The Edmonton Oilers went 5-5-1 in October 2024 and 5-4-3 this October. The team avoided disaster, but could have accomplished so much more.

If you believe in regression, expected goals five-on-five and the value of elite talent, the biggest problem on the roster is obvious, and it’s time for management to address the issue.

The Oilers ran in place year over year in several important areas in the month of October. The overall GF-60 (including all game states) stayed the same (3.13 to 3.12 year over year). The GA-60 increased from 2.84 in October 2024 to 3.12 this season, and that increase continues a years-long trend.

October’s numbers

This edition of the Oilers is enjoying strong play from special teams, and has sawed off competition in expected goals at five-on-five. Single events can have enormous importance, and once again, that single fact but Edmonton over and over again. Pucks wouldn’t go in the opposition net, while goals against ran at a higher rate than the rest of the NHL.

CategoryTotalDivision Rank

Record

5W 4L 3T

5 of 8

Overall Goal Pct

50

3 of 8

Five-on-five Goal Pct

46.9

6 of 8

Five-on-five X-Goal Pct

50

3 of 8

PP Goals-60

11.64

1 of 8

PK GA-60

6.13

1 of 8

Five-on-Five Save Pct

0.891

7 of 8

Overall Save Pct

0.872

7 of 8

All numbers via Natural Stat Trick

There has to be some degree of frustration for the organization, as goaltending once again is an issue. Turnovers have also played a part, but at five-on-five, Edmonton’s high-danger chances against (9.66 per-60) rank best in the division and No. 6 across the NHL.

The five-on-five goal share will improve; Edmonton captain Connor McDavid has been playing in some bad luck so far this season.

It’s the goaltending

The net has been an issue for years, and at this point, general manager Stan Bowman can no longer avoid the issue. Here are the five-on-five and overall save percentages for Edmonton (with rank) since 2020-21:

YearFive-on-Five (rank)Overall (rank)

2020-21

.916 (19)

.910 (6)

2021-22

.916 (19)

.905 (13)

2022-23

.911 (18)

.901 (15)

2023-24

.914 (13)

.898 (17)

2024-25

.903 (23)

.894 (16)

2025-26

.891 (24)

.894 (16)

All numbers via Natural Stat Trick

The problem is that you develop a past. Previous management identified (and then paid) goaltenders who could never fill the No. 1 role, from Mikko Koskinen to Jack Campbell. When Stuart Skinner arrived (he took over the No. 1 job early in the 2022-23 season), the hope was that he could deliver in the role and provide the organization with enormous value compared to the cap (Edmonton spends very little on goaltending relative to other strong Cup contenders).

Skinner has not been able to improve on his rookie numbers, and the sample has grown to three full seasons and then some. The organization needs to make the call. Bowman may have started the process already. Acquiring Connor Ingram in the early days of the regular season may be the solution. If not, a deadline pickup of an established starter is the smart play.

The defence in October

In early October, Harman Dayal and James Mirtle at The Athletic ranked NHL defences by team. The Oilers landed in the second tier (“above average”) based on the pickup of Jake Walman, the puck moving of Evan Bouchard and the veteran presence with calm feet (Mattias Ekholm), who eased the pain from the moment he arrived in Edmonton.

The early days of the season have been decidedly uneven. Bouchard is a prime example of what has been going on this year. Over the past five seasons, his expected goal share has been well over 50 percent at five-on-five each year, and that continues (54 percent) in 2025-26, via Natural Stat Trick.

However, his actual goal share five-on-five is in the ditch after October. This is an impact player who just received a gigantic contract from the team, so it’s reasonable to suggest he is feeling the pressure of expectations. He should be able to play his way out of the turnover nightmare that currently envelops his game.

The entire defence looks more tentative, less self-assured than a year ago. No one would mistake Paul Coffey for a tactical dynamo, but the Oilers’ defence played with a certain swagger when Coffey was in the club’s employ. The coaching staff needs to get the group into a good place, something that did not happen in October.

The best way to sum up the defence is by running the goal share versus expected goal share, by pairing, for the main tandems (five-on-five):

Ekholm-Bouchard: 17 percent goal share, 56 percent expected
Nurse-Walman: 63 percent goal share, 51 percent expected
Kulak-Emberson: 60 percent goal share, 54 percent expected

All three pairings are doing the job based on expected results, with the top pairing struggling in actual goal share. That should rebound, but part of the problem is an .846 save percentage combined with a two percent shot percentage for Edmonton while the two men are on the ice. Those numbers aren’t sustainable, but regression did not come for Ekholm-Bouchard in October.

The forwards

The biggest challenge for coach Kris Knoblauch came in finding wingers for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. During the month of October, when Knoblauch ran the two elite centres together on a line, the results (60 percent goal share, 66 percent expected at five-on-five) were predictably brilliant.

Away from Draisaitl, the captain is 4-7 goals (36 percent) despite 55 percent expected. On the other hand, Draisaitl solo is 80 percent goals with a 49 percent expected goal share. I wrote about October forwards earlier this week.

Knoblauch should not panic over the defence or the forward group, as regression should occur. The goaltending? The numbers suggest Bowman will have seen enough, now or by the deadline.

The rookies

The Oilers routinely slow-play NHL rookies and players who do not qualify as rookies but have little or no NHL experience. Here’s the tale of the tape at five-on-five through October:

PlayerMinsPts-60Goal Pct

133

0

27

104

1.73

42

99

0.61

33

67

2.68

38

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Knoblauch has not featured any of Matt Savoie, Isaac Howard, David Tomasek or Noah Philp at five-on-five, and in fairness, the only number that jumps off the page is Philp’s scoring.

However, if the Oilers plan to use any of these players in a feature role come playoff time, it’s vital to bring each along with consistent playing time. Philp began the season as one of the few forwards who could score at five-on-five, and promptly found himself out of the lineup.

The coaching staff needs to view playing these young forwards as an investment, especially considering some of the shy offence being delivered by veterans like Trent Frederic.

Looking forward to November

The Oilers need to upgrade goaltending, and Ingram probably gets a shot at NHL games this season. November seems early, but the NHL results from Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard are leaving the door open.

On defence, Alec Regula is going to force his way into the lineup when healthy. Where he lands on the depth chart is a mystery at this time.

Up front, Knoblauch’s line shuffles have drawn the ire of fans, but veterans Frederic and now Mangiapane have not scored at pace while playing on the McDavid line. Zach Hyman’s return looms large.

The Oilers enjoyed good special teams this month, partly due to using McDavid and Draisaitl as regulars in both rotations. That has its own issue, as the time on ice totals are through the roof for both men.

Picking this team, as currently populated, to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the third year in a row is unwise. The Oilers aren’t developing the kids at pace, and defensive mistakes are rife.

All of that understood, it’s the goaltending.