Our Capitals vs. Red Wings predictions expect Dylan Larkin to make an impact at home.
Jan 29, 2026 • 09:12 ET
• 3 min read
EXPERT PICK – PROP
Dylan Larkin o2.5 Shots On Goal (-138)
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Dylan Larkin celebrates scoring a game-winning overtime goal against the Maple Leafs.
Dylan Larkin has piled up the shots of late, averaging 3.8 per game over his last 10.
My Capitals vs. Red Wings predictions and NHL picks expect the volume to remain strong in an advantageous matchup against Washington.
Capitals vs Red Wings prediction
Capitals vs Red Wings best bet: Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots (-150)
Dylan Larkin has posted impressive shot outputs all season. He’s gone Over this total in 63% of his appearances while averaging 3.0 shots on 6.1 attempts.
We’ve seen a further spike in recent weeks. Larkin’s averages have soared to 3.8 shots on 7.2 attempts over his past 10 games.
He should have a ton of shooting opportunities in this one. The Washington Capitals are a below-average shot suppression team, and Larkin has faced them twice. He cleared 2.5 shots in both games while generating 6+ attempts in each.
Larkin has already shown he can make noise against the Capitals. That should remain the case, given they’ve allowed more shots to centers than anybody over the last 10 games.
The Capitals also rank Bottom 10 in shot suppression vs. forwards this season. Larkin has played nine home games against such opponents, averaging 3.9 shots on target and going Over in eight of those games.
Five of them came following a day of rest. Larkin’s numbers increased even further, jumping to 4.2 shots per contest.
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Capitals vs Red Wings same-game parlay
Larkin has scored in 41% of his games this season and 48% after a day of rest. His hit rate jumps to 56% when recording 3+ shots, which we’re banking on in this game.
Lucas Raymond leads the Detroit Red Wings in helpers by a country mile and skates with Larkin at 5-on-5 as well as on the power play. He’s most likely to help facilitate a goal.
Going the other way, Jakob Chychrun is poised to make noise. He’s recorded 12 shots on 22 attempts over two games against Detroit and attempted 8+ shots in three of his past four overall.
Capitals vs Red Wings SGP
Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots
Dylan Larkin anytime goalscorer
Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 assists
Jakob Chychrun Over 2.5 shots
Capitals vs Red Wings odds
Moneyline: Capitals -105 | Red Wings -133
Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-230) | Red Wings -1.5 (+190)
Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Capitals vs Red Wings trend
Dylan Larkin has recorded 3+ shots in six of his past seven games against the Capitals. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Capitals vs Red Wings
Location
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Date
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Puck drop
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN Unlimited
Capitals vs Red Wings latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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