Sorry to break the news, but today’s matchup is a pair of divisional basement dwellers. This Saturday edition of NHL Predictions, presented by us here at Last Word On Hockey is between the Winnipeg Jets and the Ottawa Senators. Who starts their proverbial climb to the top, of first, the wild card races, tonight?

NHL Predictions Jets and Senators

Season Series: Winnipeg has their only chance at revenge after Ottawa won in mid-December 3-2 in overtime.

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST), 6:00 p.m. Central

How to Watch: Sportsnet One, TVAS

Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON

This game features its share of Olympic representatives, as well as snubs, too. The list of Sens who will represent their respective countries at 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics is impressive. The names include Brady Tkachuk (USA), Jake Sanderson (USA), Nikolas Matinpalo (FIN), and Tim Stutzle (GER). Also, Lars Eller and Mads Sogaard will likely lace them up for Denmark, but that’s not confirmed, yet. Meanwhile, representing Winnipeg is Kyle Connor (USA), Josh Morrissey (CAN), Connor Hellebuyck (USA), and Nino Niederreiter (SUI). Moreover, there are others, but the main snub from either side, is Linus Ullmark (SWE) and Mark Scheifele (CAN).

The Winnipeg Jets Still Looking to Takeoff in 2025-26

As we touched on above, one story from Winnipeg’s perspective is that of Mark Scheifele. Scheifele (38), and his winger, Kyle Connor (34), are right there with the league leaders in even strength points on the season. Yes, there may be some holes in Scheifele’s game, but he has worked very hard on them. He’s also very consistent offensively, plays centre, and can bring a physical aspect when called upon. He would’ve fit right in with Team Canada, at least we think so. The flip side of the coin, is that now he has a bee in his bonnet. He now has a chip on his shoulder, as if he didn’t have one already. Will he be able to use his angst for good, or will it turn into destruction? But if Scheifele (and Connor) have been doing well, why have the Jets struggled?

After them, and lump Gabriel Vilardi and Team Canada selection Josh Morrissey in there, too, there is a drop-off. Jonathan Toews has not been able to regain his form, or anywhere near it, so far this season. Likewise, Cole Perfetti was expecting a strong performance in 2025-26. In contrast, he only has eight points (just two goals) in 25 games. Even captain Adam Lowry is sitting with just seven points on the campaign. Maybe they are missing Nikolaj Ehlers providing that secondary punch, but something just seems off.

It doesn’t help their all-world goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck has (only) played in 22 of the team’s 41 games. He has been strong, as he sports a 2.51 goals-against average, compared to the club’s total 2.94 GAA. However, he only has a 9-10-3 record to show for it.

In any sense, Winnipeg needs their collective group to find that extra gear, or it will soon become a lost year. Now, big picture, it probably is more of an outlier season. But, the fact of the matter remains, they could probably use a replacement for Ehlers’ scoring touch. They thought they had the pieces internally, and maybe they still do. But if they don’t find it soon, or general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff pulls the trigger on a deal, the playoffs will be out of reach.

The Story from the Senators

Tim Stutzle comes into this one riding a 11-game point streak. It is actually the second longest of his career (last year he had a 14 gamer). Furthermore, he has really developed into a complete player. He can kill penalties, if need be for head coach Travis Green. Also, he’s added consistency to his faceoff ability. His career rate is only 45 percent, but this year specifically, he’s over 55 percent. His maturity and growth has really synched up with this core group in Ottawa.

With the rise of someone like Stutzle, people may question why Ottawa hasn’t been able to find its groove this season. Even though they haven’t had a lot of them, injuries have been a significant factor. Case in point, when Thomas Chabot was out, the defensive depth was exposed. They had right-shot guys filling in on the left side. Additionally, being without Shane Pinto really took away one of the Sens’ lineup strengths. Having three key centres, in Dylan Cozens, with Stutzle and Pinto is a point of advantage for Ottawa in the matchup game. We won’t even mention missing captain Brady Tkachuk for an extended period. The Sens remain without Lars Eller, but he should be back soon.

However, that just goes to show the depth of the collective group. Guys like Nick Cousins, David Perron, Claude Giroux, and Michael Amadio, aren’t just along for the ride. They are playing for something more, they want to push this group to the next level.

Meanwhile, in net, we expect it to be Leevi Merilainen. And maybe it had something to do with why is was left off Team Sweden, but Linus Ullmark is still away from the club. The Sens do have a solid option behind Merilainen, if you go based on his non-NHL resume. Hunter Shepard has won two AHL Calder Cup titles, and even an NCAA Frozen Four championship. Merilainen and Shepard will have to hold the fort for the time being. However, we do think it’s Merilainen’s net for the foreseeable future.

This is a good time for our disclaimer to please check social media before locking in your daily fantasy roster.

NHL Predictions

Ottawa (43 points) are an interesting bunch. On the one hand, they are currently dead last in the NHL’s Atlantic Division. But, on the right side of things, they do enter play on Saturday morning just nine points out of first in the division. They remain confident as a group, despite their tough standing. Winnipeg (34 points), is likewise, last in the Central Division. Now, they are far removed from the front-runners in the division. Conversely, sitting with 34 points, they aren’t too far out of the Western Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Wild Card position (seven points as of Saturday morning). Both teams full expect to make the playoffs. When will panic begin to set in? Who knows, b’y. But we do know, both will be motivated. Except a hard-fought, Canadian rivalry game. We are really only taking the home side, because hey, we can, right?

Prediction: Jets 2 – Senators 3

Prop Bets

Okay, we are taking Mark Scheifele to score in this one. He will be motivated after being left off the Canadian Olympic team. For Ottawa, after a hot start to the season, and then a cool down, followed by an injury, we think Shane Pinto finds twine.

Main Photo Credit: James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images

Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.