The Tampa Bay Lightning (16-11-2) visit the Montreal Canadiens (15-10-3), as the Atlantic Division foes tangle north of the border Tuesday. The Bolts-Habs battle at the Bell Centre will have a 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+) puck drop. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Canadiens odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
2024-25 season series: Canadiens won 2-1
Tampa Bay last played on Saturday, clocking a 2-0 (Under 6.5) loss at the +113 Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning are opening a 3-game road trip with this game in Quebec.
Montreal’s most recent game was Sunday, a 4-3 (Over 5.5) home loss to the +108 St. Louis Blues. The Canadiens, now 2-6-0 at home since Nov. 11, led that game 2-1 before faltering early in the second period.
Lightning at Canadiens odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Canadiens -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-250) | Canadiens -1.5 (+200)Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)Lightning at Canadiens projected goalies
Brandon Halverson vs. Jakub Dobes (10-4-2, 3.03 GAA, .890 SV%)
Halverson has not appeared in a game for the Lightning this year. He was recalled from AHL Syracuse (9-4-0, 2.58 GAA, .901 SV%) Thursday.
Dobes went the route in Sunday’s game against the Blues. He allowed 4 goals on 22 shots. He’s faced the Lightning once in his career, allowing 3 goals in a 21-minute relief appearance last season.
Lightning at Canadiens picks and predictionsPrediction
Lightning 4, Canadiens 3
Tampa is 5-2 across its last 7 games against Montreal. That includes the Bolts being 3-1 — with 3 multi-goal winning margins — over their last 4 games at the Bell Centre.
The Lighting have been an excellent road club of late; the Canadiens are just 7-7-1 on home ice. This contest opens a multi-game road swing for Tampa. The club has gone 3-0 across the openers of 3 other such trips. And while the Lightning have lost 3 in a row, they have outshot opponents by a wide margin in all 3 games. Their high-danger chances have been solid of late.
Montreal has been leaky of late when it comes up to yielding those better scoring chances in close. The Habs get a lot of value from their 25.6% power play, but Tampa leads the NHL in killing penalties (87%). In 5-on-5 play, Montreal has shot a blistering 12.7%; some regression is expected.
THE LIGHTING (-105) are the leverage side.
No interest; PASS.
The last 7 series games have seen the Over go 6-1.
The Bolts have scored just 4 goals in their losing skid. But over 7 previous games, they scored a robust 4.29 goals per game. Tampa’s 5-on-5 expected-goal numbers would suggest higher-scoring games — at both ends — moving forward.
And the goalie match-up is certainly not elite. Dobes got off to a terrific start this season, but he owns a lackluster .864 SV% over his last 11 games.
The total here jumped in the morning. The current figure does still have leverage, but consider a partial-unit play unless a flat-6 becomes available. TAKE THE OVER 6.5 (+100).
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