Earlier today, the New Jersey Devils announced that, prior to the NHL roster freeze for the 2026 Olympics, they acquired center Nick Bjugstad from the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Thomas Bordeleau and one of their two 2026 fourth-round picks (Dallas or Winnipeg), whichever is later (Dallas).
My initial thought was: well, this would have been great three months ago.
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My second thought was: I know Bjugstad doesn’t score as much as he used to…how much has age caught up with him in the rest of his game?
Don’t get me wrong. I like Nick Bjugstad. I have liked him as a hockey player for a very long time, in part because I used to watch a ton of Florida Panthers games to watch their Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr line after Lou Lamoriello let Jagr move on following the dismissal of Pete DeBoer now over a decade ago. I wanted this guy on the Devils when Florida traded him to Pittsburg. I wanted him here when he moved on to Minnesota, and Arizona, and so on. This may be a few years too late, but it could still be something.
There are a lot of reasons to want a guy like Nick Bjugstad on your team. Throughout his career, his best trait has usually been that he generates a lot of offensive volume by the net, and he has scored 20 goals twice — in 2014-15, when he was 22, and in 2023-24, when he was 31. He developed into more of a defensive center in his late 20s, but the current analytic profile on him is that, now 33, he is slipping a bit. These days, Bjugstad’s situational use should be a bit more restricted. He still uses his size, at 6’6”, to win space in the scoring areas, though his finishing has been inconsistent throughout his career. Still, the Devils need players who can get to the middle of the ice and not lose the puck so easily, and also players who are willing to shoot from anywhere.
In HockeyViz’s Synthetic Goals model, which combines separate aspects of impact (goal-scoring, teammate finishing/passing, offensive shot impact, defensive shot impact, special teams impact, and penalty differential), Bjugstad’s impact this season is estimated at -5.1 sG, which is in upper-fourth line territory. For reference, an average, second-third line player, would be estimated around zero. This would be an improvement over Luke Glendening, who is currently estimated at a whopping (I’ve never seen it this low) -21.1 sG. For reference, Evgenii Dadonov is currently up to -15.9 (he was lower after his first few appearances), Juho Lammikko sits at -8.1, and Paul Cotter is at -7.8. Despite his aging, his analytical profile is still significantly better than others who have donned the Devils’ sweater this season.
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What’s great about Bjugstad’s current profile is that his negative impacts are largely situational. He gets -0.4 for his power play impact and -0.9 for his shorthanded impact. Best solution: don’t play him there. Replacing Glendening with Bjugstad in the lineup is a great opportunity for a younger player in Cody Glass getting more of a role with the penalty killing unit, which he has shown promise in oddly limited use throughout his career.
Otherwise, he gets -2.o from his combined penalty impact, as he’s not drawing a ton of trips and hooks, but he takes his share of them. But I don’t care much about that — Bjugstad is a 6’6” center who makes his living creating rebounds and looking for the puck around the net. He’s not going to draw much other than the occasional cross-check, slash, or roughing there, most of the time. Considering this, he does not have a good setting/playmaking impact, at -1.6. It’s just not his game. If Tom Fitzgerald is tuned into what Bjugstad is good at, they want Bjugstad here to get shots on goal. Bjugstad is great at getting his shot attempts through to the net, he has become very good at generating rebounds, and he does not miss the net too often.
The New Jersey Devils have desperately needed this type of fourth-line center: one who won’t easily let his line get outshot 5-1, 7-3, or 8-2 on a consistent basis. The only other player they have with a similar shooting profile is Stefan Noesen. While the biggest issue with this deal is that it would have been best timed a few months ago (and may have had a real impact on their playoff hopes if it happened in November or December), I actually think it’s a good idea to get a head start on evaluating potential players who may be with the team next season. Both Maxim Tsyplakov and Nick Bjugstad are under contract next season, with Bjugstad making $1.75 million and Tsyplakov making $2.25 million. I’m not expecting Bjugstad to suddenly have a 40-point season like he had last season, but he can actually chip in 10 or 15 goals. I also think that they can use a bigger forward in their lineup, as most of the size on their roster is currently on the blueline. It’s a different element on the rush and in the offensive zone.
It is not like the expected options in free agency this year are stellar. And I do not think that Juho Lammikko has shown anything to make the organization think he might be a part of next season’s plans. There are no reasons why they should let the same players continue to have lineup spots, even if Lammikko was not the first player I would have suggested be sent down. It was simply most convenient for the team, as he already passed through waivers on January 16. If anything, I am most disappointed that they didn’t go a step further by waiving someone else to claim Sammy Blais off waivers, who has eight points in 21 games this season. I would have actually liked to watch a Blais-Bjugstad-Tsyplakov fourth line.
