The Edmonton Oilers have tried everything except one thing to get Trent Frederic going.
They’ve tried him on the top line and demoted him to the fourth line. They’ve tried him on every line and with every combination of players inbetween. They’ve tried him on the power play. They’ve had him at centre and on the wing.
The last thing to try? Sit Frederic in the pressbox for a game or two.
Frederic does provide some physical play, but the pressbox is a real option, given how poor he’s been on defence, with the highest rate of mistakes on Grade A shots against of any Oilers winger, and with how little he’s bringing on the attack.
He’s not scoring and he’s not close to scoring.
Sometimes a player isn’t scoring, but he’s due to score some goals because he’s getting off all kinds of Grade A shots on net. As the result of bad luck or great goaltending or both, he’s simply not scoring goals yet.
But that’s the not the case with Frederic this year.
He’s got just two goals but he’s made just 16 Grade A shots on net in 26 games, 0.6 per game. He’s got a 12.5 per cent conversion rate on his Grade A shots, which is a bit low, but his Grade A shot creation rate is so low that it’s fair to say he should have three goals by now, not just two. There’s not much difference there.
This is all discouraging for a player who just signed an eight-year deal with the Oilers for $3.85 million per year. Five or six goals by now, along with strong physical and defensive play, woudl be aligned with that kind of contract.
But not to be.
Grade A 27 games
So what to do?
It’s time to sit Frederic. He’s playing tonight against the Wild, but David Tomasek is a better player than Frederic right now on merit and should play ahead of him.
It’s that simple. The coaches job is to get the right players on the ice to maximize Edmonton’s chances of winning, and Tomasek is more likely to help the Oilers win right now than Frederic.
You might worry about a drop in physical play but rookie Connor Clattenburg is providing far more in that department than Frederic has so far this year.
Sitting Frederic is the responsible move for the coach in the name of the team.
P.S. The one forward who consistently scores on a high percentage of his Grade A shots? Leon Draisaitl, who has 15 goals on 51 Grade A shots this year, good for a 29.4 per cent conversion rate.
Here’s how he’s done in recent years in terms of converting Grade A shots into goals (with the team’s average in these years around 25% on Grade A shots):
At the Cult of Hockey
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