By: Kim Smith Published 02/05/2026, 06:25 AM ET 
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to western New York to take on the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday, February 5, 2026, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 PM ET at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. This Eastern Conference matchup will be broadcast on ESPN+. Buffalo enters the night as the home favorite with the Sabres listed at -135 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh comes back at +114. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at -115 and the Under at -105. The puck line shows Pittsburgh +1.5 (-218) and Buffalo -1.5 (+180). Before diving into the breakdown and picks, make sure to check out our free NHL picks for more daily NHL betting insights.
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Terms & Conditions Pittsburgh Looking to Regain Momentum on the Road
Pittsburgh enters this matchup with a 28-15-12 overall record and has been strong away from home, posting a 15-7-5 road mark this season. The Penguins have shown some inconsistency in recent outings, having recently lost to the Islanders in overtime and dropped a close home game against Ottawa, but they have also recently won over the Rangers, Blackhawks, and Canucks. That mix of results highlights a team that remains dangerous offensively but has had a few lapses in late-game situations.
From a statistical standpoint, Pittsburgh continues to be one of the more efficient offensive teams in the league. The Penguins are averaging 3.38 goals per game while allowing just 2.91 goals against, a combination that has kept them competitive in nearly every contest. They generate 29.0 shots per game and do a solid job limiting opponents to 27.3 shots, reflecting a balanced approach that blends puck possession with responsible defensive play.
One area where Pittsburgh really stands out is special teams. The Penguins boast a lethal power play converting at 26.4%, with 38 power-play goals on the season. Their penalty kill has also been excellent, operating at 84.2% and allowing zero shorthanded goals against. That special teams edge could be especially important on the road against a Buffalo team that tends to play a faster, more physical style at home.
Buffalo Aiming to Protect Home Ice
Buffalo comes into Thursday night with a 32-18-6 overall record and has been particularly strong at home, where the Sabres are 17-7-3 at KeyBank Center. Over their last five games, Buffalo has recently lost tight overtime contests against Tampa Bay and Montreal but has also recently won over Florida, Los Angeles, and Toronto. Those results underline a team that is capable of scoring in bunches but can occasionally give up momentum defensively.
Offensively, the Sabres are right there with Pittsburgh, averaging 3.39 goals per game, one of the better marks in the conference. However, Buffalo allows 3.05 goals per game and gives up 30.1 shots per contest, which can put added pressure on their goaltending. While they do not control shot volume as effectively as Pittsburgh, they often compensate with speed and transition scoring.
Buffalo’s special teams are solid but not quite at the elite level of their opponent. The Sabres’ power play is converting at 20.1%, and their penalty kill sits at 82.1%. One strength worth noting is Buffalo’s aggressiveness when down a man, as they have scored seven shorthanded goals this season. That ability to flip momentum quickly could play a role if Pittsburgh gets careless with the puck on the power play.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres PickPittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres Moneyline Pick Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins +114
From a betting perspective, Pittsburgh offers value as a road underdog. The Penguins have been reliable away from home and bring a clear special teams advantage into this matchup. Buffalo’s tendency to allow a high volume of shots could be problematic against a Pittsburgh team that is efficient with its scoring chances. At plus money, backing the Penguins to win outright makes sense in what profiles as a tight, competitive game.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres Total Pick
I’m leaning to the Over in this spot. Both teams are averaging well over three goals per game, and each has shown a willingness to trade chances, especially in recent outings that have gone to overtime or featured late scoring swings. With strong power-play units on both sides and plenty of offensive talent on the ice, this game sets up well for a high-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.
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