Hunter Skoczylas shares his prediction for Wednesday’s NHL matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Colorado Avalanche.

The Senators are hosting the Avalanche on Wednesday night at the Canadian Tire Centre, with puck drop scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Colorado is a -148 Moneyline favorite, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.

Below, I’ll share a preview and prediction for Wednesday night’s tilt between the Senators and Avalanche.

Ottawa Senators vs. Colorado Avalanche prediction, preview

Senators preview

The Senators are coming off a 7-1 win over the Golden Knights three days ago, but the club is just 6-6-2 since the start of the new year and finds itself second-to-last in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s tilt will be the third game of a four-game homestand for Ottawa, with 37-year-old James Reimer starting between the pipes. Reimer is just one of five goaltenders that has started a game for the Senators this season, and he sports a 3.32 GAA and .870 SV% across four starts.

While the Senators have surrendered 3.6 goals per game this month, they have also averaged 3.5 goals per game. The club ranks third in 5v5 goals per 60, fourth in 5v5 xGoals% and fifth in 5v5 Corsi%. It’s fair to say that poor goaltending has flipped this season upside down for Ottawa, with the club ranking seventh in total goals allowed. The Senators rank ninth in PP%, but third-to-last in both PK% and power play goals allowed.

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Avalanche preview

The Avalanche have come back down to Earth (for their standards) after putting together an absurd 23-1-3 run from November to December. Since the new year, the club has posted a 5-4-2 record, while averaging 3.5 goals and allowing 3.1 goals per game. Mackenzie Blackwood will start in net, and while he sports a 2.41 GAA and .911 SV% across 19 starts this season, he has given up at least five goals in two of his past three starts.

We all know how dominant this Avalanche team has been on the offensive end. It has averaged nearly 4.0 goals per game and dominates nearly every 5v5 metric, ranking first in 5v5 goals per 60, first in 5v5 Goal%, second in 5v5 xGoals% and second in 5v5 Corsi%. What makes Colorado truly dominant is the fact that the club also allows the fewest 5v5 goals per 60. The Avalanche have looked elite offensively for years now, while the goaltending has hindered team success, but it looks like the club has finally found a dependable tandem in Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood.

Senators vs. Avalanche pick, best bet

These two teams met for the first time this season earlier this month, with the Avalanche winning, 8-2. Sure, Colorado hasn’t looked as dominant lately, but I am expecting more of the same tonight, and so is the public. 78% of the handle and 72% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook have been placed on the Avalanche to cover the Puck Line (-1.5), set at +155 odds, and I absolutely lean this way; however, the total is more enticing.

83% of the handle and 75% of the bets have been placed on the total to go over 6.5 goals, set at -125 odds. The Avalanche have averaged nearly 4.0 goals per game, and Blackwood has looked shaky lately, which should result in goals for the Senators. This game should be high-scoring with two well-rested teams that excel in 5v5 play.

Best Bet: OVER 6.5 Total Goals (-125)

Prop Lean: Brock Nelson Anytime Goalscorer (+170)

Nelson is coming off a hat trick against Toronto and scored two goals in the Avalanche’s 8-2 win over the Senators earlier this month. The 34-year-old is on pace for his first career 40-goal season and should see plenty of quality 5v5 chances. He ranks sixth in the NHL in 5v5 goals per 60, one spot behind his teammate, Nathan MacKinnon (-110 to score a goal).