Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes
07:00 PM at Lenovo Center
Watch on: TSN4, FDSNSO
The Leafs last game was away on December 2 against the Florida Panthers, which Toronto won by a score of 4-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 12-11-3 for a 0.519 Points %.
The Carolina Hurricanes last played at home on November 30 against the Calgary Flames. The Hurricanes won by a score of 1-0 in overtime, and their current league record is 16-7-2 for a 0.680 Points %.
Them
The Hurricanes have some injuries, with Jaccob Slavin and Pyotr Kochetkov nearing return. Even with these troubles, and their use of a third string goalie for eight games and Kochetkov for only 5, they are actually first in the Eastern Conference by Points %.
At five-on-five, their worst attribute is Expected Goals against and their seventh in the NHL. They are first and second in almost all other categories. Their power play is good, and their PK is also good. Both are top 10 by Expected Goals.
They have the same issue they have always had. They underscore expected by a lot on the power play, rendering it near the bottom of the league in goal rate, but at five-on-five this season, they are scoring like they never have before. Almost at Toronto’s rate. Which makes them fourth in the NHL.
Carolina doesn’t seem to believe in stable goaltending and theirs is on the low side of mediocre. Their goaltending shorthanded is bad enough to nullify the PK quite a bit.
It is very odd to see the Hurricanes scoring over expected, and a lot of it is Seth Jarvis who is legit. He’s only a bit over expected and his 15 goals are coming from solid foundations. Jordan Staal and Eric Robinson have had unsustainable luck. In general, Carolina has stopped focusing their offence so heavily on defender shots and has moved into the net-front and slot more than they ever have.
Numerically, the Expected Goals haven’t gone up much, but if you believe, as I always have, that their system was part illusion of massive volume that gave an expected goals number that was never going to be met, this change is bad news for the rest of the NHL. They’ve lost none of their possession advantage in changing their style of offence a bit.
The Avs are the only team better than them. At pretty much anything outside of goaltending.
Lines
Walt Ruff via Daily Faceoff from yesterday’s practice.
Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
Nikolaj Ehlers – Logan Stankoven – Jackson Blake
William Carrier – Jordan Staal – Jordan Martinook
Taylor Hall – Mark Jankowski – Eric Robinson
K’Andre Miller – Sean Walker
Shayne Gostisbehere – Jalen Chatfield
Alexander Nikishin – Joel Nystrom
Frederik Andersen – assumed starter
Brandon Bussi
Us
This is the big test. The first time the Leafs played the Hurricanes, they got a big lead and then Carolina roared back to win it. That contest was a battle of the third goalies with Hildeby facing Bussi. Tonight Joe Woll gets the start again and there are no changes from the last game.
Lines
Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff from yesterday’s practice
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Max Domi
Easton Cowan – John Tavares – William Nylander
Dakota Joshua – Nicolas Roy – Bobby McMann
Steven Lorentz – Scott Laughton – Nicholas Robertson
Morgan Rielly – Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe – Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit – Philippe Myers
Joe Woll – starter
Dennis Hildeby
The Game
The Leafs have to do everything they did against the Panthers only more so, and no slacking off if they get a lead. They are one of the few teams in the NHL that scores more than Carolina. They aren’t going to win by hanging back and trying to defend. Mostly because they’re bad at it.