The other day, I had a question I was wondering about: How often does a team that’s .500 or worse in December manage to still make the playoffs?
And I was surprised by what turned out to be the answer: All the time.
No, literally, it happens every season. Going back to the 2013 lockout (and excluding the COVID season that didn’t start until January), at least one team that was .500 or worse in December has made the playoffs each and every season:
Last year’s Montreal Canadiens were under .500 until New Year’s Eve
The 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers were under .500 until mid-December, when they started their 16-game win streak
The 2022-23 Florida Panthers were under .500 into January
The 2021-22 Los Angeles Kings dropped to .500 with a loss in their first game in December
The 2019-20 Columbus Blue Jackets made the bubble playoffs despite being under .500 on Dec. 16
We all know the story of the last-place St. Louis Blues in 2018-19
The 2017-18 Colorado Avalanche were under .500 on Dec. 7
The 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs were stuck at .500 as late as Dec. 19
The 2015-16 Philadelphia Flyers were .500 on Dec. 11 (and again on Jan. 2)
The 2014-15 Ottawa Senators were down to .500 over the holiday break
The 2013-14 Flyers were under .500 on Dec. 15
You get the picture. In a league where making the playoffs typically requires a record that’s closer to .600, and in which we’re constantly told that the playoffs are all but set on U.S. Thanksgiving, that’s a lot of teams that should have been dead in the water but made a second-half push into the postseason. Huh.
All of which brings us back to today, and what seems like an obvious follow-up question: Which team that’s currently .500 or worse is going to pull it off this year?
I have no idea, but let’s see if we can figure it out. Let’s take a look at the eight teams that were .500 or worse heading into last night’s games, and rank them from most to least likely to be this year’s comeback story.
8. Winnipeg Jets
The season so far: The defending Presidents’ Trophy champs started strong, and were 9-3-0 on November 1. But they’ve cratered since then, dropping down to .500 heading into last night’s game against Boston.
What’s gone wrong: Connor Hellebuyck getting hurt is the big one, although it’s not their only problem. They miss Nikolaj Ehlers, the blue line has been shaky and way too many forwards are getting Ds on their report cards.
How they could fix it: Hellebuyck could get healthy, which is what’s happening — he’s expected back soon. The rest of those holes may be trickier.
Why they’ll make it anyway: If Hellebuyck gets back at his normal Vezina-worthy level and the new lines click, they don’t have a ton of ground to make up. That makes this a reasonably easy pick to make.
The Utah Mammoth started strong but have fallen off in a tough Central Division. (Rob Gray / Imagn Images)
7. Utah Mammoth
The season so far: Remember when they were rolling over the league? They were 8-2-0 in late October, but seven regulation losses in their last nine dropped them below .500.
What’s gone wrong: Everyone kind of cooled off at the same time, from the goalies on out, and the power play is awful. And now Logan Cooley is out.
How they could fix it: Goaltending and special teams tend to regress, so while there’s no guarantee they’ll become strengths, they should get at least a bit better. But the main argument is that the Mammoth have shown us they can look like a playoff team, both in their hot start and more recently when they went into Anaheim and stomped the Ducks.
Why they’ll make it anyway: They’ve actually been holding down a wild-card spot this week in terms of total points, although that was thanks to games in hand. The point is they’re not that far out of the race as it stands, and given how some of the teams around them are overachieving, they may only need to beat out the Jets to get that final spot.
6. St. Louis Blues
The season so far: A 3-2-0 start gave way to a seven-game losing streak, and they’ve been chasing the pack ever since.
What’s gone wrong: The goaltending. I mean, not just the goaltending, because it’s never just one thing, and the Blues have struggled offensively too. But their goaltending, which you figured would be a strength or at least not an area of concern, has pretty much been the league’s very worst.
How they could fix it: Stopping a puck would be a good start. And that’s not terrible news, because it’s not like Jordan Binnington doesn’t have a track record of doing that, so a second-half turnaround hardly feels impossible. Mix in Jordan Kyrou being more productive when he gets back, and Pavel Buchnevich shooting over 10 percent as he has in every other year of his career besides this one, and Jim Montgomery working his magic and … well, you never know.
Also, finding a 1980s novelty pop hit to rally around couldn’t hurt.
Why they’ll make it anyway: You’re counting them out? Don’t make me tap the sign banner.
5. Buffalo Sabres
The season so far: They started 0-3-0, and apart from briefly getting past fake .500 in early November, have been underwater pretty much the whole way.
What’s gone wrong: They’re the Sabres, so you know the drill. The goaltending hasn’t been great, the team defense is bad, the scoring is just OK, Lindy Ruff doesn’t have a ton of answers and Kevyn Adams hasn’t made any moves. Also, Josh Norris got hurt, again.
How they could fix it: Norris is back, so that helps. Colten Ellis has shown some flashes at 25, and having a young goalie go supernova is always the surest way to make a surprise comeback. (Just ask those 2018-19 Blues.) If you squint hard enough, there’s enough talent here to make a push. They’d just need almost everyone to hit their stride at the same time, which hasn’t happened in Buffalo since … when, like 2006?
Why they’ll make it anyway: I mean, have you seen the East? Nothing makes sense, nobody is good and the hockey gods take the whole thing and shake it like a snow globe every few days. You write about how the Senators are the only good Canadian team, and a few days later, they’re making a push for dead last. The Leafs were done, but now they’re not. The Habs were awesome, but now they’re not. The Lightning were done, the Devils were contenders, the Capitals were meh and the Red Wings are a hockey superposition that is somehow really good and really bad at the same time, all the time. As bad as they’ve been, the Sabres are two good weeks from the wild-card, and the idea of them making the playoffs would only be about the 43rd weirdest thing about this conference.
