The Winnipeg Jets and the Dallas Stars meet in Game 6 of a Western Conference semifinals series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Saturday at American Airlines Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Jets vs. Stars odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Playoff series: Stars lead 3-2

We had a road team stave off elimination in Game 6 Friday in the Toronto-Florida series, forcing a Game 7 back in Canada Sunday. Will this series follow suit with the Jets forcing a decisive Game 7 north of the border Monday?

The Jets fell into a 3-1 series hole after Game 4, but rode G Connor Hellebuyck to a 4-0 shutout Thursday to force this series back to the Metroplex for Game 6. Winnipeg cashed as a -127 road favorite as the Under (5.5) hit in Game 5. Hellebuyck has been money at home, recording consecutive shutouts at Canada Life Centre. However, he has been terrible on the road, both in this series, in these playoffs, and in recent seasons, too.

Hellebuyck is a dismal 0-5-0 with a 5.84 GAA and .793 SV% in 5 playoff road this postseason. He was pulled in all 3 outings in St. Louis of Winnipeg’s 7-game, first-round series victory. It’s been a recurring theme as he is just 1-9-0 with a 4.98 GAA and .838 SV% across the past 3 postseasons on the road. Yuck.

On the flip side, Stars G Jake Oettinger has been money, turning aside 31 shots in each of the past 2 games vs. 34 shots in Game 5 and 32 shots in Game 4. In these playoffs, the Lakeville, Minnesota native is 7-5-0 with a 2.60 GAA and .916 SV% across 12 starts, and he has won 5 straight starts at home since losing in Game 1 of the Colorado first-round series at AAC.

In Game 5, Jets LW Nikolaj Ehlers scored 2 third-period goals, 1 on a power play goal for a 2-0 lead 2:20 into the period and an empty-netter with 45 seconds left. C Mark Scheifele broke a scoreless with a goal 6:17 into the second — he also assisted on Ehlers’ first goal, while C Kyle Connor collected a pair of helpers.

The last time the Stars were on home ice (Tuesday’s Game 4), 33-year-old Finnish C Mikael Granlund stole the show with a hat trick, providing all of the offense in a 3-1 victory. Dallas was a -153 favorite and the Under (6) cashed.

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Jets at Stars odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Jets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Stars -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Jets +1.5 (-220) | Stars -1.5 (+180)Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Jets at Stars projected goalies

Connor Hellebuyck (6-6-0, 3.18 GAA, .863 SV%, 2 SO – postseason) vs. Jake Oettinger (7-5-0, 2.60 GAA, .916 SV%, 0 SO – postseason)

Hellebuyck has been Jekyll and Hyde in these playoffs, looking amazing at home, especially in this series, and just absolutely horrendous on the road. He is coming off a shutout at home in Game 5, but he also allowed a hat trick in Texas in the most recent trip. Which Connor Hellebuyck is going to show up for the Jets Saturday?

Oettinger might not have the shutouts to his credit in these playoffs, but he has been far more consistent, especially on home ice. He is working on 5 straight starts since losing Game 1 on home ice against the Avalanche, and he has been yanked just once, in a lopsided Game 4 at Colorado.

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Jets at Stars picks and predictionsPrediction

Stars 3, Jets 2

It’s rather surprising the STARS (-145) aren’t favored by more, but that’s the overall body of work by the Jets (+120) likely playing a factor. Winnipeg is the No. 1 overall seed in the NHL, but the Presidents’ Trophy winners have taken the circuitous route in these playoffs — going the distance in 7 games with St. Louis and trailing 3-2 in this series vs. Dallas.

It all comes down to goaltending in the regular season, but even more so in the playoffs. Hellebuyck just cannot be trusted on the road for the Jets, and the sample size extends past just these first 2 series, but for several years.

The Jets +1.5 (-220) are a little too expensive if you’d like some insurance. You would need to risk 2.2 times the potential return, and that’s too much. Backing underdogs on the puck line is always risky business as a late 1-goal lead can turn into a betting loss thanks to an empty-net goal. Rarely is it a good idea to back the ‘dog catching the goal and a half.

PASS.

UNDER 5.5 (-110) is the way to go in this elimination game.

We have 2 top-tier goaltenders going with Hellebuyck and the Jets desperate to extend their season. While Hellebuyck has been awful on the road in these playoffs, expect the Stars to get his best with the season on the line.

The Jets aren’t likely to find many open space past Oettinger, either. Look for defense, backchecking and physicality to rule in Game 6.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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