Columbus Blue Jackets getting reinforcements vs New York Islanders
Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson will return to the Blue Jackets’ lineup Monday against the Islanders hoping to end a six-game skid
A six-game winless skid and losses in eight of their past nine games have dropped the Blue Jackets into tough spot going into their final 13 games.
Their odds of qualifying for a playoff spot have plummeted since March 1, when an exciting 5-3 outdoor victory over the Detroit Red Wings in front of 94,751 in attendance at Ohio Stadium gave them control of the first wild-card spot in the NHL’s Eastern Conference.
After falling for the sixth straight time in a 6-3 loss Friday to the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena, the Jackets have won only once since winning the NHL Stadium Series matchup. The final three-plus weeks starts Monday against the New York Islanders in Elmont, New York, where veterans Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson will return to the lineup after long-term injuries.
They’ll help Blue Jackets (31-29-9, 71 points) match up against one of three teams standing between them and the East’s final playoff spot. The Islanders (32-28-9, 73 points) have a two-point cushion over Columbus with the same number of games left to play, as both chase the Montreal Canadiens (33-27-9, 75 points) for what’s currently the conference’s only viable wild-card spot left.
It’s a tightly packed race that includes the New York Rangers (34-31-6) the closest to catching Montreal despite the Canadiens, Islanders and Blue Jackets all having two more games left to play.
Columbus Blue Jackets‘ odds of qualifying for the playoffs drop again
The Athletic used a predictive stat-based model in October to project the Blue Jackets with a 0.3% chance of qualifying for the playoffs and finishing with 69 points — 68.6 to be exact.
Going into Monday’s game, they’ve already surpassed it at 71 points. The Jackets remain in the playoff hunt.
That’s the bright side. Those in the business of forecasting NHL games and generating better odds, who already didn’t put much faith in the Blue Jackets, have more pessimistic take. DraftKings and BetMGM list the Jackets’ odds of qualifying for the postseason at +600 to make it and -900 to miss, while FanDuel puts the odds at +680 to make it and -1400 to miss.
Adding a point with a 1-0 overtime loss Thursday to the Florida Panthers helped their cause, according to MoneyPuck, but not much. MoneyPuck uses percentages, giving the Blue Jackets a 6.3% chance of qualifying for the playoffs that slightly increased from 5.7% a week ago. They also have a 4.5% chance of earning the Eastern Conference’s second wild-card spot, down from 4.6% last week, while their chance of landing the first wild-card has increased from 0.5% last Tuesday to 0.6% Monday.
The Blue Jackets’ chances of finishing third in the Metropolitan Division also increased marginally from 0.5% a week ago to 1.1% starting this week.
How does the NHL determine its opening playoff field?
Conference standings: The top eight teams in the NHL’s Eastern and Western conferences earn playoff spots. Starting this week off with a tough road matchup against the Islanders, the Blue Jackets are likely vying for the second wild-card spot in the East.
Playoff cutoff: The cutoff mark Monday is 75 points for the Canadiens, who currently control the East’s second wild card with the same number of games remaining (13) as Columbus. The Blue Jackets are 11th in the conference standings at 71 points, but the Islanders, Rangers and Canadiens all hold standings tiebreakers over them in regulation wins. Columbus is also being pursued by the Detroit Red Wings (70 points), Boston Bruins (69 points) and Penguins (69 points).
Columbus Blue Jackets playoff outlook
Remaining points possible: The Blue Jackets can earn up to 26 more points in their remaining 13 games. Using their current .514 points percentage through 69 games, their season total would climb to 84 at the end of the NHL’s 82-game season.Â
That’s almost certainly not enough to earn a playoff spot despite the East’s logjam of teams chasing the second wild card. The Jackets probably need 90-plus points to make it, so igniting a hot streak this week is critical.
Here is how the Columbus Blue Jackets have fared recently
Last 10 Games: The Blue Jackets are 2-7-1 in their last 10 games, including regulation losses in five of their past six games and four shutout defeats.
Notable wins/losses: Winning four straight games after the NHL’s pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February was a high point that included the Jackets’ exciting 5-3 victory over the Red Wings at Ohio Stadium.Â
The excitement, however, was doused with consecutive losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers to open a four-game road trip that followed. They’ve since dropped six in a row since routing the Rangers, 7-3, on March 9 at Madison Square Garden.
Columbus Blue Jackets upcoming schedule
Here are the Blue Jackets’ remaining games in March with start time and TV/radio broadcast information:Â Â Â
Monday, March 24 — At New York Islanders (29-28-7), 7:30 p.m./97.1 FM The Fan Friday, March 28 — Vancouver Canucks (29-24-11), 7 p.m. FanDuel Sports Network/97.1 FM The Fan Saturday, March 29 — At Ottawa Senators (34-25-5), 7 p.m. FanDuel Sports Network/97.1 FM The FanColumbus Blue Jackets home/road splits
The Blue Jackets continue to struggle on the road. Their season splits between home and road games are striking, and they’ve also dropped four in a row on home ice:Â
Home Record: 20-9-5 (45 points)Â
Away Record: 11-20-4 (26 points)
Summary: Teams that make the playoffs tend to break even on the road while making hay at home. The Blue Jackets had the home success part down before their current skid, but still haven’t shaken their season-long road struggles.
Columbus Blue Jackets key players
The top scoring leaders for the Blue Jackets are:
D Zach Werenski — 20 goals, 49 assists, 69 points RW Kirill Marchenko — 25 goals, 37 assists, 62 points F Kent Johnson — 22 goals, 24 assists, 46 points C Adam Fantilli — 21 goals, 21 assists, 42 points LW Dmitri Voronkov — 20 goals, 22 assists, 42 pointsÂ
Breakdown: These five players are critical to the Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes, but Monahan’s return Monday against the Islanders could provide a big offensive boost. The Jackets are still missing center Cole Sillinger, who’s been out since injuring a shoulder Feb. 28 in Detroit.
Here’s a look at the Blue Jackets’ top two goalies:Â
No. 1 starter — Elvis Merzlikins is 22-19-5 with a 3.04 goals against average (GAA), .896 save percentage (SV%) and one shutout.Â
Backup — Danill Tarasov is 7-8-2 with a 3.51 GAA, .882 SV% and one shutout.
Breakdown: After struggling with consistency, Merzlikins has provided solid goaltending for an extended stretch. He was the main reason the Blue Jackets took a game last Thursday against the Panthers to overtime with a 0-0 score before taking an OT loss, and Merzlikins wasn’t the issue in a 6-3 loss Friday in Pittsburgh. Tarasov has also rebounded from a slump in the season’s first half to provide a dependable backup option.
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