Thirty years ago today, there was a very good team with one crucial flaw.
They had an excellent roster, one that included two of the very best centers of their era. The forward depth was good. They had a decent blue line anchored by one of the better young offensive defensemen in the league. They had a good young coach. But the flaw was in goal — they had some decent goalies, but nobody who could be The Guy, the sort of stud who could steal a playoff series or two on the long road to a championship.
Stop me if any of this sounds familiar, Edmonton Oilers fans.
Our team is the 1995-96 Colorado Avalanche and you know how the story ends. Tomorrow marks the 30th anniversary of the biggest transaction in franchise history. On Dec. 6, 1995, the Avalanche acquired Patrick Roy from the Montreal Canadiens in a five-player trade, and the rest was history. They won the Stanley Cup that very year, followed not long after by another. Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg went to the Hall of Fame with multiple rings. And it all happened because Colorado’s front office recognized a problem and took the biggest swing possible to fix it.
Could this year’s Oilers do the same?
The short answer: No, of course not.
We all know why. There’s a salary cap now. Trading is too hard, especially during the season. The price would be too high. Great players are almost never traded these days. And there’s also the not-very-small detail that Roy had basically walked out on his team a few days earlier, forcing Montreal to make a lopsided deal they wouldn’t otherwise have made. No elite goalies are doing that these days.
OK, sure. This year’s Oilers can’t take a big swing. It’s impossible to land a Roy-sized talent, or even anything close, even if it would be the last piece of a Stanley Cup puzzle. We have to be realistic, and we all know that when the Oilers eventually make their move, it will look a lot more like the 2024 Avs than the 1995 version – which is to say, they’ll try to find a Mackenzie Blackwood or Scott Wedgewood, then hope for the best. Or maybe they won’t do anything at all, and just roll the dice on yet another Stuart Skinner playoff run. But a blockbuster? Never going to happen.
Fine. But what if it did?
Today, let’s indulge in a little bit of make-believe. Let’s pretend we live in an alternate NHL world where a team that was one star goalie away from a championship would actually, you know, go get a star goalie.
Which goalies could be the Oilers’ Patrick Roy? I have six suggestions. None of them are remotely realistic in today’s NHL. This is just a little Friday fun, a thought experiment to take you into the weekend. We’ll go from the most to the least plausible.
They could trade for: Jordan Binnington
The goalie: Jordan Binnington, 32, has one more year after this one on a deal that carries an AAV of $6 million. He has a 14-team no-trade clause.
Why it’s dumb: The Oilers aren’t getting great goaltending, so they should go out and acquire a guy who’s been one of the worst goalies in the league so far this season. Cool, we’re off to a great start.
But hear me out: Yes, Binnington’s been bad this year. But that’s why he’d be available, and potentially at a reasonable price. The contract isn’t as onerous as others we’ll get to, both in AAV and (especially) term. And while his current numbers are ugly, Binnington was better last year and very good the year before that. He also has a Stanley Cup ring (that he won in a Game 7), and delivered a standout performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off gold-medal game that bought enough time for Canada to win in OT. Hey, who scored that sudden-death winner? I wonder if that guy would like a reunion with the goalie who helped it happen.
No really, it’s dumb: This would be just about the ultimate “sell low” move by the St. Louis Blues.
OK but: They’re on their way to a wasted season and have a new GM incoming. The time to start a rebuild is now. The guy to start it with is the aging goalie with just one full year left on his deal, especially if he may be feuding with his coach. And the team to target is the one that should (in theory) be desperate to acquire a goaltender who’s actually won something.
Bottom line: Honestly, if you think this one is unrealistic, the rest are going to get way worse. Feel free to back out now.
John Gibson could be a relatively cheap option out of Detroit. (Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images)
They could trade for: John Gibson
The goalie: John Gibson, 32, has one year left after this one on a deal that carries a $6.4 million cap hit. He has a 10-team no-trade clause.