But this is a start. I am sympathetic to Jared for his piece earlier today on avoiding “buy” moves. But I actually think this is at least a start to his thesis of resetting the roster. Jared wrote,
I don’t know if they’ll be able to fill all of those holes next season with internal options. I do know that for a team that is entirely too mediocre, there should probably be few so-called untouchables. I do know that for a team that is entirely too mediocre, guys like Paul Cotter, Juho Lammikko, or Luke Glendening shouldn’t have ironclad roster spots. We’ve seen enough where there’s no harm in giving someone else from Utica a chance.
You might be thinking: oh, but the Kings just got Panarin for a third-rounder and a prospect!
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My response to that is two-fold: first, Artemi Panarin had a no-trade clause. He may have specifically requested Los Angeles. and as much is currently rumored. Second, Liam Greentree is a true prospect, and Thomas Bordeleau is a young AHLer. There is a big difference there. Liam Greentree is 20 years old and may be having a bit of a disappointing final juniors season, but has the size and goal-scoring profile to actually be a problem for the Devils and other teams in a couple years. Thomas Bordeleau is 24 years old and went from scoring 38 points in the AHL last year to just 8 points through 35 games this season. If the Devils were going to send Lammikko down and call up an AHLer, Bordeleau would not be close to the top of the list with how he has produced this season. Simply, players like Brian Halonen (18 points in 23 games), Xavier Parent (19 points in 33 games), Angus Crookshank (16 points in 30 games), and Shane Lachance (15 points in 36 games after a dreadfully slow start) would be the four AHLers worth giving an extended look for the rest of the season. If they had a prospect there of Liam Greentree’s caliber, he would likely already be up.
Do I think that the Devils need “reset” moves bigger than swapping Lammikko for Bjugstad on the NHL roster? Yes. I would not mind seeing someone making a bit more money than the league minimum moving on aside from Ondrej Palat. Do I think that they can replace more players by calling up their top scorers in Utica? Yes. I am not very hopeful about making the playoffs at this point, and there is little harm that can be done replacing guys who haven’t produced much of anything with players who haven’t gotten chances in the NHL yet.
But this is the crux of it, from Jared:
This season is different. The Devils are closer to being a last place team in the Eastern Conference than they are being a true contender. There’s enough of a body of work to know that there is no trade Fitzgerald can make that will move the needle enough to catapult this team to the top of the division. They shouldn’t trade premium picks, players, or prospects unless they’re getting a true difference maker with team control back, and even then, that’s probably not going to be enough for this season.
Bjugstad is a player with team control, but he is not a true difference maker. If used right and paired with offensively-minded players, he can create some goals. His play won’t hurt the team as much as several of the guys the Devils have had out there. But he’s probably not turning the season around. Did they give up too much for him? Thomas Bordeleau, to me, is not even a prospect anymore, and a late fourth-round pick (it will be Dallas’ pick, and they may go far in the playoffs) is not a premium pick. They have lost little of substance, and Lammikko should be much better for Utica than Bordeleau was.
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The next biggest issue, aside from this trade being needed three months ago, is that Nick Bjugstad is 33 years old. He can still play decent five-on-five minutes on the fourth line, but he is having a worse season than last year, and that’s not a great trend. But Bjugstad has a name in the NHL, and if he does not look like he is going to work out at the end of the season here, they can probably still make up a mid-round pick in the offseason by trading him then. He’s not making a ton of money, and his 51.1% win rate in the dot (49.0% over career) can garner interest along with the mere facts that he is 6’6” with a right-shot.
In all, I would grade this one a B- for Tom Fitzgerald. I believe in replacing unproductive players earlier than later, and this one came too late. Bjugstad has not set the world on fire either, but his six goals would rank first among Devils currently used on the fourth line on a regular basis despite Bjugstad missing 21 games. I would have also preferred a younger fourth or third-line target, in a similar vein to how they acquired Cody Glass last season. With Bjugstad being 33 years old, I am wary. I think that the front office needs to pay close attention to how he plays and whether they can trust him in a regular role when he’s a year older. But Bjugstad fills the fourth-line center role better than Luke Glendening does for a team that needs a more consistent offensive approach, and it would not hurt to see a 6’6” fourth liner actually go and lead a forecheck for this team. Now get Brian Halonen on his wing and see what they can do. We really don’t need to see the Devils’ fourth liners play that many more games.
Your Thoughts
But what do you think of this deal? Do you think that this was a good idea at this point of the season? How would you compare Bjugstad to the expected fourth line free agents in July in terms of their fit with the team next season? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.