DBTB –
We are well and truly into the Draft Year now, my friends. The CHL is underway, even the NCAA – a notorious late starter – has begun their slate of games. Some leagues are more than a dozen games deep in places like Sweden and Russia, while new faces are starting to emerge, while some expected customers are rising or falling based on their early performance. And we’re starting to see the first glimmers of the impact of the new CHL – NCAA agreement, which is having all sorts of ripple effects. So let’s get into it, and we’ll start with the presumptive #1 overall pick.
Gavin McKenna made his debut in the fairly dull Penn State colors. And what a whopper it was. In their first weekend combo, McKenna chalked up two apples against the Sun Devils of Arizona State (yes, for those wondering, they have a hockey program – and it’s pretty good!) then nets the game winner in the second game of the weekend for the sweep! Not a bad kick-off to the season for the kid, and for the Nittany Lions. He’ll make his home debut later this week. But he, for one, lived up to the hype. At least out of the gate.
And one point I wanted to make before we continue… I think this is a very good Draft. It’s deep, there’s more talent than you think, and it has the glamor of a future superstar as the top pick. There are a lot of draft nerds out there that seem to think this is a weak draft for any number of reasons. At this point, I disagree. Let’s take a closer look.
The Finns had a terrible draft class last season. And things weren’t supposed to look much better this year. But it turns out, they have a glut of huge, skilled forwards. Guys like Ollie Suvanto, Vilho Vanhatalo, and Onni Kalto have come out flashing. And that doesn’t count Oskar Hemming, who’s in the middle of a contract dispute with his club team but wants to come over to the CHL. And they’ve got themselves a pair of potential defensive studs in Juho Piipirainen and Samu Alulauri on the back-end. They could wind up with 7-8 players taken in the Top 3 rounds, which would be a huge bounce back year for them.
Likewise, the Russians did not have anything to write home about last year. But this year, we’ve seen some young forwards force me to sit up and take notice. In the Q, a couple of young Russians – Alexei Vlasov and Yegor Shilov – look dynamic and at times impossible to stop. And back home in the Motherland, centermen like Viktor Fyodorev has already been called up to the KHL, while out of nowhere, Lavr Gashilov (more on him below) has dominated the Russian junior circuit. And while a couple of big-time defenders, Nikita Shcherbakov and Slava Feyodosev, have sparkled.
The Swedes are loaded with explosive forwards and could easily have a half-dozen players selected in the first round. Scoring forwards like Elton Hermansson, Markus Nordmark, Ivar Stenberg and Viggo Bjorck (no relation to the former Sugarcubes lead singer) all have the talent to be lottery picks. And as far as big, bruising D-Men with some two-way ability, Malte Gustafsson and Will Hakansson fit the bill. Add in dynamic PP QB Axel Elofsson, and you’ve got a really deep class with some sleepers lurking, eager to join the group.
Canada has the cream of the crop in terms of talent this time around. McKenna is Canadian, as well as potential Top 5 picks Tynan Lawrence and Keaton Verhoeff (who, like McKenna, is playing in the NCAA this year). Ryan Lin could join them, an undersized wizard on the blueline, while kids like Ryan Roobroeck, Daxon Rudolph, and Ethan Belchetz all have the potential to come off the Board in the Top 10. In terms of Canadian-born talent, the OHL seems to be the tops this year, although the WHL has some studs and although the QMJHL mostly showcases foreign-born talent this year, they’ve got some “good Canadian boys” as Don Cherry used to say, as well.
The most interesting might be the USA. Normally, the National Team is bursting at the seams with the best players from the age group, but not this time around. We saw it at the Hlinka when the US won Gold without the National Team (who do not typically participate in that tournament) and now we’re seeing it all over the place. Guys are playing in the OHL, USHL, NCAA and WHL and are all showing out in big ways. The National Team does have some talent – smooth Luke Schairer on the back end and diminutive Mikey Berchild scoring up front, but you also have Blake Zielinski and Jack Hextall – two of the heroes of the Hlinka – shining in the USHL, and JP Hurlbert (no relation to Sabre legend Mike Hurlbut) lighting it up in the WHL.
As for the Sabres, some of their young ones are looking splendid so far. Victoriaville defender Simon Pier-Brunet has 7P in 7 games along with a fight; 6th rounder Melvin Novotny is a PPG player (with 4G in 6 games) in the USHL; Brodie Ziemer is putting up 1.5 PPG after a couple of early games at Minnesota; Prokhor Poltapov looks sharp and effective with 6P in 12 games in the KHL. Speaking of Russians, goalie Yevgeni Prokhorov looks fantastic right now with a 1.55 GAA and .943 SV% in the MHL. So some definite bright spots in the pipeline, which could influence how they draft in the future.
