The Toronto Maple Leafs (3-3-1) make the short trip across the border as they visit the Buffalo Sabres (3-4-0) in an Atlantic Division clash Friday. The contest at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, will start at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Sabres odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
2024-25 season series: Toronto won 3-0
The Maple Leafs, who are playing on road ice for just the second time this season, last played Tuesday when they were tabbed as a -118 favorite, but lost 5-2 (Over 6) to the New Jersey Devils.
The Sabres won their last game, defeating the Detroit Red Wings 4-2 (push 6) as -121 favorites Wednesday at home. After starting the season with 3 straight losses, Buffalo has gone 3-1-0 in its last 4.
Maple Leafs at Sabres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:41 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Sabres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) | Sabres +1.5 (-235)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)Maple Leafs at Sabres projected goalies
Anthony Stolarz (2-3-1, 3.01 GAA, .894 SV%) vs. Alex Lyon (2-4-0, 2.55 GAA, .924 SV%)
The 31-year-old Stolarz faced 34 shots and yielded 4 goals in Tuesday’s loss to the Devils. The 6-foot-6 goalie has allowed 4 goals in each of his last 2 starts. The 2012 second-round draft pick has been a late bloomer, clocking a .925 SV% in 2023-24 and a .926 SV% last season.
Lyon last played Monday, posting a 27-of-30 performance against the Montreal Canadiens. The 32-year-old has been a fast starter (.920 SV% in October) and a fine option at home across his career (.912 SV%). Lyon has faced the Leafs 4 times, notching a .927 SV% and a 1-1-1 mark.
Maple Leafs at Sabres picks and predictionsPrediction
Sabres 4, Maple Leafs 3
Buffalo has been excellent on the power play (25%), but has struggled in 5-on-5 action. Overall, its offense has been hampered by a below-average 9.1% shooting percentage. Figure on some regression helping the Sabres offense, and its an offense that has been producing an above-average rate of scoring chances and a healthy number of looks from the slot.
Toronto has been scoring in 5-on-5, but has faltered when on the power play (12.5%). But expected-goal analysis is bearish on the former due to some unlikely-to-continue conversion rates on high-danger shots.
The Sabres have some good mojo going of late, and they have shown some impressive quick-answer production when needed.
BACK BUFFALO (+100).
No interest; PASS.
The Over cashed in 2 of last season’s 3 meetings and is 6-3-1 across the last 10 meetings.
Both sides have showed some good late push in games, and the overall four-quadrants (offense and defense both sides) 5-on-5 numbers are bearish on more output
TAKE THE OVER 6 (-120).
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