Heading into the season, one player who many Calgary Flames fans were excited to view was Connor Zary. Zary had made great progress in the AHL in 2022–23 and was full-time in the NHL by 2023–24. Although the possible progression was enticing to think about, Zary unfortunately dealt with a fair share of injuries throughout the year.

As the Flames are into offseason mode, the expiring restricted free agents are a topic to be of focus. The Flames now have three roster RFAs left to sign in Morgan Frost, Kevin Bahl, and of course Zary himself. We have already covered what the other two’s contracts might look like, so let’s take a look at Zary.

A short look at Zary

Zary joined the Flames organization when he was drafted 24th overall during the 2020 NHL draft. His great year in the WHL had many hopeful for his potential. He would head back to junior for one more year before playing professional hockey with the Flames’ AHL team.

As mentioned already, Zary became a full-time NHL player recently in 2023–24. Throughout his two NHL seasons, he has amassed 27 goals and 61 points in 117 games. He’s been praised for the natural offensive skill that he presents as well as his two-way game.

Next season will be a big year for Zary. It’ll be a challenge for him to play his first full 82-game season with the Flames. He’ll need to see more production as he didn’t take the step that was hoped for this prior season. With his injuries, it is a little difficult to project his career trajectory as of right now. Nonetheless, Zary is still looking like one of the hopeful pieces in the Flames future.

Comparable #1: Shane Pinto

Contract: 2 years, $3.75M AAV, 4.26% of the cap

Shane Pinto is a near perfect comparable for Zary at the point he’s at in his career. At the time of signing, Pinto and Zary will have played almost the exact same amount of games and at the age of 23. Both have missed some time, for very different reasons however. Pinto signed his deal with 62 points in his career playing a middle-six role similar to what Zary does for the Flames.

Their play-styles aren’t equivalent with Pinto being more of a goal scorer and Zary being more of a playmaker. However, both have filled out a resembling resume at the points in their careers. Good two-way results with solid production, if a bridge deal is the route for Zary, I would not be surprised if it looked similar to this.

Comparable #2: Jake Neighbours

Contract: 2 years, $3.75M AAV, 3.93% of the cap

Funnily enough, this contract is the exact same as the last one. The extension Jake Neighbours signed at the start of the year could be approximate to what Zary will sign. At the time of signing the deal, Neighbours had only a season and a half under his belt. Games played once again very much resembled what Zary has played so far. Neighbours inked the deal at 22 but will kick while he’s 23, just like Zary.

Zary’s production was better than Neighbours’ at the points of signing, however, Neighbours had a few more goals. Play-styles do not match, with Neighbours being a power-forward. Nonetheless, the roles they fill with mainly middle-six time but some time in bigger minutes make this comparable. Heck, the St. Louis Blues drafted Neighbours only two picks after Zary, so even their pedigrees are similar.

Comparable #3: Travis Konecny

Contract: 6 years, $5.5M AAV, 6.75% of the cap

With the tricky situation of Zary’s injuries, it is difficult to find contract comparables and I didn’t just want to cover bridge deals. Out of long term deals, Travis Konecny’s first contract is the closest to what I think Zary might fetch. When Konecny had put pen-to-paper, he had one more season of experience under his belt than Zary will. However, their production is still similar, with Konecny not fully breaking out until after signing the deal. The Flyers have always been big fans of Konecny. The Flames might view Zary in a comparable sense. They were even drafted with the same pick, five drafts apart.

Zary and Konecny received similar ice-time and spots in the lineup just like the other two players that have been covered. Konency showed a little bit more of a straight-forward development across his first three seasons, but you can’t knock Zary for getting injured. With Matt Coronato getting a long-term extension after one strong year, the Flames could be big on the idea of locking up their young players. If they go that path with Zary, I think we see a similar deal to Konecny.

What will Connor Zary’s contract look like?

Coming up with contract comparisons for Zary has proven to be a little challenging. When injury staggers a player’s development, it’s tough to narrow down what the team exactly thinks about them. Each one of the forwards we looked at had a career points per game around half a point per game just like Zary does. Their play-styles aren’t exactly comparable but the roles they’ve filled out makes up for that.

We pointed towards only three contracts this time, two being bridge deals and one being long term. The two bridge deals were identical and were given either due to some missed time or the hope that could prove more in the years. Two factors that the Flames could use in a Zary deal. The long-term deal stemmed from the faith and love that the Flyers had in their own player, something that I can also see the Flames having in Zary.

I’m a big believer in Zary and have faith that he will be an impact player in the Flames’ top-six for quite a few years. Going long-term on his next deal could end up creating a steal of a contract. However, I would also understand some hesitation with the injury and giving him a bridge-deal to let him earn himself a bigger contract.

When averaging out the AAV and years of the covered deals, we get a contract of $4.3M for three years. With rising cap, it is also important to put a focus on the percentage of cap space. Upon averaging out the percents, we are given 4.98% which is $4.75M of the $95.50M cap. For a bridge deal, I’d predict we see Zary sign $4.0M for two years. As for a long-term contract, Zary signing for $6.5M for six years would be my guess.

Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire

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