Modern NHL defencemen aren’t allowed the same freedom to clutch, grab and hinder puck carriers during play. This leads to more chaos, more goals against, and far more eye rolls from fans when things go wrong. Current defencemen must use speed, quick recovery and rely on support to get the job done.

Fans are left to ponder what holds most value in measuring success: the eye test or the math evidence. When it comes to believing your lying eyes, Edmonton Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is perhaps the ultimate test.

Saturday night

Bouchard delivered a memorable performance against the Washington Capitals on Saturday night. He scored three goals, added three assists, kept pucks in along the Capitals’ blue line like a magician, hammered Alex Ovechkin with a thunderous check and made several quality plays without the puck. If you said this was Bouchard’s best game in the NHL, few would argue.

The final point for Bouchard came in overtime, as he knocked an airborne puck to the ice, pivoted as he was being tripped, and sent an area pass to Connor McDavid for a breakaway and the winning goal. It was an evening of brilliance by the veteran defenceman, and silenced critics who were unhappy with the ragged recent play.

Bouchard’s career can be summed up in one sentence, read as both praise and damnation: single events in a hockey game can have enormous importance while also being single events. Players and fans want the same thing: consistency. Easier said than done.

The eye test

Bouchard’s skating (he’s above average, per NHL Edge) and his exceptional ability to pass the puck tape-to-tape by threading a needle are delightful to the eye. In the old days, we might have said his calmness when danger lurks is like having “ice in his veins,” but calm looks identical to indifference when the play goes wrong.

Bouchard is the owner of an excellent poker face. He looks the same no matter the situation, so it’s easy to conclude that the player is unfazed by danger and disaster. A more expressive face, or a broken stick over the crossbar, might endear Bouchard more to fans, but that isn’t his character.

That isn’t to excuse the mistakes. Bouchard would do well to play with more urgency when representing the last line of defence or handling the puck near his own net. That said, chaos is part of his game, and he has a low panic threshold. Generally speaking, those are strengths for NHL defencemen.

Math and Bouchard

The eye test shows Bouchard to be a high-event player, and the math doesn’t quarrel with the description. Natural Stat Trick tells us Bouchard is on the ice at five-on-five for 6.15 goals (for and against total) per 60 minutes. Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche is at 5.55, Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens is running at 5.72 goals per 60. Zach Werenski (6.21 goals per 60 for and against) is in the same general range as Bouchard. Bouchard’s elevated total goals has all manner of influences, including quality of goaltending, style of play and elite competition, but he owns 6.15 goals per 60, including all five-on-five totals for both sides.

Here’s how the numbers break down for each of these elite puck movers.

PlayerGF-60GA-60Pct

3.72

1.83

67

3.23

2.49

57

3.45

2.76

56

3.36

2.79

55

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

All four men are terrific players, with Makar and the Colorado Avalanche in a tier of their own this season. Edmonton flourishes with Bouchard on the ice at five-on-five, with GA per 60 and goalie save percentage representing the issue for the Oilers.

Perhaps the biggest gap comes in goal share when each man is off the ice. Edmonton’s goal share (42 percent) is shy of Colorado without Makar (64 percent), and less competitive when Montreal’s Hutson is at rest (49 percent), and Columbus is giving Werenski (46 percent) a breather.

The ceiling and floor in Edmonton represent the NHL’s Grand Canyon. Bouchard, despite errors that our eyes tell us make his presence in a feature role untenable, is an effective frontline starter on the top pairing.

The McDavid effect

At five-on-five this season, Bouchard with McDavid owns a 56 percent goal share, featuring 3.67 goals per 60. That’s strong, but it was 62 percent one year ago. With McDavid on the way to what looks like one of his best seasons, it’s easy to lay blame on the goaltending or Bouchard for the drop in goal share year over year.

The numbers tell a different story.

Bouchard, without McDavid this season at five-on-five, is at 53 percent goal share. The GF per 60 is well below the McDavid minutes (2.96), but the team gives up less (2.66 GA per 60) in those minutes away from the captain.

Meanwhile, and this is unusual, McDavid away from Bouchard is at 50 percent — 2.7 goals per 60 on offence and defence. The gaps are marginal, but Bouchard’s five-on-five minutes feature a higher goals per 60 and slightly better GA per 60 than McDavid can manage without the defenceman.

Bouchard is a productive outlet passer and support player for McDavid. Math takes into account all of the goals scored after a Bouchard mishap, and still believes he’s an elite option for the captain. At five-on-five, without Bouchard, McDavid’s scoring rates are the lowest in the last five seasons.

Special teams

Bouchard has added another gear to his arsenal. His skill set isn’t a natural fit for the penalty kill, but coach Kris Knoblauch is using him there for almost two minutes per game. That’s easily the most PK time of his career. He remains a monster contributor on the power play, with his 20 points currently ranking second in the NHL.

Bottom line

At some level, Bouchard and the Oilers won’t get their flowers until the Stanley Cup is won. That’s the expectation, and many fans believe more than one championship is reasonable. On that level, the mistakes made are a roadblock to success, and for some, nothing else matters.

On the other hand, Bouchard’s high-wire act is highly successful and is helping McDavid reach his best performances this season. Does Bouchard have another gear? After a performance like Saturday, it’s fair to ask the question. All that keeps Bouchard from his personal outer marker is consistency. Perhaps that is next.