One note: I know the Sabres gave up their 2nd round pick in the Cozens trade, but for the purposes of putting more names in front of my fellow DBTB’ers to consider, I’ll pretend the Sabres still have that pick for a couple more Mock Drafts.
As always, the drafting order was taken from the Vegas odds at the Wynn Sportsbook. I then ran them through a lottery at Tankathon, and stuck the Sabres at #16 because…well, it’s my Mock Draft. So let’s get this thing started!
ROUND ONE:
1#1: CHICAGO: Gavin McKenna, 6’0 C/LW, NCAA
1#2: NY ISLANDERS: Tynan Lawrence, 6’0 C, USHL
1#3: PITTSBURGH: Keaton Verhoeff, 6’5 RHD, NCAA
1#4: SAN JOSE: Ryan Lin, 5’11 RHD, WHL
1#5: SEATTLE: Ivar Stenberg, 6’0 W, SWE
1#6: BOSTON: Ryan Roobroeck, 6’4 C, OHL
1#7: NASHVILLE: Marcus Nordmark, 6’1 RW, SWE
1#8: DETROIT: Simon Katolicky, 6’4 W, FIN
1#9: ANAHEIM: Viktor Fyodorov, 6’0 C, RUS
1#10: PHILADELPHIA: Chase Reid, 6’2 RHD, OHL
1#11: CALGARY: Ethan Belchetz, 6’5 LW, OHL
1#12: VANCOUVER: Elton Hermansson, 6’1 W, SWE
1#13: COLUMBUS: Adam Novotny, 6’1 W, OHL
1#14: UTAH: Carson Carels, 6’1 LHD, WHL
1#15: MONTREAL: Viggo Bjorck, 5’10 C/W, SWE
1#16: BUFFALO: Lavr Gashilov, 6’2 C, RUS
1#17: ST LOUIS: Malte Gustafsson, 6’4 LHD, SWE
1#18: OTTAWA: FORFEITED
1#19: WASHINGTON: Olivers Murnieks, 6’1 C, QMJHL
1#20: NY RANGERS: Adam Valentini, 5’11 W, NCAA
1#21: MINNESOTA: Maddox Dagenais, 6’4 C, QMJHL
1#22: LA KINGS: JP Hurlbert, 5’11 W, WHL
1#23: BOSTON (TORONTO): Luke Schairer, 6’2 RHD, US NTDP
1#24: WINNIPEG: Daxon Rudolph, 6’1 RHD, WHL
1#25: NEW JERSEY: Juho Piiparainen, 6’3 RHD, FIN
1#26: SEATTLE (TAMPA BAY): Will Hakansson, 6’4 LHD, SWE
1#27: CALGARY (VEGAS): Axel Elofsson, 5’11 RHD, SWE
1#28: NY ISLANDERS (COLORADO): Oliver Suvanto, 6’3 C/W, FIN
1#29: CAROLINA: Mathis Preston, 5’11 LW, WHL
1#30: SAN JOSE (EDMONTON): Yegor Shilov, 6’1 C, QMJHL
1#31: NY RANGERS (DALLAS): Alberts Smits, 6’3 LHD, FIN
1#32: CHICAGO (FLORIDA): Oscar Hemming, 6’4 LW, FIN
ROUND TWO:
2#1: CHICAGO: Joe Iginla, 5’10 W, WHL
2#2: PITTSBURGH: Blake Zielinski, 6’1 C, USHL
2#3: SAN JOSE: Caleb Malhotra, 6’0 C, OHL
2#4: SEATTLE: Niklas Aaram-Olsen, 6’0 W, SWE
2#5: BOSTON: Jack Hextall, 6’0 C, USHL
2#6: NASHVILLE: Landon Nycz, 6’2 LHD, NCAA
2#7: DETROIT: Xavier Villaneueve, 5’11 LHD, QMJHL
2#8: ANAHEIM: Lars Steiner, 5’10 RW, QMJHL
2#9: PHILADELPHIA: Oscar Holmertz, 6’0 C, SWE
2#10: CALGARY: Colin Fitzgerald, 6’2 C, OHL
2#11: CHICAGO (NY ISLANDERS): Samu Alalauri, 6’2 RHD, FIN
2#12: VANCOUVER: Adam Nemec, 6’1 W, SVK
2#13: MONTREAL (COLUMBUS): Brooks Rogowski, 6’6 C/W, OHL
2#14: UTAH: Tobias Tomik, 6’1 C/W, WHL
2#15: MONTREAL: Tomas Chrenko, 5’11 C, SVK
2#16: BUFFALO: Will Yared, 6’2 C/RW, QMJHL
2#17: PITTSBURGH (ST LOUIS): Nikita Ovcharov, 6’2 RW, RUS
2#18: UTAH (OTTAWA): Casey Mutryn, 6’2 C, US NTDP
2#19: FLORIDA (WASHINGTON): Nikita Klepov, 5’11 W, OHL
2#20: NASHVILLE (NY RANGERS): Sean Burick, 6’5 RHD, BCHL
2#21: NASHVILLE (MINNESOTA): Beckham Edwards, 6’1 C, OHL
2#22: LA KINGS: Harrison Boettinger, 6’2 G, WHL
2#23: CHICAGO (TORONTO): Brady Knowling, 6’5 G, US NTDP
2#24: PITTSBURGH (WINNIPEG): Ola Palme, 6’1 LHD, SWE
2#25: NEW JERSEY: Rasmus Rinne, 5’11 W, FIN
2#26: TAMPA BAY: Dylan Rozzi, 5’11 LW, QMJHL
2#27: VEGAS: Giorgos Pantelas, 6’2 RHD, WHL
2#28: SAN JOSE (COLORADO): Callum Croskery, 6’0 LHD, USHL
2#29: NY RANGERS (CAROLINA): Filip Novak, 6’1 RW, CZE
2#30: EDMONTON: Zach Nyman, 5’10 LHD, OHL
