Feb. 26, 2026, 6:20 a.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-14-4) and the Carolina Hurricanes (36-15-6) meet Thursday at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Hurricanes and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Lightning lead 1-0

These teams met at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa Dec. 20, with the Lightning winning 6-4 as a moderate favorite (-135) as the Over (5.5) cashed. Carolina fired out to a 3-0 lead after the first period, including 2 power-play goals by F Jackson Blake and F Bradly Nadeau, with the latter now back with Chicago of the AHL. The Lightning outscored the Canes 6-1 in the final 2 periods, with former F Jake Guentzel netting 2 goals.

Tampa Bay doubled up Toronto 4-2 in Tampa Wednesday as heavy favorites (-220) as the total (6) pushed. F Brayden Point led the way with 2 goals, while G Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 34 shots in the win. The Lightning have won 6 in a row, while going 20-1-1 in the past 22 games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games, with the Lightning going for 4+ goals in 5 in a row.

Carolina posted a 2-0 win over the New York Rangers as heavy favorites (-220) as the Under (6) easily hit Feb. 5 in the last game prior to the break. Calder and Vezina Trophy candidate G Brandon Bussi stopped 16 shots, while F Andrei Svechnikov had the game-winning goal and Jordan Staal added an empty-net goal.

The Hurricanes are also red-hot lately, going 8-0-2 in the past 10 games, while the Over has a slight 3-2 edge in the past 5 outings. Carolina has won 3 in a row at home, while going 8-0-1 in the past 9 games since Jan. 6. The Over is 6-3 in the 9-game span.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning at Hurricanes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:16 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Lightning +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Hurricanes -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-190) | Hurricanes -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -118 | U: -102)Lightning at Hurricanes projected goalies

Jonas Johansson (10-7-1, 2.92 GAA, .890 SV%) vs. Brandon Bussi (23-3-1, 2.16 GAA, .905 SV%, 2 SO)

Johansson is expected to make the start after Vasilevskiy picked up the win Thursday against the Maple Leafs. It’s highly unusual for a goaltender to start on consecutive nights. The last time Johansson started, he allowed 6 goals on 29 shots in an 8-5 loss in Columbus Jan. 24.

The last time we saw Bussi, he was barely breaking a sweat with 16 saves in a 2-0 victory on the road against the New York Rangers Feb. 5 for his second shutout of the season. He is 3-0-0 with a 1.65 GAA and .911 SV% with the shutout in 3 starts in February. Bussi has also won 7 consecutive starts.

Lightning at Hurricanes picks and predictionsPrediction

Hurricanes 3, Lightning 2

The HURRICANES (-150) are back on home ice after the long layoff due to the Olympics break.

The Lightning have lost once in regulation across the past 22 games since Dec. 20. The hot streak started in the first meeting Dec. 20 in Tampa against these Hurricanes.

It isn’t going to be easy, but Carolina is worth playing at home with its red-hot goaltender.

If you can’t bring yourself to take the visitor, Lightning +1.5 (-190) is just a little too expensive. Tampa Bay will set you back nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk.

On the flip side, prior to the Olympics break, Carolina had been involved in 4 one-goal games in the past 5 outings, while playing one-goal games in 8 of the previous 13 contests, so the favorite cannot be trusted on the puck line, either.

AVOID.

UNDER 6 (-102) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.

For the Hurricanes, prior to the Olympics, the Over was 8-3 in the previous 11 home games, although the Under cashed in 2 of the final 3 games before the hiatus. We saw 14 combined goals, or 4.7 goals per game, in that 3-game span.

The total pushed against the Leafs Wednesday, and the Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games. In starts by Johansson, the Over is 4-0-1 in the past 5 contests, so that’s why you should proceed with caution. However, the Under is 6-2 in the past 8 meetings in this series, too.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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