Why it’s dumb: Gibson just went from the Anaheim Ducks to the Detroit Red Wings in the summer, so it would be weird to see him move again. And other than maybe last year, he hasn’t been good in a long time. Right now, his numbers are worse than Skinner’s. What are we doing?
But hear me out: Admittedly, Gibson is the weakest option of the bunch in terms of being an upgrade over what the Oilers have now. But he’s still a relatively big name, and it’s not unrealistic to imagine that the Wings might be having some buyer’s remorse. And since he was just traded a few months ago, it wouldn’t be that hard to haggle on a price now.
No really, it’s dumb: About that buyer’s remorse — GMs like Steve Yzerman don’t often throw in the towel on their own big moves after just two months. And if he was somehow willing to consider it, what would that say? A guy who isn’t good enough for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade is the missing piece for a Cup contender?
OK but: The Wings have been getting solid goaltending from Cam Talbot and Sebastian Cossa sure looks ready, so they might be open to talking here. Gibson’s numbers aren’t great, but he’s had some stretches in recent years where he’s looked very good, especially earlier in seasons before the Ducks wore him out. Have him split time with Skinner and then play the hot hand during the playoffs, and at least nobody can say you didn’t try something.
Bottom line: This is my least favorite option if I’m an Oilers fan, but it could make some sense for both sides.
They could trade for: Juuse Saros
The goalie: Juuse Saros, 30, is in the first year of the eight-year extension he signed last summer. His AAV is $7.74 million. He also has a no-move clause.
Why it’s dumb: Coming off a down year, Saros is posting pretty much the same numbers, so this is now a trend. His numbers are barely better than what the Oilers are getting now, at a much higher price.
But hear me out: Saros finished in the top six in Vezina voting for four straight years from 2021 to 2024, so there’s a recent body of work that proves he can be elite. No, he hasn’t been good the last two seasons, but nobody in Nashville has. This is the perfect opportunity to buy low on a guy the Predators should be looking to move.
No really, it’s dumb: They’d be looking to move him because his contract could be a disaster if he can’t turn this around. If you trade for him and he isn’t the answer, you’re stuck with him for seven more years. Hard pass.
OK but: First of all, Saros is already just the tenth highest-paid goalie in the league, and in a rising cap world, that number will drop. Far more important, you have three years — at the most — to win with Connor McDavid. If Saros (or any other goalie with a long-term contract) can be the guy to make it happen, he’s worth whatever future cap headaches he’ll cause. The Oilers may be the most “flags fly forever” team in recent NHL history, and the balance sheet in 2033 is not something they should be remotely worried about.
Bottom line: Given Saros’s recent track record, file this one under “high risk, high reward.” Also, this is your last warning before this gets very silly.
They could trade for: Sergei Bobrovsky
The goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky, 37, is in the last year of a contract that carries a $10 million cap hit. He has a 16-team no-trade clause.
Why it’s dumb: Have we mentioned that the Oilers are flush up against the cap? They can’t afford any of these goalies, let alone one making eight figures. And by the way, Bobrovsky hasn’t been good this year.
But hear me out: First of all, you wouldn’t be getting Bobrovsky for what he’s done in October and November. It would be about his playoff resume, which includes two Stanley Cups he won against some team whose name escapes me right now.
As for the cap … yeah, that complicates things, absolutely. There are ways around that — including teams taking back contracts or retaining salary – but it won’t be easy. I think you could argue that this is the sort of problem you pay a guy like Stan Bowman a lot of money to solve, but it is indeed a problem. For the purpose of today’s piece, we kind of have to assume cap hits (and no-trade clauses) can be accommodated, but that could be a fantasy.
No really, it’s dumb: And the win-now Panthers are trading their starting goalie in the middle of their quest for a three-peat … why?
