In many ways, the Ottawa Senators have been dominant as a complete defensive unit. However, they have been less than dominant when it comes to the standings. The Sens are currently six points out the Eastern Conference Wild Card picture. Let’s take a look at the Senators defensive analytics, and why their strong play in many statistical categories, has been offset by others, and what it all means for the stretch drive of 2025-26.
A Deep Dive of the Ottawa Senators 2025-26 Defensive Analytics
It is possible the opposition has figured out the Sens. They know how to attack. Even though Ottawa has done remarkably well at understanding how to prevent offence against them. Conversely, they unfortunately haven’t figured out how to directly translate it into the win column.
Ottawa continues to be extremely successful in some defensive metrics. In expected goals against average, Ullmark leads the league at 2.27. As a note, for the goaltender statistics mentioned, we are filtering on goalies with a minimum of 15 games played. 62 goalies league-wide qualify, as a result. If we combine this expected goal standing of their top goalie with Ottawa’s 5v5 Corsi percentage 53.0%, a stat that Ottawa ranks fifth in the show this season, the Sens are looking pretty good. But we are here to problem solve, not focus on just the good.
The Darkside of the Sens Defence
One aspect of the Senators that is a noted weakness is their right-side defence. You know, the upper-end. There is some argument that they lack a true, number-one right-shot defenceman. Artem Zub is excellent defensively, and a solid top-four guy, but he probably ranks more as a second-pair defenceman.
This idea can be difficult to quantify, when the team has shown to be strong in so many defensive categories. However, one area the team has struggled defensively, is on the penalty kill. The team has worked on improving. This includes switching from Nolan Baumgartner to Mike Yeo, as the coach in charge of the PK. Still, they currently rank 30th at 73.1%. Again, this area is improving, the team has struggled not taking away the oppositions options. Too often they leave unmarked snipers, net front. And when you are facing the opponent’s most skilled offensive players on the power play, they are going to make you pay more often than not.
Another Look at the Statistical Evidence
Take a moment to think about the Senators ranking in different levels of danger of save percentage. In this way, you can kind of describe the situations that would lead to these results.
Let’s look at the low danger shot attempt save percentage. Our thought is this can reflect overall team defence, the forwards, defence, and goalies, even though it is a goaltender statistic. In any case, Linus Ullmark is about average, but far from what we would expect from someone making over $8 million, ranking 25th overall, at .966. Now, this could be, at least partially, explained by shot suppression. Ottawa is great at limiting offence. On the flip side of the coin, this can result in their goaltender getting out of rhythm. The main point is, that the top goalies are at around .975. Therefore, given the lower shot totals Ottawa tends to surrender (second at 24.5), this dislocation for the Senators would be less impactful on the bottom-line, win-loss record.
We Might Have Identified the Bug
Next up is the medium danger opportunities. Here, Ullmark dips to last place of the 62 qualifying tenders. At .801, this continues to be a glaring problem for Ottawa. This would be more so those shots from the top of the circle. Ones that, even if they aren’t high danger, if shooters have a clear look at goal, can be very difficult for the goaltenders to stop. Furthermore, this is where your defencemen’s gap control would factor in your outcomes. If Nick Jensen isn’t able to stay with his checks or Artem Zub is caught between watching a guy down low, and someone cutting across the high slot, chances are that the highly-skilled shooters of today’s game will bury biscuit in basket.
The argument to be made, is that this stat falls on the defensive group. The medium-danger chances are preventable. This is opposed to the low-danger chances, that were more on total team defence, as we explained. Ideas such as wingers being on their point man, or the defencemen boxing out in front of the net, so the goalie can have a clear path to save shots on goal. You can’t have Nathan MacKinnon flying in through the high slot, or Jamie Drysdale costing you on shots from distance.
Now, which goaltender stat has mostly to do with the goaltending? Yeah, you guessed it, high-danger scoring opportunities. You know, the scoring opportunities the goalies had no business saving. This stat kind of shows what we have known all season, the Sens goaltending stats have not been good enough. Here, again, Ullmark is near the bottom in the ranking. At just .696, he falls 54th overall, not good enough. He would likely be the first to admit that very idea. But again, if the down low defensive play was stronger, would these opportunities be more preventable?
The Potential Fix
When we think of a solution, we think adding a top-pairing, right shot guy, would be a huge boost. That is where a guy like MacKenzie Weegar would fit ideally. A Dougie Hamilton might work, too. However, that would be the angle of the best defence, is a great offence. In any sense, the Sens could use an upgrade on the backend. The trickle-down effect, from the penalty kill to the medium-danger chances allowed, would be hugely significant. Time will tell if general manager Steve Staios is able to find the right fit. But with teams like the Minnesota Wild or Los Angeles Kings finding ways to hit the jackpot, why can’t Ottawa? Let’s go, the 2026 playoffs may depend on it.
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images