The Pittsburgh Penguins will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7 p.m. EST on Thursday. Despite sitting in drastically different positions in their respective divisions, these teams have had similarly successful seasons, with the Penguins going 13-7-5 while the Lightning has attained a 16-8-2 mark. Thursday’s contest represents an important test for both teams as they continue to try to establish themselves as playoff contenders.
At first glance, the Pittsburgh offense has not been particularly impressive. The Penguins sit near the middle of the pack in almost every single offensive statistic except for one: power play percentage. They are first in that category by a somewhat wide margin, a stat that has allowed the Penguins to overcome a seemingly mediocre offense to come up with clutch goals. The combination of centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin has been the source of the vast majority of Pittsburgh’s scoring, and they will have to continue to shoulder the load to keep up with a dangerous Tampa Bay team.
Unlike the Penguins, the Lightning rank inside the top 10 in goals per game, assists, and points. However, Tampa Bay only has a 16.1% power play percentage, less than half of Pittsburgh’s number. It is fair to expect the Penguins to maintain that advantage throughout Thursday’s contest, putting the onus on Tampa Bay’s defenders to keep their team in the game. While goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been excellent, the defense as a whole has not been particularly strong, opening the door for a strong showing from the Penguins.
Penguins +1.5 (-138)Lightning -1.5 (+127)Penguins +178Lightning -186Over 6.5 (+113)Under 6.5 (-127)
Note: The above data was collected on Dec. 4, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Penguins vs Lightning Betting TrendsThe Penguins are 18-7 ATS, one of the best records in the NHL.The Penguins are 10-4 ATS when playing on the road.The under is 13-12 in Pittsburgh’s games.The Lightning are 12-14 ATS this season.The Lightning are 3-10 ATS when playing at home.The under is 14-12 in Tampa Bay’s games.Penguins vs Lightning Injury ReportsNoel Acciari, C – Out.Filip Hallander, C – Out.Tanner Howe, C – Out.Joona Koppanen, LW – Out.Justin Brazeau, LW – Out.Rickard Rackell, RW – Out.Caleb Jones, D – Out.Jack St. Ivany, D – Out.Brayden Point, C – Out.Victor Hedman, D – Out.Ryan McDonagh, D – Out.Erik Cernak, D – Out.Maxwell Crozier, D – Out.Penguins vs Lightning Prediction and Pick
Even with an injury report a mile long, the Penguins are the right pick in this game. Pittsburgh has consistently covered in games like this one, and the Lightning are not exactly at full health themselves. The discrepancy in power play percentage will also be a huge factor here, as the Penguins should be able to take advantage of their ability to create power play advantages throughout this contest. Pittsburgh should cover and has a good shot of winning outright.