Josh Norris’ return could help the Sabres spark a run up the standings in a very tight Eastern Conference. (Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
4. San Jose Sharks
The season so far: Written off before the season even began, the Sharks played to type by losing their first six. But they won 10 of their next 15, joining the Hawks and Ducks in making this the season of the successful rebuild. Unfortunately, they’ve cooled off since, dropping to .500 this week.
What’s gone wrong: It’s tempting to say nothing really has, and this is just a mediocre-at-best team that had a nice hot streak and is now playing closer to its true level. But when things were good, this was a team that was largely being carried by two young players: Macklin Celebrini and Yaroslav Askarov. Celebrini hasn’t slowed down much, but Askarov has had some rough outings recently.
How they could fix it: Mike Grier has more than enough future assets to work with if he wanted to make a trade or two to bring in reinforcements. He might argue it’s not that time quite yet, and he’d probably be right. But in a wide-open Pacific Division, you wonder how long the Sharks have to stay close before their GM starts thinking about rewarding them.
Why they’ll make it anyway: Because somebody has to in the top-heavy West, so it might as well be the team that’s too young to realize they’re not supposed to be here.
3. Nashville Predators
The season so far: They started 2-0-1. Then everything got worse.
What’s gone wrong: This was a 68-point team last year, so they’re actually a little bit better this year. But the plan was to be a lot better, and it just hasn’t happened. At this point, it’s pretty clear the big UFA offseason of 2024 was a bust. More concerning, Juuse Saros is putting up the same sort of pedestrian numbers he had last year, which is not great news given he’s just starting an eight-year extension.
How they could fix it: They could start by trading Saros to Edmonton. No? You’re no fun.
But with minimal help coming from the prospect pipeline, this probably is a situation GM Barry Trotz would have to trade his way out of. And if anything, he should be going the other way and sending veterans out in exchange for youth. But what if he does, and that opens up some slots higher up the lineup, and some youngsters suddenly start to click, and suddenly a team that’s been playing under the crushing pressure of expectations from that UFA binge realizes nobody expects anything of them anymore and starts winning? Weirder things have happened.
Why they’ll make it anyway: We’ve seen this team get hot before, like the infamous U2 concert win streak back in 2024.
There’s also a scenario that isn’t as fun to contemplate but has to be mentioned: a coaching change. Trotz keeps insisting Andrew Brunette is safe, but every GM has a breaking point, even a former coach. It’s not uncommon for new coaches to get at least a temporary bounce when they arrive, so maybe that could snap the Predators out of this two-season trance.
The Flames have an almost insurmountable hill to climb if they want to make the playoffs. (Leah Hennel / Getty Images)
2. Calgary Flames
The season so far: Disaster from the very start, with an overtime victory immediately followed by eight losses. They’ve been a little better lately, but it’s too late.
What’s gone wrong: Lots. Aside from Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson, just about everyone is underperforming. That’s especially true for Dustin Wolf, who was amazing as a rookie but had a tough start.
How they could fix it: Wolf playing better helps, and he’s already been doing that over the last few weeks. Beyond that, this was a 96-point team last year, so maybe they just need to get back to that level. Or they could read the writing on the wall and start trading guys like Kadri and Andersson, which would probably hurt in the short term, but you never quite know. Either way, this is another scenario where oddsmakers think a coaching change could be in play, too.
Why they’ll make it anyway: They won’t, according to Dom’s model, which has them at a league-low 3 percent chance. And sure, it feels like it could take a miracle. But would Wolf getting red-hot while an influx of youth re-energizes the team and its fan base really be a miracle, or just a rare-but-still-possible scenario that isn’t all that more unlikely than the miserable start that got them here?
1. Vancouver Canucks
The season so far: They were decent for about two weeks, starting the season 4-2-0. It’s been downhill ever since, though, and they currently have the worst record in hockey based on points percentage.
What’s gone wrong: Pretty much everything. Thatcher Demko’s been hurt, Kevin Lankinen has struggled, Elias Pettersson has been just OK (and is now hurt), Evander Kane hasn’t helped, and Quinn Hughes missed time and is now the subject of a full-on rumor frenzy about a trade the Canucks will probably mess up.
How they could fix it: I’m not sure they should, since there’s a strong case that the focus should be on the draft lottery.
Why they’ll make it anyway: Look, this is going to be a long shot. A ton of things will have to go right in Vancouver, including good health and plenty of hot streaks. But beyond that, never underestimate the power of a “nobody believes in us” story. And to be clear, nobody believes in this team. They’re terrible. And they know this, because they play in a rabid market that won’t let them forget it.
There are three ways to respond to that sort of environment. The first, and most common, is to do your best to block it all out and just keep trudging along. The second is to quit and watch the season go from bad to worse. And the third is to rally around all the criticism, use it as fuel and stick it to all the haters with a rally nobody sees coming.
In Vancouver, that would start with a healthy Pettersson finally getting back to being the 100-point player he was before J.T. Miller somehow ruined him. Conor Garland could go from trade bait to game-changer, while Demko gets back on the ice and looks like the guy who was a Vezina runner-up in 2024. The Canucks push up the standings in a Pacific that’s ripe for the picking, and it all ends with a playoff berth on the season’s final night, after which Hughes grabs a microphone and does the Jordan Belfort speech.
It could happen. Will it? No. But could it? Hey, it has to happen to somebody.