General manager Barry Trotz has only a handful of decisions regarding the Nashville Predators’ pending free agents this summer, and the most important one is with forward Luke Evangelista.
A second-round pick in 2020, Evangelista shined in his rookie season in 2023-24, scoring 16 goals and 23 assists as a 21-year-old right winger. Though his follow up campaign in 2024-25 wasn’t as strong, scoring just 10 goals and 22 assists in 68 games, Evangelista has proven he’s capable of at least a middle-six, scoring winger role in the NHL.
With his entry level contract set to expire this summer, Evangelista becomes a restricted free agent, setting up a process by which Evangelista can remain in Nashville for 2025-26 and beyond.
How does the NHL’s restricted free agency process work?
Restricted free agency is a tool in the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement to allow teams contractual control over young players. Players are restricted free agents once their entry-level contract expires (July 1), but before they’ve turned 27 years old or have played in seven seasons.
At any point after the entry-level contract expires, the team and player can negotiate a new contract. To maintain a player’s rights, the team must submit a qualifying offer by June 25 or the Monday after the NHL draft. Qualifying offers are calculated based on the player’s previous salary, following this formula:
Salary greater than $660,000, but less than $1,000,000, qualifying offer must be 105% of the previous salary (maximum of $1,000,000).Salary equal to or greater than $1,000,000, qualifying offer must be 100% of the previous salary.
In the case of Evangelista, his salary in 2024-25 was $797,500, so his qualifying offer must be at least $813,750.
Again, the team and player may negotiate a contract at any time after the entry-level contract expires. Essentially, the qualifying offer extends the time in which the two parties can work on a new contract. If the qualifying offer is not accepted by July 15, it expires, though the team can apply for an extension through the league.
If certain conditions are met, the player may file for salary arbitration. Last summer, Predators defenseman Spencer Stastney opted for arbitration after the two parties could not agree on a new contract. He was eventually awarded a two-year, $1.6 million deal through that process.
Evangelista is not eligible for arbitration, so that is not an option for him.
Though it rarely happens, restricted free agents can refuse to sign their qualifying offer. This would make them ineligible to play the next season unless they sign by Dec. 1.
What kind of contract will Luke Evangelista sign?
Though the Predators are in an advantageous negotiating position with Evangelista, they might want to consider a long term deal, given he’s a young player who with goal scoring ability.
Through 172 games, Evangelista has scored 33 goals and 53 assists as a right wing playing 14 minutes per night. He will be 23 years old at the time of his new contract.
One comparable situation would be Filip Chytil in 2021. Through 186 games, Chytil had 34 goals and 37 assists as a center playing 14 minutes per night. As a then 22-year-old, Chytil signed a two-year, $4.6 million contract – a $2.3 million annual cap hit – with the New York Rangers.
Center is a more premium position than right wing, plus Chytil was a former first-round pick, so it’s not a perfect comparison, but an annual cap hit around $2 million would be a good fit for Evangelista.
The Predators were in a similar situation with forward Calle Jarnkrok in 2016. They eventually signed him to a six-year, $12 million deal at a $2 million annual cap hit.
Nashville might approach Evangelista with the same idea: Commit to a four- to six-year deal with an annual cap hit of about $2 million, locking up the young, skilled forward in the short term, plus setting up Evangelista to sign a bigger contract when he hits unrestricted free agent status.
Alex Daugherty is the Predators beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Alex at jdaugherty@gannett.com. Follow Alex on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @alexdaugherty1. Also check out our Predators exclusive Instagram page @tennessean_preds.