By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Max Bultman and The Athletic NHL Staff 

How much could have changed in a week?

Well, at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, the answer is a lot.

Our pre-tournament pick to win Group A in our World Juniors predictions, the United States, finished behind Sweden. One of our picks for the top defender, Cole Hutson, suffered an injury that changed the outlook.

What else changed? Before the tournament’s quarterfinals, The Athletic polled 14 NHL staffers on Jan. 1, 2026, on the same set of questions we asked pre-tournament, plus their picks for the quarterfinal matchups and a potential Canada vs. USA clash in the semifinals or final. All those polled answered each question in the staff team picks portion of the survey.

Here’s how our staff’s expectations for the tournament have already evolved, with expert analysis, critique and player picks from prospect experts Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman.

Wheeler: This is a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal, which came down to the last minute of the game, so don’t fully count the Latvians out!

Bultman: The Swedes have been impressive so far, and I wouldn’t pick against them in any game the rest of the way as of now, but as any Canadian can tell you, do not overlook Latvia.

Bultman: Switzerland closed out pool play with a nice win over Slovakia, and pushed USA early in the tournament as well. The Czechs are deserved favorites, but an upset here by Switzerland isn’t a zero percent proposition, though it would probably require a big game in goal from either Christian Kirsch or Elijah Neuenschwander.

Wheeler: The Swiss are owed better odds than zero here. They won two games in the preliminary round and lost to USA and Sweden by one and two goals respectively, finishing group play with a positive goal differential. They’ve got a solid blue line, good goaltending and a couple of forwards.

Wheeler: This is a coin toss. Cole Hutson’s readiness following his full participation in practice on New Year’s Day could be the determining factor.

Bultman: I took Finland here. It’s just tough for me to pick USA to make a major run, between their injuries (down Hutson and Max Plante) and some unconvincing wins so far.

Wheeler: The Slovaks have had a respectable tournament. It probably takes Canadian penalty and goaltending trouble for them to win, but that’s been known to happen at this tournament over the years.

Bultman: I expect Canada’s talent to eventually overwhelm Slovakia, but it’s worth noting Slovakia hasn’t lost by more than a goal at this event. They won’t go down easy.

Bultman: Again, tough to pick USA right now. Defensively, in particular, it’s hard to see them stopping Canada, especially without a clear answer in net.

Wheeler: Don’t count out the Czechs or the Finns, but Canada and Sweden remain the favorites. I’d be surprised at this point if the Americans three-peated.

Bultman: Canada’s goaltending has been a concern thus far, and I think Sweden’s depth and heaviness, with Anton Frondell, Eddie Genborg and Jack Berglund, could give them some problems in what would be a fantastic gold medal game.

Bultman: Our staff is overwhelmingly projecting a Canada-Sweden game, which feels correct to me, but this knockout round does feel ripe for an upset or two. It seems like a pretty open field coming out of pool play.

Wheeler: I think we’re most likely headed to a Canada-Sweden final as well, but this tournament does feel more wide-open than the results of our poll suggest.

Wheeler: There are the Czechs! That would be four straight years with a medal for them.

Bultman: The Czechs are a deserved favorite here, but I picked Finland. They took Czechia to overtime the last time they played, and found more offense than I expected to see from them coming in. I like them to pull out the win in a rematch for bronze.

Wheeler: I think these are about the odds. The Germans should be favored.

Bultman: Since scoring three goals against USA in their opener, Germany has just two total across its last three games.

Pronman: I can’t believe I picked Cole Eiserman in hindsight. He’s been awful.

Wheeler: Our Eiserman picks certainly didn’t age well! The NTDP’s all-time goals record holder has just one goal and one assist through four games and isn’t playing in a prominent role for the Americans.

Bultman: Michael Hage is tied with teammates Zayne Parekh and Gavin McKenna so far, and I do think it will be a Canadian taking the scoring crown at the end of this. But as the games get tighter in the elimination stage, I think Hage has the best chance to keep up the scoring pace — though Parekh and McKenna could certainly pile up numbers on the power play.

MICHAEL HAGE IS THE OVERTIME HERO FOR CANADA! WHAT A GOAL! 🤯 #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/hEknZN1q92

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 28, 2025

Bultman: Hage has had a fantastic tournament, and I like him to be the tournament’s leading scorer. But after pool play, I like the Swedes to take gold in St. Paul, and Frondell has at least had stretches of dominance so far that I think will become more frequent in the most important games. His power-play one-timer has made him one of the top scorers so far, but it’s his overall impact that I expect to shine through in the knockout round.

Pronman: The MVP race is wide open at this stage. Hage seems the likeliest candidate as the center on the top line of the tournament, but I could see it going to a number of different players. Frankly the most impressive player overall may be a defenseman in Parekh.

Wheeler: No forward has taken over this year’s tournament, but Hage has created offense the most consistently and has been noticeable in all four of Canada’s games.

Goalie Love Harenstam has been solid for Sweden. (David Berding / Getty Images)

Wheeler: Carter George and Petteri Rimpinen were the two best goalies at last year’s World Juniors for me, and both entered this year’s tournaments as favorites for the award. But neither has played well, leaving the door open for Love Harenstam, who hasn’t stolen the show for Sweden but has been solid.

Bultman: I don’t know if any of the tournament’s top teams have gotten truly stellar goaltending so far, but Harenstam’s .920 and 3-0 record are hard to argue with.

Wheeler: I think this is a three-horse race between Parekh and Czechia’s Adam Jiricek and Tomas Galvas, but Parekh’s offensive moments and production will probably win out and the two Czechs risk splitting votes.

Bultman: Hutson’s injury certainly changed the outlook, but Parekh’s also tied for the overall tournament scoring lead on one of the group winners. He’s the favorite right now.

Bultman: Again, I went with Frondell because I think Sweden wins the tournament, but there’s still some projecting required here to pick him. Hage would have my vote if based solely on what’s happened so far.

Wheeler: Viggo Bjorck’s consistent impact across all four games, and that he’s doing it as a center, gave him the edge for me over McKenna and Ivar Stenberg for me. Slovakia’s Tomas Chrenko and USA’s Chase Reid have had nice tournaments, too.

Viggo Bjorck (2026) can play, no matter what anyone tells you. pic.twitter.com/HpZSzjmKjB

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) December 26, 2025

Bultman: Bjorck in particular has really caught my eye and probably helped his draft stock over the last week, but I have a hard time overlooking McKenna sitting tied atop the overall scoring board here.

Pronman: Stenberg started off quietly in the tournament, but he was excellent versus the USA on New Year’s Eve, and I expect him to have a big medal round.