For many weeks now we’ve heard from numerous insiders that at the 2026 NHL trade deadline the Edmonton Oilers will focus on acquiring a Top 9 forward.
But is that Edmonton’s real need?
In fact, the problem the Edmonton Oilers have had this year is on defence. It’s an inability to shut down opposed teams. The problem has not gone away since Oilers GM Stan Bowman waived veteran Troy Stecher and traded away veteran Brett Kulak.
Ty Emberson has stepped up as a bottom-pairing d-man this year, but as a group they’re leaking Grade A shots against with a combination of turnovers, missed assignments, lost battles, and bad line changes (I’m looking at you Jake Walman).
The Oilers gave up too many Grade A shots against when they were a truly mediocre team in the first two months of the season. But the Oilers are still giving up far too many Grade A shots in the past two months, when they’ve been a much better team.
Their rate of giving up Grade A and even more dangerous 5-alarm shots hasn’t budged all year, remaining stubbornly high.
In 2022-23 under Jay Woodcroft, the team gave up 12.1 Grade A shots per game, with the 6.2 of them 5-alarm shots against.
In 2023-24 under Knoblauch, the team gave up 11.6 Grade A shots against, 6.1 5-alarmers.
In 2024-25 under Knoblauch, 12 Grade A against, 5.8 5-alarm against.
But this year under Knoblauch it’s been 13.9 Grade A shots against per game and 6.6 5-alarm against.
In the past two games, losses to the Wild and the Leafs, Edmonton has given up 12 and 13 Grade A shots respectively.
It’s almost impossible to win a game if you’re giving up that many nasty, dangerous 5-alarm shots.
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Edmonton started to win in early December as coach Kris Knoblauch started to find lines that work, first the McDavid line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, then the Draisaitl line with Kasperi Kapanen and Vasily Podkolzin, and finally third and fourth lines of Josh Samanski, Matt Savoie and Jack Roslovic on the third, and Curtis Lazar, Mattias Janmark and Trent Frederic on the fourth.
It could well be that the fourth line still needs another big, aggressive winger, but Lazar has been playing solid two-way hockey.
While the third line might not be perfect with a couple of rookies in Savoie and Samanski, it’s been playing well recently and shows promise. It’s also the case that Bowman likely has the ammunition to make only one major trade.
Right now, as it stands, that trade should be for another d-man.
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Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are as good as ever on the top-pairing. Darnell Nurse has had a good season overall on the second pair, though he’s been inconsistent. Ty Emberson has stepped up and can be counted on for useful third-paring minutes.
But Jake Walman, Alec Regula and Spencer Statsney. They’re all leaking Grade A shots against. It’s as simple as that. They’re not coming close to defending well enough.
Walman was solid in the playoffs last year and that goes a long way with me. He’s been hurt twice this year, so that has slowed him down. I expect he’ll step up. But Stastney and Regula? I’m uncertain enough about them that I’m convinced this is where the Oilers must add a player. It’s also the case the Oil lack depth on defence in case of injury to a Top 4 d-man.
Another second or third pairing d-man is what the Oilers really need.
Kurt Leavins and I have been saying as much on the Cult of Hockey podcast for many weeks now.
I wonder when the insiders will start saying it as well.
So let the Los Angeles Kings trade for a big name attacker like Artemi Panarin. They need that kind of attacker. He will make them more dangerous.
What the Oilers need is to be less dangerous to themselves when they don’t have the puck.
All the players need to commit to playing championship defence. But the defensive corps itself could use at least one additional solid player.
That’s where Bowman should spend his ammunition.
P.S. My Hall-of-Fame colleague Jim Matheson raised again the notion of the Oilers bringing back Paul Coffey, an idea I pushed hard on the start of the year.
If Coffey is willing, why not bring him back? The Oilers were better defensively when he was coach.
At the same time, the main issue with the departure of Kulak is a personnel issue. The Oilers need another solid two-way d-man to work with, whoever coaches this group.
At the Cult of Hockey