The vibes around the Columbus Blue Jackets went from very high to very low in the span of about 24 hours. They haven’t recovered since.
Flash back to last Saturday for a moment. The Blue Jackets hosted the Buffalo Sabres and their 10-game winning streak. Everything went the Blue Jackets’ way that day. They won going away ending the long winning streak. Surely, that moment would start a run back to the playoff race.
For a little bit of time Sunday, it appeared to. The Blue Jackets jumped on the Pittsburgh Penguins for an early 4-1 lead after Zach Werenski scored in the second period.
But then in a flash, everything changed. The Blue Jackets have yet to recover from it too.
The Penguins mounted a comeback yet again on the Blue Jackets’ home ice. The Penguins tied the game with 14 seconds left in a moment that turned Nationwide Arena into what felt like their second home thanks to the loud cheers of their fans.
It was only a matter of time before the Penguins completed the comeback in overtime. Thanks to a mistake on a line change, Sidney Crosby did just that.
That 5-4 overtime loss was a point in the standings to be sure. But that moment felt like much more than that for the Blue Jackets. It was a painful reminder of exactly what has plagued them this season. They once again built a multi-goal lead only to lose the game.
That now meant going on the road and finding success to get the bad taste out of their mouths. After losses of 5-2 in San Jose and 5-3 in Vegas, it’s abundantly clear the Blue Jackets have not recovered from Sunday’s loss. They now face one of the toughest back-to-backs in the NHL when they play the Colorado Avalanche Saturday afternoon and then the Utah Mammoth on Sunday evening.
It’s very possible the Blue Jackets go 0-for on this western trip. While that in itself wouldn’t eliminate them from the playoffs, it would put their chances of making it on life support.
Most public models have the Blue Jackets’ chances of making the playoffs at or around 10% or below coming into this weekend. To say that this is a critical part of the schedule is a major understatement. Their margin for error continues to dwindle with each passing loss.
It begs the question why. Why are the Blue Jackets in last place with room to spare in the Eastern Conference? It’s an especially interesting question to consider given that they are doing some things well.
The problem is that their bad and ugly far outweigh the good. It points to the team’s inability to learn from the lessons other teams are giving them. That’s what we’re going to try to focus on today.
In particular, there are three aspects that continue to doom the Blue Jackets. It has their season on the brink of destruction. Let’s talk through them and see what can be done at this point.
Blown Leads
Should the Blue Jackets fail to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it won’t be because of this tough road trip. It’ll be because of the points they’re leaving behind when they’ve held a multi-goal lead.
The Blue Jackets were up 2-0 in the first period in Vegas. Kent Johnson scored a goal. His line had a good night overall. Things were off to a good start.
This has been the familiar story all season. The Blue Jackets are one of the best teams in the NHL in the first period. Coming into Saturday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche, they’re +10 in their goal differential in the first 20 minutes. That’s top-five in the NHL. They’ve consistently showed they can start games well.
The same cannot be said for the other 40 minutes which is why the blown leads is the first aspect that needs discussed. The Blue Jackets have left nine points behind in games in which they held a multi-goal lead this season. It’s the difference between being on the playoff cut line and being in last place.
Every team goes through a stretch like this at certain points. But the Blue Jackets are going through a season-long stretch of this that they cannot shake. They know it’s an issue. Yet, they have proven they don’t have any answers for it yet.
Now the important question. Why do the Blue Jackets struggle with this aspect? Let’s acknowledge one thing here. At all three levels, management, coaches and players, they have all pointed to huge mistakes that end up in the back of their net.
The blown leads are a major reason why this season is on the verge of destruction for the Blue Jackets. (Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images)
Going back to our recent Q&A with GM Don Waddell, here’s what he had to say about the blown leads. “But I watch every goal. I watch every goal multiple times every night. We make some dumb mental mistakes.”
Here’s what head coach Dean Evason said in part postgame Thursday in Vegas. “We get it to a one-goal lead and then we give up a 2-on-1. It’s just, I don’t know if we just shut it off, shut our brains off at that point instead of doing the right things.” Evason went on to say that they made things too easy when discussing the 5-3 goal.
Zach Werenski recently said the team at times feel disconnected. He also said that their energy can dip a little later in games. “We make a mistake, kind of give them a free one. But we’re still fine. It’s still a 4-2 game going to the third. At home in front of a great crowd, we need to get our energy back. I think it’s a big reason stuff like that happens.”
Not having the energy will not only affect them physically, it could take a toll mentally too. The big mistakes are a combination of lack of execution and mental lapses.
