The Pittsburgh Penguins are pivoting slightly with their goalie choices. Stuart Skinner has been tabbed to start a second consecutive game for the first time since joining the team when he takes the net in Calgary tonight after earning a 6-3 win in Seattle on Monday.
This represents an interesting change of strategy for Pittsburgh, who have been faithfully rotating goalies for the majority of the season so far, outside of a stint in November when Arturs Silovs got pulled early in two straight starts for him and was taken out of the rotation for a handful of games.
As always with choices like this, there are pros and cons involved.
One major factor in the plus side to support this decision is that Skinner has been one of the league’s best goalies since the Christmas break. Pens PR spelled it out:
Stuart Skinner has been red hot since the Christmas Break, winning five of his six starts (5-1-0). During this stretch, he has only allowed one goal in four of the six games, and ranks near the top of the league in multiple statistical categories among goaltenders:
Goaltender Leaders Since Dec. 25 (Min. 4 Games Played)
Category Rank
Wins (5) T5th
Save Percentage (.931) 4th
Goals Against (1.67) 3rd
Goals Against (10) T3rd
Over this stretch, where both Skinner and Arturs Silovs have each played six games, there’s undoubtedly a split in performance between the two.
That said, over the last three games for each, Silovs has posted a .927 save% and only allowed six total goals but taken a couple of tough luck losses and shootout performances along the way. While Skinner has been great since Christmas, it should also be pointed out that Silovs is in much better form now than the last time he got skipped in the typical rotation back in November.
There’s also the matter of game sequencing to consider as part of this decision. The Penguins play Calgary tonight, who are seventh in the Pacific division and starting to sell off pieces. Tomorrow night, the Pens are in Edmonton to meet the second place Oilers, who have hammered the Penguins to the tune of winning eight of the nine matchups since 2021, out-scoring Pittsburgh by a combined 46-18 margin along the way.
Therefore, the reasons to start Skinner tonight is rooted in logic. By any reasonable measure, he’s been playing very well and tonight’s game is more winnable on paper by many degrees than going into a house of horrors on the back-end of a b-2-b tomorrow night. There’s also a data point where Skinner played against the Oilers soon after the trade in December and gave up five goals on 22 shots in a game that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl each posted four points, so obviously the goalie holds no special advantage or edge against his former teammates.
There’s a different side of the coin, however, that presents another perspective. Skinner hasn’t played two times in three days (on one day of rest) since mid-November. He actually did so twice in a row — playing on 11/15, 11/17 and 11/19 for the Oilers. The results were not good: Skinner gave up four goals in a losing effort on 11/17 and then followed that up by allowing five goals in a losing effort on 11/19.
That type of outcome hasn’t been out of the norm for a decline in performance based on frequent usage, per ESPN here are Skinner’s splits with rest in this season and last.
These stats speak to why the extra rest granted by an even goalie rotation can really benefit Skinner. The time to reset physically and mentally has been a performance enhancer compared to when he has to carry the burden of frequent starts. Part of the reason that Skinner is playing tonight is because he’s done so well since Christmas. Yet at the same time, a part of the reason has been playing so well can just as easily be chalked up to always having three, four and sometimes five days in between starts.
Then again, this season splits show that Skinner has been virtually the same goalie whether he’s gotten one or two days rest, and since the Pens either have to play him today or tomorrow on the second day, there’s some support in going tonight against the weaker team and hoping it’s best in the big picture. The decision gives some longer-range upside, playing Skinner tonight offers the benefit in giving him an extra day off until a potential next start on Sunday to get that crucial third day of rest for the next time in the rotation.
Despite the final choice, it could be seen as a good dilemma to have in this moment. Either the Pens would have played Silovs tonight (with his .927 save% in his last three outings) or the other choice was giving Skinner a chance to continue his run of hot play. Neither option is unappealing in the short-term.
In the end, judgement calls like this might not necessarily have a right or wrong answer at the time it has to be made. There are certain benefits and potential drawbacks to weigh across not just this game but in the bigger picture. The more traditional school of thought would be to take the option that Dan Muse selected to play the better goalie on the first night of a b-2-b against the weaker opponent. The underlying and perhaps trickier catch is that past performance does not always guarantee future results in a multi-factored element of playing goalie in the NHL.
This personnel choice might not be a major turning point spelling the beginning of the end of the goalie rotation as we’ve known it, so much as it could be a reminder of the benefits of such a rotation in the first place. The feature of giving goalies extra time off can’t happen in too much of a condensed schedule, which will put Skinner to the test tonight to reverse his recent trends of performance when called upon repeatedly.