2#31: DALLAS: Braidy Wassilyn, 5’11 C, NCAA
2#32: FLORIDA: Vlad Dravecky, 6’1 RHD, OHL
The Haul
1#16: Lavr Gashilov, 6’2 C, RUS:
For those of us not fluent in Russian, it’s pronounced Lah-verr Gah-shee-lahv. Or you could pronounce it ‘dynamite’. Adding a dynamic center to the pipeline, especially as Ostlund continues to improve and quite possibly take a run at a starting gig in BFLO as soon as next season, should be high on the Sabres’ priority list. And this kid checks all the boxes. First off, he has tremendous hands. Easily handles passes in front of him, behind him, or bouncing pucks. Isn’t an overly flashy stickhandler but doesn’t have to be. Passes are on the tape. Puck is off the stick quickly, and to the right spot more often than not. Can make a defender look bad if the situation calls for it but doesn’t overhandle the puck. Smooth, shifty handler. Understands how to use his body to protect the puck, uses that same intelligence to win a lot of puck battles along the walls without taking a lot of hits.
Head is always up, which speaks to his awareness but also his handle. Superb vision with the puck on his stick. A menace on the PP, where he has the same sort of confidence with the puck that Dahlin has…doesn’t matter how tight the defense gets, he’s always able to escape and make the right play. Always looks to get the puck into the middle of the ice, either skating it or passing it. Can sauce his passes through sticks and legs, or make a sudden, hard pass to the far post for a tip-in. Highly creative. Always trying to make a play, which can be good and bad.
He’s not a player that simply dumps the puck in. Every time he possesses it, it’s a chance to make a dynamic play for himself or a teammate. This can lead to some ugly turnovers, as well as sublime offensive plays. Tends to hang on to the puck for a long time waiting for lanes to open up. His shot is deceptive and thanks to his hair-trigger release, easily disguised. Has a variety of shots, can change his shooting angle in stride, and is equally dangerous coming down in transition or around the net in a scrum. Gets the puck up in tight spaces. Can go bar down from the top of the crease without a moment’s hesitation. Equally proficient on the fore- and backhand.
The offensive end is where he makes his money, but even there, he could crank up his pace a bit. More so on defense. Positionally, he’s often in the right spot and will cover for a pinching D-man when needed or drop back past the Red Line to shut down a rush. Smart defender. But he can stop moving his feet at times, more so on defense, coast and gets caught flat-footed too much for my liking. But this is a problem a lot of kids who stay in Russian juniors have, especially the high-end offensive talents like Michkov. Can tend to take it easy a bit too often. Coaching will help him there. So if they can get Gashilov to play a bit quicker on both ends, he’ll be very tough to handle.
With good size already (6’2 170#) he’s on the slighter side and is one of the oldest kids in the Class. But BFLO can be patient with him with the likes of Ostlund and Helenius in the queue ahead of him. Came out roaring in the MHL – Russian juniors – with 13P in his first 6 games, after last year nearly going for a PPG (43P in 45 games). As far as long-term upside goes, I see some Jason Spezza in his game.
