he’s now done repeatedly in his first year with the Oilers, Edmonton may be well placed to keep on winning Cups as McDavid and Draisaitl continue their careers.

The future for the Oilers and McDavid will take care of itself. For the present, the Oil are again ready to roll.

At the Cult of Hockey

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