The Ottawa Senators enter Saturday’s matchup against the San Jose Sharks with major momentum. Ottawa has won 2 consecutive head-to-head meetings against San Jose. The Senators boast 70% recent form with 8 points in last 9 games. Testing San Jose at 7:00 PM ET on Nov. 22, 2025.
🔥 Quick Facts:
Senators have beaten Sharks in 2 straight meetings including 5-3 March 1 and 4-3 Nov. 27
Ottawa earned points in 8 of last 9 games with 5-1-3 record
Sharks hold 3-2 record in last 5 games recently
Dimers projects 59% win probability for Ottawa
Moneyline favors Senators at -162 odds
Why Senators Look Unstoppable
Ottawa rides a historic hot streak into this matchup. The team earned points in 8 of their last 9 games. That’s 5 wins, 1 regulation loss, and 3 overtime decisions. But here’s the thing—the Senators just started a seven-game road trip with a 3-2 victory over Boston on Thursday.
Defensively, Ottawa’s numbers shine. The team allows 3.35 goals per game. Offensively, they average 3.25 goals per contest. These stats translate to actual wins. Plus, Ottawa scores 26.5 shots per game while opponent shots sit at 25.4 per night.
Head-to-Head Dominance Tells Story
Ottawa demolished San Jose when they last met. The Senators won 5-3 on March 1, 2025. Before that? Another 4-3 Senators victory on November 27, 2024. That’s 2 straight head-to-head wins for Ottawa. Historical records show the teams played 46 games all-time. San Jose holds slight edge at 20 wins to Ottawa’s 21 wins.
Direct matchups matter in hockey. Recent trends favor Ottawa heavily. San Jose hasn’t beaten these Senators since March 9, 2024. That’s been almost a full year of futility against this opponent.
Sharks Still Dangerous Despite Struggles
Statistic
Senators
Sharks
Record
10-6-4
10-8-3
Last 5 Games
3-2-0
3-2-0
Goals Per Game
3.25
2.95
Goals Against Avg
3.35
3.19
Shots Per Game
26.5
24.1
Head-to-Head Record
4 Wins (Last 5)
1 Win (Last 5)
San Jose still showed 3-2 form in last 5 games. The Sharks generate 24.1 shots per night and allow 31.5 shots against. That defensive vulnerability could matter against Ottawa’s 26.5 shot average. San Jose averages 2.95 goals scored while giving up 3.19 per contest. They’re struggling but not helpless.
Betting Markets Love Senators Heavily
Money tells the story in sports betting. Dimers projects 59% win probability for Ottawa. San Jose gets just 41% according to their advanced model. The moneyline shows Senators at -162 while Sharks sit at +132.
But here’s key context—Ottawa is 3-1 when playing as favorites with -162 odds or shorter. That’s a 75% win rate from shorter moneylines. San Jose has now been an underdog in 21 games this season. The spread was set at -1.5 in Senators’ favor.
Expert picks lean toward Ottawa. FanDuel reported Senators favored 1.5 goals. Multiple analysts projected scores ranging from Senators 4-3 Sharks to Senators 4 Sharks 3. Over/under settled near 5.5 to 6.0 goals total.
What Makes This Game Less Certain?
Despite Ottawa’s dominance, San Jose owns recent momentum matching Senators. Both teams went 3-2 in last 5 games. Hockey’s unpredictability means upset potential always exists. Home ice matters. San Jose plays at home in this matchup. The Sharks hold 6-3 home record for their season.
Road woes could hurt Ottawa. The Senators posted 4-3-2 road record in recent stretch. Start of a seven-game road trip creates adjustment challenges. And sport teaches us that favorites don’t always win—they just win more often. Don’t sleep on San Jose’s capability to steal this one despite the oddsmakers’ predictions leaning heavily Ottawa’s direction.
Sources
Dimers – Advanced modeling and win probability projections
FanDuel Research – Game spreads and moneyline odds analysis
ESPN – Team statistics and season performance data
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.