Every team makes mistakes. But not every team can survive mistakes. The good teams are able to find a way to recover from mistakes. The Blue Jackets have shown their big mistakes end up in critical goals against.
What’s the lesson to be learned? As currently constructed, the Blue Jackets aren’t good enough to survive their big mistakes. While goaltender Jet Greaves has done everything he can to keep his team in games, even he can’t stop everything including the big mistakes.
Here’s an important question to consider too. Do the Blue Jackets have a true, elite shutdown defender on their roster? Their best defensemen are more offensive-minded defensemen. Teams have been able to come back in part due to what the team doesn’t have right now. Egor Zamula plays that kind of game but is new to the team and will play a limited role with third pair minutes.
The players you’ll see in the key moments, Werenski, Damon Severson, Denton Mateychuk, Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro, aren’t your typical shutdown defenders. Teams know that. Teams are taking advantage of that. They’re able to come back in games knowing the Blue Jackets have to usually outscore their opponents to win. Waddell admitted as much in our recent Q&A.
What’s the short-term answer to this? It’s multi-layered. The Blue Jackets need to find their offense especially later in games. They start well but fade as games go on. They need to limit their big mistakes such as that 4-2 goal against the Penguins that jump started their comeback. They need to compete in their own zone using their sticks, breaking up passes, blocking shots and disrupting as much as possible. Smarter plays and puck possession become that much more important.
The Blue Jackets also need to find a way to keep their energy longer. That one is hard given the condensed schedule. But when Werenski admits that’s a potential problem, they have to find a way to do so.
If the Blue Jackets better managed this part of their game, we’d be discussing the playoff race and not why they continue blowing leads in games. Whatever it is for each individual player, they must make a more concerted effort to positively influence the game. It’s going to take a team committed to making the blown leads stop for them to put an end to this ugly part of their game.
Need More From Top Players
Offense was one of the Blue Jackets’ strengths last season that helped them knock on the playoff door. That offense has dried up so far in 2025-26.
The Blue Jackets can generate chances. They’re fourth in the NHL and only one of five teams who average over 30 shots per game. The problem? Lack of finish. The Blue Jackets are 20th in the NHL in goals per game.
Blown leads are more apt to happen when teams can’t score enough goals. The Blue Jackets have been outscored by 25 goals this season in the final 40 minutes of regulation.
One reason for this? The players the Blue Jackets depend on for goals aren’t scoring the way they need to. Let’s look at a couple of examples.
Adam Fantilli has one goal in his last 16 games while playing as the team’s top-line center.
Cole Sillinger has five goals in 42 games this season.
Johnson scored his fourth goal of the season Thursday night in 42 games.
Sean Monahan is battling through ailments but has just six goals so far this season.
For a team that needs their offense clicking to succeed, these are some eye-opening numbers. All are more than capable of scoring. It’s now up to them to find their scoring touch as the second half of the season gets into full swing.
Werenski, Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov are each on a 30-goal pace this season. If the mentioned players above start finding their games, they can turn things around. Offensively, they have to do a better job of finishing. They’re creating chances. They now need to finish them.
Figure Out the Goaltending
Elvis Merzlikins hasn’t played a single minute or even seen the ice outside of practice or warmups since the season resumed after the Christmas break. That means Jet Greaves has played all the minutes. While he’s earned that right, he needs help.
The fact that Merzlikins hasn’t started a game tells us everything we need to know. The Blue Jackets know they need to find a way to get Merzlikins going. But they haven’t trusted him due to his recent performances.
Evason said that Greaves gives them the best chance to win. While that’s certainly been true of late, we’re seeing recently what it means when the Blue Jackets can’t turn to their other goalie. Perhaps we’ll see him soon.
Dean Evason has to figure out the goalie situation in the second half. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
However they decide to handle this, the Blue Jackets have to figure their crease out. They need to keep Greaves fresh while getting either Merzlikins or even Ivan Fedotov a chance to play.
Waddell recently told the Hockey Writers that the goaltending is something they watch hourly and even minute-by-minute. There will come a moment in which a decision will have to be made. The Blue Jackets need to get to a place where they have two goalies in which they can trust to start any given game. They’re not at that point right now. That must change.
The Blue Jackets’ season is at stake thanks to these aspects and perhaps even a few other things too. They do get seven of eight at home after the game Sunday evening in Utah. It’s not hyperbole to call that stretch their potential defining moment of the season. A 6-2-0 or better stretch could keep them within range of the wildcard.
But if the above aspects aren’t fixed in short order, it’s not going to even matter. A season that started with the hope of taking the next step is on the verge of complete destruction.
If that’s what comes to pass, it can’t be viewed any other way except as failure by everyone within the organization.
