Two weeks ago, the Detroit Red Wings were out of a playoff position. One week later, they led the Atlantic Division. Today, they’re outside of the postseason field again.
That’s how tightly teams are packed in the Eastern Conference, where the top 12 clubs are separated by five points. A good week will elevate a team several spots and a bad week will send it plummeting.
The Red Wings (13-10-1) have dropped back-to-back games, including Wednesday’s ugly 6-3 loss to Nashville, and lost three-of-four.
They are 10th in the Eastern Conference in points percentage (.563) on Thanksgiving. Not a big deal since they have 58 games remaining, nearly three-quarters of the season. Right?
Well, maybe. Maybe not.
Former Red Wings general manager Ken Holland, now the GM of the Los Angeles Kings, often cited this longstanding NHL Thanksgiving benchmark – teams in a playoff position on this holiday usually make the field.
Since 2005-06, roughly 75 percent of teams in a postseason spot on Thanksgiving went on to qualify. In each of the past two seasons, 12 of the 16 teams above the playoff line got in.
A year ago, the Red Wings were tied for 10th in the East in points percentage at .500 (10-10-2) and went on to miss the playoffs for the ninth year in a row. In the East, the New York Rangers and Buffalo were supplanted by Ottawa and Montreal in the end. In the West, Calgary and Vancouver dropped out while Edmonton and St. Louis qualified.
Red Wings coach Todd McLellan has believed in this gauge in the past but believes there could be more volatility this season.
“I think the numbers stack up and the percentages say there’s a lot to that, but it’s not 100 percent accurate,” McLellan said last week. “And this year it’s probably going to get tested based on where we’re at.”
The Red Wings host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a Black Friday matinee (noon, FanDuel Sports Network). The Lightning (14-7-2) have won five in a row and are 13-3-0 following a 1-4-2 start.