With 36 games in the books and the holiday break in the rearview, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in no man’s land: 23rd overall in the NHL and 15th in the Eastern Conference. The three-day league pause offered a chance to reflect, but now comes the reset for the frantic sprint to the Olympic Break.

The next 21 games are arguably the most critical stretch of hockey this franchise has played in years. By the time the schedule resumes on February 25th, the die will likely be cast. We will know if management is pivoting to sell off assets for a lottery pick, or if GM Brad Treliving is making a desperate attempt to save his job by forcing a playoff push.

Currently, the Leafs sit just five points out of the final Wild Card spot in the East. However, the math is ugly: they have seven teams to leapfrog to secure that berth. Tuesday’s 6-3 win over the Penguins was a step forward, but it makes the out-of-town scoreboard that much more vital.

As hoped, the Buffalo Sabres did us a favor by beating the Senators in overtime (the dreaded three-point game actually helps the tank narrative), while the Predators upset the Wild and the Kraken handled the Kings. Unfortunately, losses by the Blackhawks and Flames dropped them another two points behind Toronto, hurting our draft lottery odds.

Tonight features a jam-packed schedule with massive implications for the bottom of the standings. Here is your guide to the games that matter.

Leafs (37P) vs. Sens (41P)

Ideal Result: Leafs win in regulation.

Tank Impact: I know, I know. Logic dictates that the best-case scenario for the tank is a regulation loss. But even for the good of the franchise, I simply cannot cheer for the Senators to win. We can drop points on another night, tonight, we beat Ottawa.

Sabres (40P) vs. Bruins (41P)

Ideal Result: Sabres win in OT/SO.

Tank Impact: If there was ever a night the Leafs needed a three-point game from a rival, it’s tonight. With the Leafs chasing a win against Ottawa, we need the teams around us to keep collecting points to maintain the tight pack.

Jets (33P) vs. Wild (50P)

Ideal Result: Jets secure a point.

Tank Impact: Winnipeg is undeniably one of the worst teams in the league this year. With the Wild coming off a loss to Nashville, the best we can realistically hope for is the Jets scraping a single point out of this matchup.

Blackhawks (32P) vs. Stars (57P)

Ideal Result: Blackhawks secure a point.

Tank Impact: Currently in Year 6 of their rebuild, Chicago once again finds themselves dead last in the NHL. Asking them to take down Dallas without Connor Bedard is a tall task. Ideally, they drag this to overtime, but I’m not banking on it.

Predators (36P) vs. Blues (36P)

Ideal Result: 3-point game.

Tank Impact: This is a perfect scenario for the tank. Regardless of who wins, we need this to go to overtime so both teams pick up points and keep pace with Toronto in the standings.

Flames (34P) vs. Oilers (44P)

Ideal Result: Calgary wins.

Tank Impact: The Flames fell short against Edmonton before the break. A win tonight in the Battle of Alberta could provide the spark Calgary needs to start winning games and move ahead of the Leafs.

Canucks (33P) vs. Sharks (37P)

Ideal Result: Canucks win in OT/SO.

Tank Impact: A win from either team helps the Leafs’ tank efforts here. However, an extra-time victory for Vancouver is the gold standard, it closes the gap at the bottom and widens the distance from the Leafs regardless of the outcome in Toronto.

With so much on the line tonight, the standings could look a lot different by tomorrow morning.