New York Rangers left wing Artemi Panarin (10) (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, immediate reaction to the Artemi Panarin trade, Charlie Coyle leads the surging Blue Jackets, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich producing for the Blues, and so much more!
#1 Moving to Los Angeles should be an interesting situation for Artemi Panarin, who has been one of the most productive forwards in the league. Since 2019-2020, he has 607 points in 482 games which ranks sixth in the league. That suggests that he should be able to keep scoring, even on a team that has its own troubles generating offense. It remains to be seen which Kings players Panarin will play with, but it would seem to be a possibility that Panarin could skate on a line with Quentin Byfield, who is a strong player but has been struggling to score this season.
#2 The prospect going to the Rangers in the Panarin trade is Liam Greentree, the 26th pick in the 2024 Draft. He is a 6-foot-3 winger who should have a chance to compete for a spot in the near future with the rebuilding Rangers, though his production has dropped – from 119 points in 64 games last season to 45 points in 35 games in the OHL this season. Gabriel Perreault and Brennan Othmann are the top forward prospects getting looks with the Rangers now so, depending on how the Rangers rebuild is handled, Greentree could have a chance to play in the NHL relatively soon.
#3 When the Blue Jackets replaced Dean Evason as head coach with Rick Bowness, it turned the season around. The new coach bounce has lifted the Blue Jackets to 10 wins in the past 11 games, and centre Charlie Coyle has been one of several Blue Jackets to elevate his play. In those 11 games, Coyle has 16 points (8 G, 8 A) and 31 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Cole Sillinger and Mathieu Olivier at even strength, but Coyle is getting first unit power play time, and he has scored three power play goals in the past 11 games.
#4 Surrounding an injury that kept him out of action for three weeks, Blues right winger Jordan Kyrou was held without a goal in 13 straight games, dropping his value for fantasy managers. In his past eight games, however, Kyrou has started to heat up, producing 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 29 shots on goal. He has scored more than 30 goals in each of the past three seasons and while that’s not as likely this season (he has 13 goals in 47 games), Kyrou is a proven scorer who could have real value down the stretch.
#5 With Robert Thomas injured, the Blues have shifted Pavel Buchnevich to the middle of the ice, and in his past seven games, Buchnevich has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has played some centre for the Blues, despite being terrible on faceoffs (winning 35.5 percent of his draws with St. Louis), but, as a skilled playmaker, he does seem to be connecting with Kyrou, improving the fantasy value for both of them.
#6 An upper-body injury kept Dallas Stars centre Matt Duchene out of action for nearly a couple of months, and it took him some time to get up to speed after returning. Duchene had just 11 points (4 G, 7 A) through his first 26 games, but since then he has recorded nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 13 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. He is starting to click on the power play, with three power play goals in those six games after he had one power play point in his previous 26 contests.
#7 There have been many times during this season that we have pointed out the value of Pittsburgh Penguins winger Anthony Mantha, yet he’s still available in a significant percentage of leagues. In his past nine games, Mantha has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 17 shots on goal. He has hit 20 goals for the fourth time in his career, and with 42 points, he is six points away from tying his career high, which was set in 2017-2018 and matched in 2018-2019. The towering winger has moved up the depth chart and is skating on Sidney Crosby’s wing and getting first unit power play time for the Penguins.
#8 Toronto Maple Leafs winger Bobby McMann has landed in trade rumours recently, as the Maple Leafs are on the outside looking in at the playoffs and he has an expiring contract. He is certainly not hurting his trade value with his play, putting up seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven games, making the most of his chance to skate with Auston Matthews and Max Domi on the Leafs’ top line. If McMann is traded, he may not have such a prime scoring role, but he has proven that he can put the puck in the net, generate shots on goal, and add some hits for good measure.
#9 After spending most of last season in the American Hockey League, Kailer Yamamoto is back in the NHL this season with the Utah Mammoth. That hasn’t been particularly relevant for fantasy managers for most of the season, but he does have eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in his past seven games, which makes him worth considering even if it’s as a short-term pick up. Yamamoto is skating with Barrett Hayton and JJ Peterka on Utah’s second line, which does help to make him at least a little bit interesting.
#10 As the Seattle Kraken seek more consistent scoring, they are getting quality production from their captain, Jordan Eberle. The veteran right winger has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games and his 38 points (20 G, 18 A) lead the Kraken. Eberle has exceeded 25 goals in a season twice in his career, most recently in 2013-2014, so he’s on pace for one of his best goal-scoring campaigns. He is skating on the Kraken’s top line with Matty Beniers and Jared McCann and they are having success, but it also highlights how the Kraken could use more game-breaking offensive talent.