OK but: In this scenario, we’re assuming the Panthers have fallen out of the playoff race. And while they’re not there yet, it’s not a completely impossible outcome given they were dead last in the East just a few days ago. If we get into the new year and they’re out of the running because all their injuries have turned this into one of those seasons where nothing clicks, wouldn’t they want to at least explore the market on Bobrovsky’s expiring deal?
Bottom line: Bobrovsky goes to Edmonton, wins the Cup, cements his first-ballot HHOF status, and then re-signs with the Panthers in the offseason on a deal with a $2 million cap hit that runs until he’s 45. Don’t act like you couldn’t see it.
If you want a Stanley Cup-winning goalie, why not get the one who beat you twice in a row? (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
They could trade for: Ilya Sorokin
The goalie: Ilya Sorokin, 30, is in the second year of an eight-year deal that carries a cap hit of $8.25 million. He also has a no-move clause.
Why it’s dumb: He’s one of the best goalies in the league, having finished sixth in Vezina voting last year. The New York Islanders are in a quasi-rebuild, and having a solid-to-great goalie makes that much easier. Sorokin isn’t young anymore, but he’s young enough to have plenty left in the tank. And the Islanders are making a run at a surprising playoff spot this year.
But hear me out: Yeah, I’ll admit that this one made way more sense in the offseason. Back then, you could imagine a scenario where the Islanders struggled and new GM Mathieu Darche decided to execute a more aggressive rebuild around Matthew Schaefer. If it had played out that way, holding the Oilers up for ransom on an elite goaltender could have made some sense. With the team over .500 and in the playoff race, not so much.
BUT! There’s still time. Like just about everyone else in the Eastern Conference, the Islanders are one five-game losing streak away from last place. If the season fell apart, and an increasingly desperate Stan Bowman kept calling … I mean, you’d at least listen, right?
No really, it’s dumb: They would not listen.
OK but: Sorokin is on the wrong side of 30, he hasn’t had a save percentage over .910 since 2022-23, only two goalies in the league have more money left than he does on a contract his current GM did not sign, and we may never see another team as desperate for goaltending as the Oilers could be if their season keeps going this way. They’d have to listen.
Bottom line: Look, I told you what you were signing up for with this post. If you’re still reading this far in, it’s kind of on you.
They could trade for: Igor Shesterkin
The goalie: Igor Shesterkin, 29, is in the first year of his record-shattering deal that carries a cap hit of $11.5 million. He has a full no-move clause.
Why it’s dumb: (gestures vaguely at the entirety of a reality-based existence)
But hear me out: The New York Rangers are old and not very good and probably need a rebuild, and their own GM seems to hate them and wants to blow up the roster. Shesterkin is amazing, but his contract was supposed to reset the goalie market and it hasn’t, meaning they’re left spending millions more on their starter than any other team for years to come. Jonathan Quick has been great this year, so are you really that much worse off with him getting half the starts and someone else (maybe Skinner) picking up the rest, while collecting future assets and freeing up that future cap space for better use?
As we said in a few spots here, the Oilers should be more desperate for goaltending than just about any other team in cap era history. If you’re Drury, don’t you call them up and say, “It’s going to cost you an absolute ton, but I am offering you the next three Stanley Cups on a silver platter, so let’s figure this out?”
No really, it’s dumb: It was one thing to hand-wave away $7 million for Saros or even $8 million for Sorokin, but $11.5 million in cap space, in a midseason trade, for a team that’s already capped out? No. Stop this.
OK but: I mean, if the Rangers would take back Darnell Nurse …
No really, it’s extraordinarily dumb: For what? What does this trade look like? The Rangers are giving up arguably the best goalie in the world, and maybe also taking back a pricey contract … for what? The Oilers have one of the worst prospect pipelines in the league and have already traded away this year’s first. There is simply no trade here that makes sense, even if Shesterkin were willing to waive his no-move one year into a deal he just signed. Which he would not.
Bottom line: Evan Bouchard straight up for Igor Shesterkin, who says no? Make this happen, Stan.