Brandon Hagel continues to pile up the shots each night without Brayden Point in the lineup, especially at home.

My Panthers vs. Lightning predictions have that trend continuing in his final game before the Olympic break.

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Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for Thursday, February 5.

Panthers vs Lightning prediction

Panthers vs Lightning best bet: Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 shots on goal (-160)

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel has averaged 3.6 shots and 7.5 attempts per game without Brayden Point. Those are much higher than his outputs with Point in the lineup and have led to a remarkable 76% Over rate, clearing this line in 13 of 17 games.

His numbers in Tampa Bay are even better. He’s produced 4.3 shots on goal per game, averaging close to eight attempts each night with Point sidelined. That has resulted in eight Overs through nine games. Incredible consistency.

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Not only is Hagel skating on the No. 1 power play, but he has Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel by his side on a stacked top line.

Without Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Nick Paul, head coach Jon Cooper has opted to use Guentzel at center and put all his eggs in that basket.

They will undoubtedly get plenty of offensive zone starts and cushier usage to help maximize their abilities.

They should spend a ton of time on the attack, generating opportunities. Hagel is the most trigger-happy player of the bunch and will get plenty of chances to shoot as a result.

Panthers vs Lightning same-game parlay

We’re going to take a couple of swings and try to head into the break with a bang.

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Hagel’s high volume makes him a threat to score nightly, particularly with so many of his shots coming from high-danger areas. He has scored eight goals through nine home dates without Point.

Sticking with Canadian Olympians, Brad Marchand stands out for the Florida Panthers. He will be unfazed by the difficult matchup as he has scored in exactly 50% of his games vs. Top-10 defenses, including all three meetings with Tampa Bay.

Panthers vs Lightning SGP

Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 shots on goal

Brandon Hagel anytime goal

Brad Marchand anytime goal

Panthers vs Lightning odds

Moneyline: Panthers +160 | Lightning -190

Puck Line: Panthers +1.5 (-150) | Lightning -1.5 (+130)

Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)

Panthers vs Lightning trend

Brandon Hagel has 3+ shots in nine of his last 10 without Brayden Point. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Lightning.

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How to watch Panthers vs Lightning

Location

Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

Date

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Puck drop

7:30 p.m. ET

TV

Hulu

Panthers vs Lightning latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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