Is there an obvious solution to fixing the Edmonton Oilers? Could all be well again with the Oilers if they simply found a way to bring back ex-d-man coach Paul Coffey?
It’s not clear why Coffey left the team after two years coaching the d-men. No NHL insider has ever provided an explanation, though there’s been talk of him having a cranky back and maybe not being the exact right cup of team to get along with his fellow coaches. But we’re just guessing here.
What we can say with certainty is that there was a remarkable improvement in the play of almost every Oilers d-man after Coffey took over from former d-man coach David Manson in the November 2023, and there’s been a marked collapse of the two-way play of the d-men without Coffey this fall.
With Coffey in charge of the defence, the d-men helped create Grade A shots at a higher rate and they leaked fewer Grade A shots against.
Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak, Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse were all better under Coffey than they were under Manson before and new coach Mark Stuart now, with Bouchard and Ekholm being markedly improved under the Oil’s former Hall of Fame d-man.
Coffey made it his calling card to insist that d-men make plays and not simply throw away the puck under pressure. Is that what is missing now?
As I wrote last July when we all heard Coffey would not be coming back, he did an outstanding job improving the play of almost every single Oilers d-man. At the same time, his defensive pairings in the playoffs were often perplexing. A lot of that had to do with the annual playoff slide in play of top d-man Darnell Nurse, and the ongoing difficulty of finding a partner who worked with Nurse in the playoffs. But Nurse’s play in the regular season had picked up markedly in Coffey’s second year as d-man coach.
Coffey did something right, it’s clear, even as he didn’t always nail those playoff d-man pairings.
We track the performance of d-men on the Oilers through video review of all Grade A shots, looking at their contributions to Grade A shots for and their mistakes on Grade A shots against. We’ve been doing this work for 15 years now. In that time, few d-men have able to make individual plays to create more Grade A shots at even strength than they’ve leaked in their own zone. This is due to the nature of the position, with not much offensive opportunity and a ton of defensive responsibility.
But under Coffey, Evan Bouchard surpassed that mark by creating more than he gave up, Jake Walman hit it on the nose and Mattias Ekholm came mighty close, all indicating strong-to-excellent two0way play for those d-men under Coffey.
comp
If we go by the numbers found in the Cult’s video review, Bouchard went from -0.14 Grade A shots per game in the 2022-23 and first 13 games of the 2023-24 season under Dave Manson to +0.37 Grade A shots per game under Coffey in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 regular seasons.
Ekholm went from -0.46 per game under Manson to -0.12 under Coffey, Brett Kulak from -0.86 to -0.59. Nurse stayed about the same, but trended up fast in the 2024-25 regular season.
Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais’s play dropped somewhat under Coffey, as did Philip Broberg’s play, though it was in an exceedingly small sample size of 46 even strength minutes for Broberg under Coffey in the 2023-24 regular season. And we all know that Coffey went with Broberg in the 2024 Final against Florida and the young d-man did so well he earned a massive offer sheet from St. Louis. Broberg evidently also benefitted from Coffey’s coaching.
With Stuart, the play of the d-men as a group has dropped off significantly. Of course, there’s only been 15 games under Stuart, another small sample size. We also know that Stuart has done brilliant work with the PK in the 2024 playoffs. Nonetheless, the trend is worrisome, enough to make me wonder how things would be going if Coffey were still the boss.
Bouchard’s play has collapsed from +0.37 Grade A shots per game under Coffey to -0.64 per game under Stuart, and the same with Nurse, -0.37 to -1.02 Grade A shots per game.
Ekholm has gone from -0.12 per game under Coffey to -0.5 under Stuart. Kulak has dropped from -0.59 to -0.89, Walman from 0.0 to -0.7.
Again, this is a small sample size of games for Stuart. Perhaps he and his d-men will figure it out. They have been trending up somewhat after a super rough start.
But if things don’t pick up markedly on defence, a change might well be in order. What, if anything, would it take to get Paul Coffey back?
Under Dave Manson
Manson
Under Paul Coffey
Coffey
Under Mark Stuart
Stuart
At the Cult of Hockey
STAPLES: ‘Sometimes you have to coach’: Knoblauch prodded to cut ice time of Oilers superstars
STAPLES: ‘Bodies have to go’: Top NHL insider predicts rapid roster moves for Edmonton Oilers
Â