The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers meet for Game 4 of their Stanley Cup Playoff series Monday in Sunrise, Florida. The opening faceoff at Amerant Bank Arena will be at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Panthers odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Series: Florida leads 2-1
Tampa Bay routed Florida 5-1 in Saturday’s Game 3 after losing Games 1 and 2. Five Lightning skaters found the back of the net, and C Jake Guentzel and RW Nikita Kucherov each had 3-point games for a Tampa squad that won on road ice for just the second time since April 3.
The Panthers outshot the Bolts 34-22 Saturday. Dating back to the regular season and including an April 15 loss at Tampa Bay, Florida has now allowed 5 goals in 3 of its last 5 games.
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Lightning at Panthers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Moneyline: Lightning +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Panthers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-225) | Panthers -1.5 (+185)Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Lightning at Panthers projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (regular season: 38-20-5, 2.18 GAA, .921 SV%, 6 SO) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (33-19-2, 2.44 GAA, .906 SV%, 5 SO)
Vasilevskiy has started all 3 games of the series. He owns an .890 SV% for the series. In the regular season, he registered a .932 SV% at home and a .904 mark on the road.
Bobrovsky has also played the first 3 games. He filed a 19-save shutout in Game 2, and his series SV% is .903.
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Lightning at Panthers picks and predictionsPrediction
Panthers 4, Lightning 3
Florida is 12-4 across its last 16 games against Tampa Bay (regular and postseason). In 5 of their last 7 wins against the Bolts, the Panthers — not normally a high-scoring club — have scored 4 goals or more.
Figure the Panthers as having more in the tank with respect to 5-on-5 play. Even-strength analytics peg Florida as punching under its recent production. On the power play, Florida is 17 for its last 60 (28.3%) .
The PANTHERS (-140) are the value side here.
No interest: PASS.
The Over is 2-1 in this series and 6-3-1 in the last 10 Tampa-Florida meetings. Look for some offense push-back as this series hits a third game after a tight Under. The overall series tilt leans fade lean on the Bolts defense and a bit positive on the Florida offense.
Going back a few weeks into the regular season, the Florida offense looks to be developing better chances, and some puck luck is working its numbers lower than they should be.
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 5.5 (-110).