It is time for another edition of a late winter Battle of Ontario. Unfortunately for players, fans, and management, the game does not have the Stanley Cup Playoff feel that everyone had anticipated when they saw the schedule back in September. This is an all-Canadian, Saturday Hockey Night in Canada edition of featuring the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs. Find out our thoughts on storylines, statistics, and other details, next with Last Word On Hockey.

NHL Predictions Maple Leafs and Senators

Season Series: Toronto won 7-5 at the end of December, and they have a meeting left in March and one in April.

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST) | 8:30 p.m. Newfoundland Standard Time

How to Watch: Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS2

Location: Live from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario.

First and foremost, we must consider this is definitely the position both teams thought they’d find themselves at the outset of 2025-26. This rivalry is loaded with top-end talent like Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, William Nylander, and of course, Auston Matthews. It could end up opening up, or both teams could keep it tight checking. We prefer the former, naturally.

Looking at the Picture of the Standings

Last season saw a terrific playoff series that went six games between the two sides. Many of the players really established themselves, and it is a bit curious to see both teams take a step back. It does have somewhat to do with the rest of the Atlantic Division really exploding. The two biggest examples are likely the Buffalo Sabres and the Detroit Red Wings.

Rank – GP – Pts – Last 10

 Lightning 57 – 80 – 8-2-0
Red Wings 59 – 74 – 5-3-2
Sabres 59 – 74 – 7-2-1
Canadiens 58 – 73 – 6-2-2
Bruins 58 – 71 – 6-1-3
Senators 58 – 64 – 6-3-1
Panthers 59 – 63 – 4-6-0
Maple Leafs 59 – 63 – 3-6-1

The two teams’ current playoff odds aren’t pretty. Ottawa is better at 34.3%, but need wins. Toronto is 2.6%, and prepping for a lottery pick in 2026 NHL Entry Draft. They are sellers right now, but Ottawa is still in play. As for who could the Sens catch, for example, the Bruins sit at a 63.2% playoff probability.

Statistically, the two teams are pretty even. If we add the two teams power plays and penalty kills, Ottawa adds up to 96.2%, while Toronto is where they should be at 103.4%. Ottawa is hindered by their 30th ranked save percentage at 72.8%. The two teams’ respective goal scoring is very even (12th vs 14 ranks, for Ottawa and Toronto). Ottawa is slightly ahead in goals allowed, 23rd to Toronto’s 27th rank. Moreover, the two teams are one-two in faceoff percentage (Toronto 56% and Ottawa 54.9%). The other aspect if Ottawa comes in winner’s of five of their last seven games. Toronto had lost six straight, kind of eliminating them from realistic playoff contention. They did win three-in-a-row prior to the Olympic break. However, since returning to action they lost to Tampa Bay and Florida. Playoff aspirations aside, both teams want to prove they are the class of the province of Ontario.

The Analytical Breakdown for NHL Predictions

Ottawa is a very frustrating team to be a fan of this year. Their expected goal percentage at 5v5 is third in the entire NHL at 55.5%. Conversely, their goal differential above expected, is not good at -15.57, or 25th in the NHL. Toronto is 18th in that latter metric (-5.87). However, they are 24th in expected goal percentage (47.9%). Therefore, Toronto doesn’t generate as much offensive advantage analytically, but are slightly better at the bottom line. Ottawa is able to control games, but other teams’ superstars can sit back and strike. That’s why Toronto can be confident going into this one, despite the difference in the standings and recent record.

The Tenders

The goaltending matchup is expected to see Linus Ullmark (16-8-5) versus Joseph Woll (13-7-4). A very talented matchup, to be sure. Ullmark has a 2.83 goals-against average, an .884 save percentage, with one shutout. That is compared to Woll’s 2.76 GAA, .910 SV%, with a pair of blank sheets.

However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.

Who Generates Offence

As for their offensive creators, Tim Stutzle had his five-goal goal streak snapped Thursday night versus the Red Wings. However, with having been hot at the Olympics, he is still trending overall. But our pick for an anytime scorer for the Sens is Dylan Cozens. He had three-or-four excellent opportunities last time out. Moreover, he knows had to get open going to the net. When he gets those opportunities in tight, he needs to trust his skills and rip it high. Last game, he had two shots on goal, and a fight, and seven hits. Look for him to find twine.

The Leafs are led by their usual suspects. John Tavares has goals in three-straight games back to before the Olympics. Both Auston Matthews and William Nylander are hot as well. We think Matthew Knies can figure out Ullmark, but if it is a run-and-gun style of game, we can expect multiple goal scorers, from both sides. The top guys will surely be on the lookout for a steady diet of Jake Sanderson.

NHL Predictions

This game could go any old which way, but we do think it stays close. Ottawa desperately needs it, but Toronto will be playing more loosey, goosey. Honk. And fill the goal horn.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 4 – Senators 3, overtime victory. 

Prop Bets

Based on our discussion, our official anytime picks are Dylan Cozens and Matthew Knies. However, as we referenced, there are plenty of guys to have your head on a swivel for.

Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-IMAGN Images

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