If you thought Detroit Red Wings defenseman Axel Sandin-Pellikka has been playing less and less recently, you’d be correct. The 20-year-old rookie has seen his ice time steadily decline over the last 20 games.
I was curious about this trend and decided to dig into the numbers. Why has Sandin-Pellikka’s ice time gone down lately? Here’s what I found.
Red Wings’ Usage of Sandin-Pellikka & Results
The chart below illustrates Sandin-Pellikka’s five-on-five ice time over the course of the season, plus what I consider to be the best statistic to use when measuring defensive impact – high-danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60). Note that the numbers below are the five-game rolling averages, not the nightly totals.
Axel Sandin-Pellikka’s time on ice and high-danger chances against per 60 through the first 54 games of the Detroit Red Wings’ regular season.
As you can see, Sandin-Pellikka’s ice time started to drop after a rough stretch around Games 28-31. Since then, his HDCA/60 has been fine. Not stellar. Not awful. Just fine – and in line with the rest of Detroit’s defense.
High-danger chances against per 60 have ebbed and flowed throughout the season among Detroit’s defensemen.
As you’d expect, Sandin-Pellikka and Ben Chiarot have similar numbers. It makes sense given the fact that the two have played over 500 minutes together at five on five this season.
Related: Red Wings Re-Sign Ben Chiarot: Why the Move Makes Sense
Diving deeper, Sandin-Pellikka’s deployment hasn’t changed much since his four-game cold streak. He’s starting roughly the same amount of shifts in the offensive, defensive, and neutral zones, so it’s not like you can say the Red Wings are placing a greater emphasis on sheltering him. He’s just losing shifts to Albert Johansson and Jacob Bernard-Docker.
If anything, Sandin-Pellikka’s giveaways have increased lately – 3.96 per 60 since December 1 (3.34 per 60 prior). That’s about it, though.
Detroit Red Wings defenceman Axel Sandin Pellikka skating in a game against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Mandatory Credit: Gerry Angus-Imagn Images
On the offensive side, there’s nothing to suggest that Sandin-Pellikka is in the midst of a slump. In fact, he has the highest five-on-five points per 60 among Detroit’s defensemen since December 1 (1.16).
Given the information above, Sandin-Pellikka’s recent performance doesn’t warrant a demotion from a statistical standpoint. Instead, his reduced role may simply be a matter of load management. This is his first season playing at the highest level, and the NHL’s schedule is compressed this year due to the month-long Olympic break. That’s a lot of wear and tear — even for a 20-year-old.
Recommended Red Wings Plan for Sandin-Pellikka
Stating the obvious – it would be in Detroit’s best interest if Sandin-Pellikka was an impact player down the stretch. Playing big minutes as part of a playoff push would be huge for his development.
Here’s how I would proceed with the rookie to ensure he’s ready to contribute to the playoff push:
Status quo until the Olympic break
Use the break to recover physically and mentally
Test increased ice time post-Olympics – closer to 18-19 total minutes a night
I cannot emphasize enough how vital the Olympic break is. Time away from the rink and Detroit’s rigorous schedule will help re-energize Sandin-Pellikka, so that he can challenge Johansson and Bernard-Docker for more ice time.
It’s worth pointing out, though, that there are four games between the Olympics and the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline. The Red Wings are expected to buy this year, and should add defensive depth to bolster their blue line for the postseason.
Adding another blueliner to the mix could impact Sandin-Pellikka’s ice time. That said, the rearguard controls his own fate. If his play warrants it, he’ll stay in the top four and won’t be pushed down further in the lineup.
Data courtesy of NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, and PuckIQ.
