Man, one interesting dynamic with the Ottawa Senators, is the rivalries they have developed over the years. The natural Battle of Ontario has always been an intriguing rivalry, going back to many Stanley Cup Playoff series from the late ’90s with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Teams like the Minnesota Wild and the Buffalo Sabres have been good battles. Finally, and tonight’s matchup, from the Autoroute Guy-LaFleur to Queensway, the only two NHL franchises in a city that would have French as an official language. Welcome back to NHL Predictions, an all-Canadian, Saturday edition featuring the Sens and Habs. Even if Montreal Canadien fans try to discount the lack of a historical rivalry, the geographic and cultural rivalry is undeniable. Sit back and let’s get sensational.

NHL Predictions Canadiens and Senators

Season Series: On November 1st, 2025, Montreal downed Ottawa 2-1 in overtime. Later, on December 2nd, Ottawa beat Montreal, for the second and final game in Quebec of the season series, 5-2. The two teams have met nine, make it ten now today, more times than Ottawa has ever faced any other team. So, even though the rivalry doesn’t matter as much to Hab fans, it is crucial for the Sens franchise. The record, all time between the two clubs is 83-73-5-12, in favour of Ottawa. Montreal only has scored seven more goals in all those games. More recently, the players have had some personal rivalries that needed attending to.

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch: Sportsnet East, City, TVAS

Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON

This game really is a battle for the current Atlantic Division standings. Ottawa is dead last with a somehow respectable .533 points percentage. Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings are in second place, at a .625 points percentage. So, it isn’t insurmountable, but it is precarious. Montreal is a strong team, and third in the division, just off the Wings pace at .615. The Tampa Bay Lightning have been relatively healthy, among their big guns, and have done well at proving they have something to say for class of the Atlantic.

It is official, the Sens net is a tipsy, turnstile at the 10 pm beer league stand. James Reimer has been brought in to bring a veteran presence to the club’s crease. It is possible he starts on Sunday versus the Detroit Red Wings.

For now, it seems like Leevi Merilainen gets the nod. He is a very calculated goalie. Furthermore, even though his numbers may not be there this season, he has maintained composure, a telling sign for a young backstop.

Oddly enough, even with the Habs advantage in the standings, their expected starter has very similar numbers to Merilainen. Sam Montembeault has a save percentage of .874, while Merilainen is .868. Their goals-against average is similar, too, Monty’s is 3.35, compared to Leevi’s 3.37. So, no real deciding factor from those metrics.

It is a good time for our disclaimer, to please check social media before locking in your daily fantasy lineups.

Jake Evans, Patrik Laine and Kirby Dach are in Ottawa. All wearing regular jerseys. @CanadiensMTL

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) January 16, 2026

How Did the Senators Get In This Current Predicament?

The Sens are trying their best to get back in the fight. Coming in with two wins in a row, they’re healthy and having been playing very strong all year. Unfortunately, they haven’t been padding the win column. This game is a huge swing game for them in the 2025-26 season. At five-on-five, the Sens are third in the league at 54.4% in expected goals. Offensively, they are even somewhat efficient, as the rank tenth with a 10.1 percent in shooting percentage on shots on goal. However, this is all offset by the fact they are last in the NHL in save percentage on shot on goal (.887%). Essentially, they aren’t efficient offensively, and they are allowing too many goals. Fixing this, it is easy to see how the could change the narrative.

For comparison, Montreal’s expected goal was 19th at 49.3%. In contrast, despite the lower ratio of carrying the play, they are extremely efficient. Their shot percentage is third at 11.0%.

The Sens are led by their top guns. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Fabian Zetterlund have an expected goal percentage of 69.1. That is second in the entire NHL, among lines that have played 98 minutes-or-more. If they are outscoring their opposition’s top line, it is a recipe for success. Sometimes the Sens forwards get in the habit of low, jamb plays, and forget to use the space for good, and finding the open man for one timers.

The Story for Montreal

For Montreal, they are powered by their offensive skill. Their top offensive line, is a somewhat newly formed one. Again, the same criteria as for the Sens top line, the Habs line is seventh at 65.7%. That would be the line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Alexandre Texier. As you can tell, many of the key players in this game were motivated by the prospects of playing for the respective countries at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. Suzuki made Team Canada, with 52 points in 48 games, so far. Caufield managed 22 goals and 23 assists for 45 points in 48 games. They are one-two in team scoring.

Beyond the two top guys, they have had a pair of guys hitting all their targets. The two rookies Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen are helping power their attack. Demidov is pacing the rookie with a five-point lead at 40, over Beckett Sennecke of the Anaheim Ducks. Meanwhile, Kapanen’s 16 goals lead all rookies, one more than, you guessed it, Sennecke. That’s on top of having defenceman Lane Hutson tearing it up, with eight goals and 39 assists for 47 points. This attack will keep the Sens defenders on their toes.

NHL Predictions

Ottawa is playing with a bit of passion, they need wins. Montreal will prove to be a formidable foe, but we think they ultimately fall to the home side.

Prediction: Canadiens 2 – Senators 4

Prop Bets

For anytime goal scorers, we like Kapanen to find twine. In the past four games, he has 12 shots on goal, and only one goal to show for it. If he finds an opening in the slot, we think he finishes it. For Ottawa, we have to go with Dylan Cozens. Also in the past four games, he is averaging just 14:56 of ice time. He has one goal, three points, and ten shots in that span. Look for him to capitalize on a loose puck in the slot.

Some Ottawa Senators Goaltending Gameday Notes Going into MSG

Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

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