CHICAGO — Chicago Blackhawks captain Nick Foligno glances into the stands like most players during games. It’s only natural when thousands of people are looking in and you’re among the few looking out.

Within those glances early this season, Foligno thought a few of the Blackhawks’ home crowds appeared a little smaller than usual, but he wasn’t certain. It’s not as if he was counting heads at the United Center.

“I didn’t know if it was just my eyes or whatever,” Foligno said after practice Monday.

It wasn’t his eyes. The Blackhawks’ crowds mostly haven’t been to where Foligno has come to experience them over the past few years. The Blackhawks have had only six home games through their first 16 games, but their average crowds have been smaller than normal. They’re averaging 16,806 fans, which ranks 22nd in the league. They have drawn fewer than 17,000 fans in four of those games, which is something that occurred only five times last season.

It’s been five seasons since Chicago’s streak of 535 consecutive sellouts ended, but the franchise has still drawn respectable crowds most years, even as it has gone through a full rebuild. The Blackhawks averaged more than 18,000 fans in three of the past four seasons. They were fifth in attendance with an average of 18,490 fans in the 2021-22 season. That dropped to 17,167 in the 2022-23 season as they began their roster teardown. They bounced back in the 2023-24 season with an average of 18,836 fans, ranking fifth, after drafting Connor Bedard, and they drew 18,585 people per game last season, which was 10th in the league.

The unknown as of now is whether the Blackhawks’ early-season attendance numbers are predictive of the season’s direction. The Blackhawks weren’t expected to struggle for crowds this season, considering they were celebrating their centennial anniversary and had several promotions and special ceremonies planned around it. There was also an assumed boost in fans’ interest based on how Bedard, Frank Nazar and several young players finished last season. Blackhawks chairman and CEO Danny Wirtz also described the franchise’s business as “healthy” just days after the season opener in October.

But let’s take a deeper dive. There are some possible explanations for why the Blackhawks have drawn fewer fans this season. We’ll lay those out and analyze whether the Blackhawks might be able to anticipate large crowds in the coming months.

First, the Blackhawks did have some local sports competition. They were able to avoid going up against the Chicago Cubs’ playoff games outside of the Blackhawks’ home opener, which still drew 19,344 fans. But the Blackhawks have had games the same day as the Chicago Bears three times this season, and the Blackhawks had fewer than 17,000 fans at all of those games. Only once were the Bears a direct competition at the same time, and the Bears’ schedule usually doesn’t factor too much into how the Blackhawks draw, but the Bears are the city’s most popular team and are faring well, so it’s worth considering.

Another potential reason for the early numbers could be not reaching as many TV viewers last season after starting up Chicago Sports Network (CHSN) with the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Bulls. Without Comcast carriage, especially, the Blackhawks’ viewership was down 78 percent, or 40,000 homes, compared to the 2023-24 season, according to a Sports Business Journal report. The Blackhawks were well aware it could come back to bite them somewhere, but they weren’t sure where.

There’s also the Blackhawks’ on-ice results to consider. Over the past three seasons, they finished 30th, 31st and 31st in the standings. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, excluding being a 12th seed in the 2020 bubble playoffs, and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2015. Even with the younger players performing better late last season, not as many people were seeing them because of CHSN’s limited accessibility.

Of course, season ticket prices and individual game prices always play some sort of factor into whether people buy tickets. The Blackhawks have been careful not to drastically increase prices, but they have gone up annually. The Blackhawks announced in February that average full-season ticket prices would increase by 1 percent this season and 80 percent of their season ticket holders wouldn’t have an increase of more than 2 percent. The Blackhawks have also created more partial-season ticket plans in recent years, which can attract more fans, but it also has the potential to reduce full-season ticket holders.

Starting with the season ticket and individual game prices, the Blackhawks don’t believe they’ve outpriced themselves. Although they wouldn’t divulge specific numbers, a spokesperson said they have about the same number of full-time season ticket holders as last season. The Blackhawks have set caps on the number of season ticket memberships sold in various sections to give the organization more flexibility in selling individual and group tickets. The Blackhawks also believe that with a get-in price starting at $35 and family packs starting at about $50 per ticket, they are an affordable option for fans. The 100 section and suites have been two of the more noticeable areas of the stadium not filled during the less-attended games. The Blackhawks attempted to capitalize on Bedard’s recent hat trick by discounting 100-level tickets to $98.

The Blackhawks discounted 100-level tickets to $98 after Connor Bedard’s recent hat trick. (Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

As for the on-ice results, it’s hard to believe fans are starting to give up on general manager Kyle Davidson’s rebuild and abandon their fandom after enduring recent years. The Blackhawks have benefited greatly from their latest three Stanley Cup championships, but plenty of fans still seemed to cling to the Blackhawks through some dark times over the past five years. If anything, the worst of the on-ice performances should be behind them. The future does appear brighter.

“You got to win,” Foligno said. “As a fan, that’s what they expect. I think there’s a rich history here. I think, at the end of the day, our fans are great and they’re going to show up. It could be a multitude of different reasons (the crowds have been smaller). I think, most importantly, we got to win. That’s just the reality of it.”

The Blackhawks are starting to win more. With an 8-5-3 record, they’re off to their best start through 16 games since the 2016-17 season. Bedard has upped his game and is producing at an elite level. He has had plenty of help, with Nazar, Spencer Knight, Tyler Bertuzzi, André Burakovsky, Wyatt Kaiser and Artyom Levshunov, among others, contributing to the team’s start. Traditionally, when the Blackhawks are winning games and playing exciting hockey, the fans follow.

“I think, hopefully, this last bit has got some interest and some people excited about what we’re trying to do here,” Foligno said.

Which brings us to CHSN. People’s inability to tune into the Blackhawks’ games last season seemed to turn off a lot of people. Viewership has increased with CHSN getting Comcast carriage, though eliminating the over-the-air option locally, since the end of last season. A team spokesperson said the Blackhawks have more than doubled their viewership from last season’s average. Comcast is part of that, but fans have also shown more of a willingness to pay for CHSN through its app. The Blackhawks reported subscriptions were five times greater than last season.

“It’s not a knock on (anyone); they have their reasons why we weren’t on TV, but it’s the world we live in,” Foligno said. “If you’re not accessible anymore, it’s tough to get new fans or keep the ones you have. They’re used to a certain standard. I think that probably hurt us a little bit. But I’m sure we’ll get fans back in the stands, people watching. It just takes time to grow that.”

The Blackhawks are hoping there’s simply a lag between fans seeing those games on CHSN and deciding to attend them, and the early-season attendances were just a blip. The Blackhawks ultimately believe their business is healthy, as Wirtz stated. Merchandise is selling better than expected. They’re selling jerseys, with Bedard, Nazar and Knight leading the way. Their social media posts, especially the ones driven by their young players, are being highly consumed by people. They also know some games have already sold well for the rest of the season.

“We’re seeing high levels of fan engagement in content around our players this season as they begin to gel together and cement themselves in the NHL,” Blackhawks president of business Jaime Faulkner said through a team spokesperson. “From a roster that is incredibly fun to watch to our upcoming centennial celebrations, we’re seeing the demand for our games continue to grow as fans seek to experience this team live.”

The Blackhawks should have a better indication soon whether their attendance will come around. After a six-game trip, eight of their next nine games are at the United Center. Plenty of tickets are still available for Wednesday’s home game against the New Jersey Devils, but that was always likely to be a tough sell with a weekday 8:30 p.m. start. The Blackhawks have already sold nearly all their tickets for Saturday’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but that’s expected, too. It’ll be with the games that follow when we’ll start to see where attendances are landing.