Feb. 25, 2026, 6:15 a.m. ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) and Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4) meet Wednesday at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT / HBO Max / truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Maple Leafs lead 1-0

The Maple Leafs won the first meeting of the season 2-0 Dec. 8 in Toronto, cashing as a slight home underdog (+105) as the Under (6.5) easily cashed. D Morgan Rielly scored a first-period goal, while Team USA gold medalist C Auston Matthews notched an unassisted empty-net goal and G Dennis Hildeby turned aside all 29 shots for the shutout. G Jonas Johansson was a hard-luck loser, allowing just a single goal on 24 shots.

Prior to the Olympics break, the Maple Leafs had won 3 in a row, including a 5-2 victory at the Edmonton Oilers as moderate underdogs (+158) as the total pushed (7) at most shops. Toronto has outscored the opponents 12-6 in the span, while the Under is an unusual 1-0-2 in the 3-game span.

The Lightning, leaders in the Atlantic Division, also entered the break on a roll. Tampa Bay won 5 in a row heading to the break, outscoring teams 22-10, while the Over has cashed in each of the past 3 outings.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:07 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Lightning -220 (bet $220 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-140) | Lightning -1.5 (+118)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Joseph Woll (13-7-4, 2.92 GAA, .908 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (26-7-3, 2.17 GAA, .916 SV%, 1 SO) 

Woll allowed 2 goals on 30 shots in a 4-2 win at the Calgary Flames in his most recent appearance, and he has won the past 2 games, both on the road. In fact, Woll is 3-0-2 in his past 5 starts, and he hasn’t lost in regulation away from home since Dec. 20 at the Nashville Predators.

Vasilevskiy was on fire prior to the OIympics break, winning 8 consecutive starts since a shootout loss at the St. Louis Blues Jan. 16. He has allowed 1 or no goals in 6 of those 8 victories. He hasn’t lost in regulation in 17 starts since Dec. 18 against the LA Kings.

Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2

The Lightning (-220) are too expensive to bet straight up, costing in excess of 2 times your potential return.

Even if you were to use a boost or prom, that’s too much risk for not enough reward. As part of a multi-leg parlay, Tampa Bay isn’t priced out of line, but make sure it is at least a 3- or 4-leg parlay to make it worth inclusion.

PASS as a straight up play.

The LIGHTNING -1.5 (+118) is the play, as Vasilevskiy is rested and raring to go, and all of Tampa Bay’s Olympians returned promptly. F Jake Guentzel skipped the White House and State of the Union festivities in Washington, D.C., to get acclimated after being overseas for the past 2 weeks.

The concern with the Leafs is that Matthews was in Milan on Sunday winning the Gold Medal for Team USA, then he was in Miami after the victory while celebrating with Team USA Monday, then he traveled to Washington to visit the White House and the State of the Union Tuesday night, so he could be a bit fatigued due to the whirlwind. The Leafs need all hands on deck against the first-place Lightning.

Under 6 is not a recommended play, as I expect the total to come right down on the number. If there was a lean, it would be to go low. As such, you can play UNDER 6.5 (-140) at FanDuel Sportsbook, paying up a bit. We aren’t likely to have a high-scoring games, as the teams settle back in after the long layoff.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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