The Minnesota Wild might have been able to force themselves to make a move last summer when they didn’t have to make one. Armed with a ton of cap space, they could have blown away a free agent like Brock Boeser or Nikolaj Ehlers. The Wild had young center Marco Rossi and a stockpile of prospects to make a trade with.
But nothing attractive materialized for them, keeping Minnesota relatively stagnant over the offseason. It was frustrating at the time, but it paid off in a major way when Quinn Hughes became available. Since the Wild didn’t deploy their cap space or prospect pool, they became an unlikely suitor.
It’s safe to say the move is working out, and it’s because of patience. “I like to be aggressive,” general manager Bill Guerin told Joe Smith of The Athletic. “But I also like to try to be smart.”
Trades for Hughes and David Jiříček haven’t completely drained the Wild’s prospect stash. Guerin has strong pieces like Danila Yurov, Jesper Wallstedt, and Charlie Stramel at his disposal. But another blockbuster trade will significantly thin out the system, and it’s leading some to wonder whether Minnesota is better off biding its time until the summer.
On Michael Russo’s “Worst Seats in the House” podcast, the reporter said, “Deep down, I think if the Wild are gonna trade Jesper Wallstedt, that’s gonna be a summer move, because I just don’t think you wanna make that move for Robert Thomas… just in case, all of a sudden, Auston Matthews became available. Or if the Wild decided to go with a winger, and a Brady Tkachuk became available. I just don’t think you want to waste that bullet now for a team that doesn’t have a lot of bullets anymore.”
For the most part, this is a sound strategy. Yes, the Wild have to find a way to convince Hughes to stay long-term, and a proof-of-concept that he can go deep in the playoffs with Minnesota would be a good way to do that. But is expending a major piece for, say, an aging Vincent Trocheck, for the sake of getting a good-but-not-great center, worth it?
Probably not, and that equation might hold true for other options in their 30s, like Steven Stamkos, or even Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly. At the same time, the calls for patience can go too far, and that point might be getting gun-shy to go all-in on Robert Thomas.
It’s fine to be realistic about Thomas’ stature in the NHL. He’s not a Matthews-level player. Stylistically, Guerin would almost certainly prefer Tkachuk. Thomas has almost — but not quite! — cracked the NHL’s top-20 in scoring, which might take him out of “True No. 1 Center” status for some.
OK, fine, whatever. But we’re still talking about Robert Thomas.
It’s hard to think of a box Thomas doesn’t check for the Wild’s needs. He’d be a center who can drive offense with Kirill Kaprizov at even-strength, something Minnesota has spent years looking for. He’s a right-shot, playmaking center who could help set up one-timers for Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek on the power play. Thomas brings above-average speed down the middle, a requirement now that Hughes is around to crank up the Wild’s pace.
Plus, Thomas has been productive as hell over the past five years, even counting his down season (33 points in 44 games). He’s one of 30 forwards (15 centers) to average over a point per game over the past five years. Thomas’ 1.01 points per game over that time eclipses many centers who have long been on the wish list of the State of Hockey fandom. We’re talking names like Tage Thompson (0.97 P/G), Tim Stützle (0.96), Elias Pettersson (0.95), Dylan Larkin (0.94), and Tkachuk (0.90).
And, unlike those above names… Thomas is available! Right now! Better yet, he’s cost-controlled in a way that can only help the Wild going forward. Thomas is locked in at $8.125 million for this year and the next five. For a team that just paid $17 million to keep Kaprizov and is aiming to write another massive check to keep Hughes, having a No. 1 center at that price point is a way to offset those splurges.
Thomas’ contract and age (26) also mean that Guerin can trade a major piece like Wallstedt without sacrificing future value. Let’s say Matthews becomes available over the summer. It might be more beneficial to have Thomas — an established, point-per-game center who’s younger than Matthews and signed for five years — as a centerpiece than a potential No. 1 goalie in Wallstedt. The only possible hiccup would be Thomas’ no-move clause… except Thomas is from the Greater Toronto Area.
Landing an aging center like Trocheck, Stamkos, or Nazem Kadri would likely close doors for Minnesota. The same could be said of an all-in move on a winger like Alex Tuch or Jordan Kyrou. That doesn’t hold true for Thomas.
While Thomas isn’t the difference-maker Kaprizov and Hughes are, he’s a productive, play-driving center, which is their biggest position of need. His age, position, and contract mean that he’ll retain his value longer than anyone else they can trade for. If the only thing standing between Guerin and a Thomas trade is the fear that something better might come along, the GM needs to clear that hurdle, and soon.
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