Matthew Schaefer’s rookie season has quickly become one of the most exciting stories in the NHL. The 18-year-old defenseman has stepped into the New York Islanders lineup with confidence and personality, giving the team a spark they badly needed. His early impact has placed him in conversations that usually take years to reach, and his name now circles around national discussions far sooner than expected.

That attention arrives as Team Canada prepares for the 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Milano Cortina, with the men’s hockey tournament beginning Feb. 11. Canada’s first game comes on Feb. 12 against Czechia, and with roster decisions approaching, the debate around potential spots on defence is growing louder.

Schaefer’s play has naturally pushed him into the picture, setting up a transition into the real question facing him now.

Is Matthew Schaefer’s Olympic Dream Already Slipping Away?

Schaefer’s start has been impossible to overlook. The first pick in the 2025 NHL Draft has already made a big impression with seven goals and 15 points in 19 games while averaging more than 22 minutes each night. His overtime winner on Friday, which made him the youngest player in NHL history to score an OT goal, highlighted his rising confidence. He has become a key part of the Islanders’ early success, including their 4-0-0 run to begin their road trip.

​Despite all of this, his Olympic hopes may not match the pace of his NHL rise. In the latest edition of 32 Thoughts, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman gave a clear look at why Schaefer might not make Team Canada this time, even with his impressive debut season.

Friedman acknowledged how the young defenceman forced his way into the national conversation, then offered a blunt assessment of his chances:

“I have to say this, so we got Celebrini, we got Bedard, and you know, Matthew Schaefer, I give this kid a lot of credit. He has forced his way into the conversation. So I don’t think Schaefer’s going, right? I just don’t think he’s going.”

He added that Canada’s hesitation comes from the experience gap between the young stars and the veteran defenders already in the mix:

“Celebrini is a great player, Bedard’s taken a huge step, Schaefer is unreal. I believe that Canada’s nervous with these three guys is having all three of them in a big game because they haven’t played at the senior level games like that. Well, that’s just it.”

Canada has leaned toward players who have won at the highest levels. Defenders such as Cale Makar, Josh Morrissey, Alex Pietrangelo, Devon Toews, Thomas Harley, Travis Sanheim, and even an injured Drew Doughty remain strong options due to their playoff backgrounds and championship experience. Breaking into that group requires something exceptional, and while Schaefer has delivered eye-catching moments, Canada may prefer proven names for high-pressure Olympic games.

Also Read: Islanders Sensation Matthew Schaefer Unseats Sidney Crosby in NHL History Books

Even so, Schaefer’s season remains a major victory. His long-range goals, heavy minutes, confident interviews, and growing influence show how quickly he is adapting. He is currently on a three-year rookie contract through 2027-28 before becoming a restricted free agent.

New York’s next game comes on Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST against the Dallas Stars, and Schaefer will again be central to their plans. Whether or not he wears the red maple leaf this February, his rookie year has already changed expectations. His rise is moving fast, and his name will not be leaving the Team Canada conversation anytime soon.