The Winnipeg Jets will play their third contest in four days when the action gets underway at 5 pm Central, giving the hockey fans of Manitoba their first chance to see the Utah Mammoth this season. Both hockey teams have started off the 2025-26 NHL campaign in a positive way, as our Jets have racked up a 6-2-0 record while the Mammoth have surprised a lot of people with a 7-2-0 start.

When you compare the 2 NHL clubs goals for & against this year (actual numbers below in Match Up Stats section), you will see that both squads have been scoring over 3.5 goals per game and allowing slightly under 2.5. When you glance at MoneyPuck’s Goals % for all situations, you will see Utah has a 60.71% rating to sit in 2nd in the NHL, while Winnipeg is sitting at 59.57% in 4th place. That explains why the teams have winning records and suggests that both are playing good hockey at this point.

Yet, the shot & advanced stats indicate that one club is performing at a much higher level than the other. When you look at the the shot attempts (Corsi) and shots on net (Fenwick) numbers, the differences between Winnipeg & Utah are startling.

JETS: Corsi – 44.2% (30th) & Fenwick – 45.13% (29th)

MAMMOTH: Corsi – 50.81% (15th) & Fenwick – 53.91% (4th)

The data even gets worse when you delve into the Expected Goals (xG) stats…

JETS: xG% (all) – 46.91% (24th) & xG% (5on5) – 42.5% (32nd)

MAMMOTH: xG% (all) – 54.04% (3rd) & xG% (5on5) – 53.24% (10th)

I don’t want to sound like Chicken Little, but the sky might truly be falling on the Winnipeg Jets being anywhere near as good as they were last season. Our team have relied on the True Northers’ goaltenders playing lights out (92.28% saves for 2nd in NHL) to get the record they have currently, with Connor Hellebuyck holding the 3rd highest Goals Saved Above Expected rating (+7.7). And they have been assisted by a very easy start to the 25-26 campaign, as illustrated in the monthly strength of schedule graphic below.

With no pre-game skates today, we probably won’t know what the starting lineup will look like tonight. I thought Nikita Chibrikov looked fine against the Flames, so I hope they continue to give him some rope to earn a permanent spot. For whatever reason, the projected line ups from PuckPedia weren’t updated after the Calgary contest, so the one below probably won’t be what we actually see. The move of Haydn Fleury up to the 2nd defensive pairing with Neal Pionk resulted in better numbers last game, but that also resulted in the bottom duo getting heavily out-played. Does that mean Luke Schenn returns to the ice after one game off and Colin Miller is back in the press box? Who knows.

While we wait for an answer to that, time to check out how ESPN displays the stats for the two clubs and then glance at PuckPedia’s likely incorrect line ups….

MATCH UP STATS

*****

WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP

*****

UTAH MAMMOTH LINE UP

*****

The connections to our Winnipeg Jets on this year’s version of the Utah Mammoth are numerous, with former players such as Brandon Tanev, Kevin Stenlund, & Nate Schmidt all suiting up for this evening’s opposition. Then you could also add Jack McBain, the son of the Jets 8th overall draft pick in 1983 (Andrew McBain), to the list. And that is glossing over the reality that Utah’s franchise is the same one that started up in the Peg in the 1970’s.

I’ll admit that I am highly unconfident about the Jets’ prospects for Sunday’s match. Happened to catch parts of a couple of Utah’s games and I think their team speed will cause Winnipeg’s defensive core nightmares. Hope I am wrong…wouldn’t be the first or last time.

Go Winnipeg!!!!!

*****

POST-GAME INFO

**the information below will be added later Sunday night, so check back tomorrow to look over the numbers.**

Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)

FINAL SCORE:

*****

Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)

Expected Goals (all):  

Expected Goals (5on5): 

*****

Check back tomorrow for BOJA’s post-game thoughts. Enjoy the remainder of your weekend.