The Pittsburgh Penguins (12-7-5) and Philadelphia Flyers (14-7-3) clash in a Monday Metropolitan Division game. The opening puck drop from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, will be at 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Penguins vs. Flyers odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Flyers lead 1-0
Pittsburgh fell 7-2 (Over 6.5) to the -102 Toronto Maple Leafs Saturday. The loss closed out a shaky November for the Penguins, who begin a 3-game road trip with their Monday game in Philly. Pittsburgh went 4-5-3 with a minus-9 goal differential in a dozen November games.
Philadelphia also played its most recent game Saturday. The Flyers, who downed the Pens 3-2 in a shootout Oct. 28 and are 3-1 across the last 4 series meetings, defeated the -137 New Jersey Devils 5-3 (Over 5.5) in a contest that wrapped up a stretch of 4 straight road games.
Penguins at Flyers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:06 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Penguins +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Flyers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-200) | Flyers -1.5 (+165)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)Penguins at Flyers projected goalies
Tristan Jarry (7-2-0, 2.74 GAA, .905 SV%) vs. Dan Vladar (10-4-1, 2.43 GAA, .912 SV%)
Jarry played 35 minutes in mop-up duty in Saturday’s loss to the Leafs. He allowed 3 goals. The 30-year-old filed an injury-marred November. In 4 games, he posted an .871 SV%. He’s 12-4-2 with a 3.06 GAA in 19 games against the Flyers.
Vladar went the route, allowing 3 goals while making 29 saves Saturday. The 28-year-old owns a nifty .919 SV% across his last 4 games. He’s 1-2-1 with a 2.72 GAA in 4 starts against the Penguins.
Penguins at Flyers picks and predictionsPrediction
Penguins 4, Flyers 3
Pittsburgh is 8-3-2 when playing on 1-day rest.
The Flyers have been outshot in 3 straight games and in 6 of their last 7. The Pens outshot Philadelphia 34-26 in the Oct. 28 meeting. And Philly has yielded an uptick in 5-on-5 high-danger looks over recent weeks.
Peg the Penguins as being somewhat unfortunate so far in even-strength play. Analytics are stronger than results, especially in the scoring department. And its notable that a strong Pittsburgh power play (30.4%, second NHL) has filed just 1.9 chances per game since Nov. 8.
The visiting skaters in this one are likely facing an on-a-roll Vladar. He has been excellent so far, but his numbers are likely ballooned a bit by some due-for-regression short-handed and high-danger percentages.
It all makes for PITTSBURGH (+118) being a nice value.
No interest. PASS.
The Over has cashed in back-to-back Penguins games and in 3 straight Flyers games. The Under prevailed in the Oct. 28 game, but the last 6 series meetings have Over tilt of 4-2.
The value here is mostly on Pittsburgh figuring as a club that has depressed 5-on-5 numbers at both ends of the ice. The Pens are likely a solid Over option for the near future, and that includes Monday’s contest at Philly.
BACK THE OVER 6 (-105).
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