2#16: Will Yared, 6’2 C/RW, QMJHL:
This kid, a big-bodied (6’2 200#) but skilled two-way forward who can play center and wing, is a raw talent that could be molded into a contributor in all phases of the game. Yared owns a deep bag of offensive skills, including speed with the puck, ability to shoot or pass on the move, vision and impressive instincts that lead to him making defenders look bad. Gifted with a strong handle and wide shoulders, Yared can skate through a crowd while maintaining control of the puck or hang onto it while getting worked over along the walls. Eyes are always up and scanning the ice for openings or teammates in better position to make a play. Yet he manages to consistently get the puck to the right player at the right time. Recognizes opportunities before they appear, while understanding what to do to take advantage of them.
Skating is a strong plus. Yared has good get-up. A smooth stride that helps him motor effortlessly around the ice also allows him to beat defenders wide, exploding up-ice and forcing defenses to break down. Shot is accurate but could use more velocity particularly on his wrister. And his release needs to improve; whether he’s picking a corner or just being patient, he needs to get his shot off faster. It can be easily blocked. Plays with good pace and a lot of physical intensity. Unafraid to lower the shoulder or go hard into the corners, plays confidently through contact without losing control of the puck. Defensively, he can be disruptive in the NZ and is a very good forechecker.
When playing center Yared intercepts a lot of entry passes and pucks to the middle of the ice. But gets caught puck watching and often can appear almost too patient, even tentative, trying to wait out his check, forcing them to act, then attempting to defend them. This also occurs on the offensive end, so I do have concerns about the speed of his processing, but it could be just a case of overconfidence. Either way, Yared could be a very useful player who could fill a lot of roles – checking center, middle-6 forward, power wing. Reminds me a little bit of Dylan Cozens.
Lot of physical tools, confident offensive player, but might not have the top-end hockey smarts that could make him a high-scoring forward at higher levels. Currently plays on a stacked Saint John’s club, where he’s managed 5P in 6 games while getting 2nd and sometimes 3rd line minutes. Could become an Ivan Barbashev-type of player if all goes right.
3#16: Jacob Xu, 6’2 LHD, OHL:
A savvy, intelligent puck moving D-Man, Xu has good size, stellar four-way mobility and a habit of making the smart plays to keep the puck out of trouble and out of his net. Xu is a smooth, smart shut-down defender. There are some legitimate questions as to how much offense he brings to the table, or even how much future upside is there, but defense-first blueliners in the mid-round area have been increasing in popularity in the last five years or so…just look at BFLO, who’ve drafted Adam Kleber, David Bedkowski, Noah Laberge, Gavin McCarthy and Simon Pier-Brunet in just the last few years. Xu is another player in that mold.
Plays a very simple game: retrieve puck, find an exit, move puck out of his end on time and on the tape, and then follow the play. Maintains inside leverage, gets between his check and the net. Is not a big hitter but doesn’t shy away from physical play and likes to initiate contact with puck carriers to disrupt or force them to lose the puck. Selective when he has to lower the boom, rarely takes him out of position. Has surprising strength for a long, lanky frame. He’ll need to get more core strength to better control similarly-sized (or bigger!) forwards who are engaged with him around the net, but in puck battles he can throw his weight around very effectively.
Defensive instincts are excellent. Seems to know where the puck is going in his end before it gets there and adjusts to it before the opposition. A real nose for the puck. Excellent skater, Xu has that four-way mobility that is a must for shut-down defenders nowadays. Turns are tight, transitions are smooth and he changes directions in a flash. He doesn’t have great hands and he’s not going to deke you or stickhandle his way out of a crowd. Instead, he’s just going to flip the puck off the wall and out of his end. Not much of a creator, once he crosses the Red Line he typically hands the puck off to a forward or sends it deep into the O-zone. That said, given the quality of the Kitchener team he plays for, he doesn’t get a lot of opportunities to play on special teams or get many O-zone starts.
One word I see a lot when used to describe his game is “mature” and I think that fits. As indicated, Xu isn’t going to put up big numbers – he currently has 1A in 5 games for the Rangers – but he is on pace to be a +41 on the back-end. One of the new breed of CHL players who are heading to the NCAA, Xu is committed to Harvard, which has turned out some pretty good D-Man of late (Adam Fox, for one). Given the Sabres familiarity with the Crimson (late round defender Sean Keohane plays there), this should be a selection that can make with confidence. Game reminds me of a bigger Jalen Chatfield.