#11 Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn is 36 now, so not the player that he was during his peak years, but he can still bring it in short bursts. Following a 12-game point drought, Benn has erupted for eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past four games. The trouble is that he only has five shots on goal in those four games – and only had a dozen in the previous 12 – so it’s very difficult to trust that his production is sustainable.
#12 A fresh start in Pittsburgh has paid off for winger Yegor Chinakhov, who was acquired from Columbus earlier in the season. Chinakhov has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past eight games, with his ice time going up over 15 minutes per game in that stretch, as he skates on Pittsburgh’s second line with Tommy Novak and Evgeni Malkin. Chinakhov’s 1.31 goals per 60 minutes ranks 13th among skaters to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes.
#13 With the Vancouver Canucks lacking options down the middle of the ice, especially in an offensive role, Teddy Blueger is stepping into a more offensive role. Blueger played two games in October before getting injured and recently returned to the lineup, putting up seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 17 shots on goal in eight games. He has also played 16:23 per game which is a couple of minutes more per game than his typical average, and he’s having some success skating with wingers Conor Garland and Liam Ohgren.
#14 Utah Mammoth defenceman Sean Durzi can get overlooked because he’s not running the top power play, but he’s always been a quality puck-moving defender so there are times that his offensive production starts to take off. In his past seven games, Durzi has produced six points (2 G, 4 A) with nine shots on goal and 12 blocked shots – those blocked shots providing real value for fantasy managers as a complement to his increased scoring.
#15 With injuries sidelining Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, the Anaheim Ducks have needed other centres to fill the void. Enter Ryan Poehling, a checking centre who has moved between veteran wingers Chris Kreider and Troy Terry. Poehling has six points (2 G, 4 A) and seven shots on goal in his past six games and while that shot rate is low, he is playing more than 17 minutes per game which is up by more than a couple of minutes per game over his previous average time on ice. Once the Ducks are healthy, Poehling will fill more of a defensive role, but it’s encouraging to see a player successfully handle a bigger role when given the chance.
#16 One of the statistical areas to consider for possible positive regression is to find players that have struggled with low on-ice shooting percentages. This isn’t a blanket issue because players who tend to skate on fourth lines, for example, are likely to have lower on-ice shooting percentages, but if a player is playing in a scoring role and still running low on-ice shooting percentages, that might be a player due for better puck luck. Some notables with low five-on-five on-ice shooting percentages this season include Marco Kasper (5.8%), Jonathan Drouin (6.0%), Jesper Bratt (6.1%), Dougie Hamilton (6.2%), Conor Garland (6.3%), Nico Hischier (6.4%), Kevin Fiala (6.5%), and Quinton Byfield (6.6%).
#17 Of course, it works the other way too, so when players have benefited from high on-ice shooting percentages, the odds are greater that they will run into some regression towards the mean. Some of the more notable players with high, and possibly unsustainable, five-on-five on-ice shooting percentages entering the Olympic break include Ivan Demidov (16.1%), William Nylander (16.0%), Oliver Kapanen (16.3%), Brayden Point (15.0%), Macklin Celebrini (14.8%), Mark Scheifele (14.3%), Jamie Benn (14.1%), Kyle Connor (14.0%), Gabriel Vilardi (13.9%), Nikita Kucherov (13.7%), and Cole Hutson (13.7%).
#18 This doesn’t mean that these players can’t remain productive, only that it’s very difficult to maintain this kind of lofty on-ice shooting percentage over the long haul. In the past three seasons, among players with at least 1500 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the leaders in on-ice shooting percentage are Kucherov (12.3%), Vilardi (12.2%), Points (12.1%), David Pastrnak (12.0%), and Hutson (11.8%).
#19 With Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen injured, Alex Lyon becomes even more important between the pipes for the Buffalo Sabres. Lyon has been excellent, posting a .912 save percentage this season, but if Luukkonen is going to miss time beyond the Olympic break, then Lyon and Colten Ellis will have to fill the void for a Sabres team that now expects to reach the playoffs.
#20 Calgary Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau is going to miss the rest of the season due to hip surgery. The veteran winger did have four points (2 G, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal in his last five games, but that followed a stretch of zero points in nine games. It has been a difficult season overall, with Huberdeau producing 25 points (10 G, 15 A) in 50 games and with the Flames looking like they will have an eye towards next season, Huberdeau’s absence will create more opportunities for others. Yegor Sharangovich and Connor Zary are likely to see expanded roles, which could make them viable fantasy contributors down the stretch.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick